Turn Question, Missed Raise?

[Georgia Peach]

Table is loose/passive, which is why I think I screwed up on the turn. I think I should have raised with the four flush....

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 folds, SB folds.

Turn: (7 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 13 BB, between UTG and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (13 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG shows Th Ah (two pair, aces and sixes).
Hero shows Qd Kd (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 13 BB. </font>

[sfer]

Raise the flop, bet the turn when it's checked to you. This is true especially at a loose table that will call down with weak hands. Your draw got better on the turn.

[Georgia Peach]

My opponent bet first. My question is should I have raised the turn?

[sthief09]

It seems like you're asking if you should've raised for value. Raising for value here is bad. You have 13 outs, assuming your K/Q outs won't win you the pot. That means you're a 33-13 underdog. Raising obviously only gives you even odds.

So clearly there's no value in raising the turn, because you are an underdog to an ace. BUT, there is a chance you'll win the pot right there.

Of the times your opponent calls, you'll win approximately 2 in 7, or 5-2. This is assuming your opponent calls your raise, which would lead to the conclusion that your opponent will pay you off on the river if you make your hand. This gives you 10-2 odds. If you don't raise the turn, you get 9-1 odds for making.

So let's say you just call 100 times:
28 times you'll win 9 bets
72 times you'll lose 1 bet
over 100 hands you'll win 180 bets
you make: 1.8 bets per hand

Let's say you raise 100 times:
(100-x) times your opponent will fold and you'll win 8 bets = 800 - 8x
x times your opponent will call:
.28x times you will win 10 bets = 2.8x
.72x times you will lose 2 bets = -1.44x

total= 800 - 8x - 1.44x + 2.8x = 800 - 6.64x
you make: 8 - .0664x

so for it to be an even proposition, he'll have to call x times for 1.8 = 8 - .0664x... x=93

So if your opponent will call your raise less than 7% of the time, it his a good raise to make. I obviously can't tell you this. It depends on your opponent and the situation. Here, obviously, your opponent wouldn't have folded, and just calling was the correct move.

Also consider the fact that you make just as many bets here by raising the river instead of the turn.

[sfer]

He bet the flop because he had TP. If you raised, representing a big Ace, he likely checks to you on the turn. Then you can bet the turn.

[JTG51]

No, you should not raise here if you think he's got an Ace. With 12 outs you are losing money with every extra bet that goes into the pot.

The only way raising the turn makes sense if you think your opponent will fold at least some of the time. That doesn't seem likely, so calling is best.