sanity check on all-in play which cost me 2nd

[eastbay]

I was in 2nd chip position with about 2500 chips. Chip leader had about 7000 chips. Small stack had about 500. Blinds are 100/200.

I got into a situation where I had top 2-pair on the turn, 1500 chips left, and about 2000 chips in the pot. I correctly assumed I had the best hand on a 2-suited board with no straights or straight draws, and pushed in.

I was called for an otherwise blank flush draw on the river card, which came in and I lost the hand.

I was out in 3rd, but if I'd won the hand, I would have doubled to about 5000 chips and chip leader would have been down to about 4500.

Now it seems to me when this guy's flush came in, he would've set me in anyway, and I would've called with top two pair, 3-suited board or no.

So maybe this was inescapable in any case?

eastbay

[David BB]

You played it fine imo. You're such a big favorite here that its worth taking a small risk and getting a much better shot at first place. Also its not really a big risk since most sensible players would fold a flush draw to your all-in.

Your opponent made a lousy call and got very lucky. Even if you knew your opponent would call you on a flush draw with the chance of busting you wouldn't you still make the all-in bet?

[Peter Harris]

yep, you had top two and flush draws sometimes are bad enough to make calls. That is true and probably what you wanted to hear.

The question is, by pushing you are committing yourself to the risk of being knocked out by the big stack. Sklansky talks about this in TPFAP - risking your chips against the big stack so a person with 500 chips limps into 2nd.

I would not make any push moves on this board; i would see what the river brings. If the big stack wins the pot, you are still a comfortable 2nd. Your primary concern with those stacks at this stage is wiping out Mr. 500 chips; what you did was give him a freeroll at 2nd place.

Unlucky about the flush draw, but probably a poor decision given the situation.

Comments to the contrary appreciated,
Peter Harris

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
yep, you had top two and flush draws sometimes are bad enough to make calls. That is true and probably what you wanted to hear.

The question is, by pushing you are committing yourself to the risk of being knocked out by the big stack. Sklansky talks about this in TPFAP - risking your chips against the big stack so a person with 500 chips limps into 2nd.

I would not make any push moves on this board; i would see what the river brings. If the big stack wins the pot, you are still a comfortable 2nd. Your primary concern with those stacks at this stage is wiping out Mr. 500 chips; what you did was give him a freeroll at 2nd place.

Unlucky about the flush draw, but probably a poor decision given the situation.

Comments to the contrary appreciated,
Peter Harris

[/ QUOTE ]

You haven't seemed to consider the fact that I have a very good shot at 1st if I take the hand (which is very likely), whereas I have a very poor shot at 1st if I let big stack have those chips (but a good shot at 2nd, which is gone if I lose it.) Considering the difference in payout between 1st and 2nd, and 2nd and 3rd, your position seems iffy at best.

Some quantitative analysis could convince me of your position, but nothing less.

eastbay

[Stagemusic]

Hey, you got your chips in when you had the best of it. That is all you could ask for. Your opponent made a very iffy call and was rewarded for it. I was also reading Peter's comment and really disagree with it. You are playing to win at that point with an excellent chance of doing just that. Good play, bad result. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Stoneii]

I'm just speculating here as to the chip leaders thoughts. Is his decision completely questionable?.

Perhaps, if he rates your play at least as good as his, then his thoughts could be that if he takes you out now, if his draw comes in, then he's almost certain for the win (9.5k v .5k) against small stack.

If he loses, then it's almost even between you both and you should both still put short stack out between you giving him an equal shot at taking it down anyway.

Maybe that thought process is what Peter was nibbling at?

cheers

stoneii

[Stagemusic]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just speculating here as to the chip leaders thoughts. Is his decision completely questionable?.

Perhaps, if he rates your play at least as good as his, then his thoughts could be that if he takes you out now, if his draw comes in, then he's almost certain for the win (9.5k v .5k) against small stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

I won't disagree with you here. That's the one reason that I called it an "iffy" call rather than a bad one. I really don't think I would want to risk half my stack on a draw against an all in player though. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Peter Harris]

i am no statistician. Which is one of my great faults.

What i see is that in this hand you have a 80% chance at being a slight chip lead (or 20% chance of busting out). If you do knock out the shortstack later, you are (in crude chip terms) a 50-50 proposition to take 1st.

If you get away from this hand and 3rd busts out shortly afterwards, you are about 20-25% to take 1st. But you have made the extra dollars between 3rd and 2nd place at zero risk instead of 80% risk.

It's one of these EV things and i can't wrap my head around it; i am a total beginner.

From what i see, the relevant factors are:

1) are you better than chip lead (will a 50-50 split be favouring you)?
1b) if so, could you beat him at a 25-75 split?

2) what are the prizes? (50%, 30%, 20%?) these will factor in significantly.

If someone can do the math, i would be interested in the outcome. I am not criticising your play; i was merely trying to apply theory i may have misunderstood to it. Like i said, all comments help me greatly.

I probably would have done exactly the same as you in the heat of the moment; hell, at 80% it's gotta be pretty solid, and you were unlucky. But was the bad luck a bad EV play?

I'd guess not at a SnG but yes at a multi where the prize pool is bigger.

Maths people, rise up! your poker players need you!

Peter Harris

[Peter Harris]

here's a link only 2 pages down the forum which is similar to this thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=589989&page=1&view=ex panded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=

about ev and risk.

Pete

[David BB]

Assuming this is a 100$ SNG for these EV calculations. The chances of winning based on stack size are estimates and should work for these calculations.

Lets say you bet all-in, and your opponent calls. In that case (assuming all your opponents flush outs are good, ie. none of them makes you a full house) you'll end up winning 0$ 20% of the time, 500$ 40% of the time, 300$ 35% of the time, and 200$ 5% of the time for an EV of 315$

If you simply fold and let your opponent take down the pot to avoid the risk of going broke. You'll win 500$ 15% of the time, 300$ 65% of the time, and 200$ 20% of the time for an EV of 300$

Hrmm.. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Did you have position over your opponent? Also is he so passive that he wont try to bluff should he miss his draw? Lets say you decide that you want to keep your last 1500 chips at any cost but would still like a chance at the pot, so you check it down and so does your opponent (he will bet if he hits his flush and you will fold, but in that case you would have lost a showdown anyway). 80% of the time you'll have 35% chance at 500$, 55% chance at 300$ and 10% chance at 200$ for an EV of 360$. 20% of the time you'll have and EV of 300$ like above for a total EV of 348$

So checking it down seems like your best option but this is assuming both that you opponent is passive and that you have been able to correctly put him on a flush draw.


Lets take a look at this from mr. flushdraw's point of view.

If he folds to your all-in bet he will have an EV of 415$. If he calls he wil have an EV of 406.6$

Thus folding is the right thing to do.

Am I way off here? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[David BB]

Made an error in the example where you bet all-in. Of course you don't finish outside the money if you go broke but take 3rd place. You will end up winning 200$ 25% of the time (not 0$ 20% of the time and 200$ 5% of the time) so your EV would be 355$ making the all-in bet your best move. And thats not even considering the posibillity that your opponent might fold.

[gunboat]

David says:

[ QUOTE ]
Your opponent made a lousy call and got very lucky. Even if you knew your opponent would call you on a flush draw with the chance of busting you wouldn't you still make the all-in bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Without knowing the big stack's hand, we cannot make this judgment yet. Did he have other outs besides the flush draw? Adding a gutshot and bottom pair would add 5 outs which would make the call correct.