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View Full Version : Hold Em winning %s if played out


Phishy McFish
03-22-2004, 03:30 PM
OK....has it been determined how often statistically each hand would win in Hold Em? Specifically, I'm curious to see how often top pair or 2nd high pair on the board would win. I'm sure it depends on the number of players. I would most likely care about 1-on-1 games.

uuDevil
03-22-2004, 04:25 PM
You can easily look at any specific situation you are interested in. Check out this site: http://www.twodimes.net/

Wake up CALL
03-22-2004, 06:08 PM
Try this website Percentage of Holdem Hands Won (http://gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm)

Phishy McFish
03-23-2004, 02:45 PM
I know about 2 dimes.....I'm looking for something not specific to the cards that are dealt. Such as, how often does "Top pair" win?

Wake up CALL
03-24-2004, 12:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I know about 2 dimes.....I'm looking for something not specific to the cards that are dealt. Such as, how often does "Top pair" win?

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are seeking cannot exist. If it did the poker bots (instead of Dutch Boyd) would "Take over the poker world".

uuDevil
03-24-2004, 04:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I know about 2 dimes.....I'm looking for something not specific to the cards that are dealt. Such as, how often does "Top pair" win?

[/ QUOTE ]
I seem to be making a habit of answering the wrong question, but....

This problem depends on:
1) Number of opponents (assume 1)
2) Rank of the pair
3) Rank and suit of the kicker (assume random)
4) Other cards on the flop (assume random, but smaller than your top pr)
5) The cards your opponents hold (assume random)

Except for condition 4, you can do this problem with a program called Poker Calculator, which you can get here. (http://koti.mbnet.fi/jraevaar/pokercalculator/) This program allows you to define a range of cards that make up a hand. Unfortunately the version I have doesn't allow you to do this for the flop cards. So while this doesn't quite answer the question you are asking, there may very well be similar programs that will.

I think condition 4 could be addressed and the problem solved exactly using combinatorics but I am way too lazy to do that. I am not sure how useful it would be, pokerbot or no (re: Wake up). As with many problems, you have to make a lot of assumptions to get a precise answer so then the answer isn't widely applicable, if at all /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

Anyway, below are some specific situations I looked at with Poker Calculator. Note that X represents a random card. (This is the first time I have tried this so I would appreciate it if someone were to check these results.)

Holding KX with a flop of KXX, you win 83% against one random hand.

Holding 9X with a flop of 9XX, you win 74% against 1 random hand.

Holding 5X with a flop of 5XX, you win 66% against 1 random hand.

Note that these numbers are the result of Monte Carlo simulations so are NOT EXACT but probably are good to <1%.