Fold an overpair to a single bet?

[maurile]

$3-$6 at Viejas (B&M). I'm in middle position with QQ.

UTG raises. I 3-bet. BB calls. UTG caps, I call, BB calls. (UTG is a solid player. BB is a fish.)

Flop is T 7 4 rainbow.

BB checks, UTG bets, I raise, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, I call, BB calls.

At this point, I'm fairly sure AA or KK (or both) are out there, and I'm behind. I can't fold to one small bet here, though. I have at least two outs (with implied odds if a Q comes on the turn), and besides, it's still possible UTG has JJ and I'm ahead. It's hard for me to put BB on a hand since he could play two overcards [AK, KQ, etc] this way.)

Turn is a 3, completing rainbow.

BB checks, UTG bets, I call, BB calls.

Was this a bad call? It's hard for me not to put UTG on AA or KK, or maybe TT. I guess it's still possible that he has JJ, though.

River is a J. UTG bets.

Oops. I can no longer justify a call by hoping he's got JJ. Nobody's got 89, so I'm not worried about a straight. I can't put anybody on two pair, either. AA, KK, JJ, and TT all beat me. There's nothing I can put UTG on that I can beat. But can I really fold?

I call one bet on the river because the pot is so big. BB calls. UTG shows his AA.

Should I have gotten away from this hand at any point? I don't think it would have been a bad call on the river against some players at this table, but UTG wouldn't have capped pre-flop without a big pocket pair or a suited AK or AQ. He wouldn't have 3-bet out of position on the flop with AK or AQ, so I had to put him on a big pocket pair. And every big pocket pair had my queens beat. Was I a fish on this hand?

Also, should I have capped on the flop, hoping to get BB out if he had overcards, or possibly slow UTG down on the turn (where I could take a free card)?

[Schmed]

Hard to get away from it. The preflop cap tells you a lot. For the AVG player it says not only a made hand but a made big hand, (QQ,AA,KK), not to many people even cap with JJ. I think the next level kind of players get away from this hand on the turn after being 3 bet on the flop. I haven't done the math but I have to think for an SB you are getting pretty close to odds to hit your set on the turn. He probably pays you off pretty well too. I don't think I could muster a fold there. The river you're dead time to fold there really is nothing he could have that you could beat except AK and I doubt from your description he is a player playing AK like that.

The only rational for calling on that river is if you haven't called one down yet. The fish will start thinking they can make you fold and take shots at you.

[LetsRock]

It seems like you had a pretty confident read of the raiser and chose to ignore it. I've seen a lot of players cap AK or AQ and play it strong all the way, so if it was unknown player, your call is correct.

But I get the impression you were about 95% sure he had a big PP, all of which besides QQ beat you. Seems like you should have saved the last bet, but as they say, it's better to lose an extra bet instead of losing the pot. I don't hink it's a huge mistake, but it sounds like you need to trust your reads.

[Louie Landale]

Given your analsis you should have folded when the only hand he CAN have just outdrew you.

But lets look at this one again. You paid him off reluctantly. You should have forseen that was going to happen back on the flop. To prevent that then you SHOULD have capped the flop so long as you COULD lay this one down later. Putting pressure on the BB is icing on the cake.

I'd say by capping PF, 3-betting the flop and getting the bet on the turn IS enough information for most typical opponents. Fold this one on the turn.

But this "getting information" play only works if you ARE in doubt if you call but WILL NOT be in doubt if you raise.

Right or wrong, go with your analysis next time.

- Louie

[BigEndian]

Your opponent could also have QQ. I don't think you can fold this.

- Jim

[The Dude]

On the turn is the correct place to lay down this hand. Your pre-flop and flop action is fine, and going on your read (that this is a solid player), you correctly saw that you were in trouble.

When he bets into you on the turn, you need to decide what you're going to do on the river before you act now. You need 22:1 odds to play for your set, and you're only getting about 11:1 immediate odds - not nearly enough to spike your set on the river. Assuming that you will have to call one more bet on the river and that BB will call as well, you're getting almost 7:1 odds to call down.

So ask yourself the question. Is my hand good 1 time in 8? The only possible hands he can have are AA - TT. I think you know JJ isn't going to be the case 1 in 8 (against an LAG, you might be okay to call, but not against a solid player betting into two opponents - one of whom is a fish who almost surely isn't going anywhere).

On the river, your fold becomes even easier. There is now no possible hand that you can reasonably put him on that you beat. Your hand would need to be good 1 in 14 times to make calling correct. I guess you could fantasize about him having AKs and putting in a pure bluff on the end, but you and I both know that can't be the case.

Save yourself a couple BBs, fold on the turn.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
...but as they say, it's better to lose an extra bet instead of losing the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
They do say that, but they're wrong. When you call a bet, you don't lose the whole bet. You lose only a percentage of the bet depending on how likely you are to be beat. In the same way, when you fold the winner you don't lose the whole pot. You only lose a percentage of the pot.

Let me illustrate, and this will be very similar to the hand in question. Let's say you play a pot with JJ. According to how the action went down, your opponent can have ONLY AA-TT. The highest card on the board is a T. That means you lose to all 18 combinations of AA-QQ, you lose to the 3 combinations of TT, and you chop with the only other combination of JJ. So you have a 50% equity 1 time in 22, and a 0% equity the other 21 times. Let's say there's 9 BB in the pot and he bets into you. If you call, you don't lose a whole BB, since there is a chance you can chop. (You actually lose .75 BBs) And if you fold, you only give up your .23 BB equity in the pot.

So as you can see, the only thing that really matters is which play is +EV (or the least -EV). Don't get fooled into thinking "I would rather lose one bet than lose the whole pot." Calling is actually a much worse mistake when you are beat than folding is when you are good.

The only time the "rather lose one bet than the whole pot" concept applies is when you are playing in a tournament and your bankroll is therefore extremely limited. It is fallacious to try and apply this concept to regular ring games.