Worst beat ever!

[Bling]

I want you all to bookmark this post to come and read it when you think you just took one in the keister.

In a 10$ rebuy tournament total purse of about 30k Blinds are 600/1200 +75 and there are less than 80 places to go until the money.

I am dealt Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif on the button. UTG calls MP calls I decide to call on the button SB completes and BB checks 5 to see the pot (6600)

Flop comes 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

It is checked to me I bet 1200 and am called by UTG. (9000)

Turn 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 /images/graemlins/club.gif)

UTG checks I bet 3600 and am called (16200 pot)

River 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif (Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif)

UTG checks, I bet 4800 and get raised 4800 so I push in with my remaining 4800 + 471 more and am all in.

I just doubled up here right? WRONG!! the dude had both of the black Queens to make his 1 out full house on the river.

This is a classic case of someone playing a hand so bad and it pays off. Had he raised any preflop I was out of the hand. Had he raised any during the hand I would have pushed all in which surely would have told him he was beat (maybe not) One of these days ill come back and post about the time I hit my one outer, but honestly I dont think it has ever happened to me.

[SaintAces]

Not.

Although that's a tough one. Try a runner runner perfect. (runner-runner straight flush to be your quads)

[Bling]

[ QUOTE ]
Not.

Although that's a tough one. Try a runner runner perfect. (runner-runner straight flush to be your quads)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea real awesome (FOR HIM! /images/graemlins/frown.gif ) And to make it even worse. He had only 1 Q to catch since I held the other one. I have yet to see a runner runner Str8 flush beat 4 of a kind. I hope the day I do Im sitting at a live table with a huge bad beat jackpot!

[DcifrThs]

Although that is a terrible terrible beat (WORSE than straight flush to beat quads since you can hit 1 of 2 cards on the turn and then the final one on the river) i think your preflop call and flop play of the hand was wrong. you're in a tourney now trying to survive to the big money.

you're aim here is not to try to squeeze every bit you can out of every hand you're dealt. fold this preflop and wait for a better holding. yes he made a mistake by calling preflop but after you're weak flop bet he may have, mistakenly, figured he was way ahead and that you're hand had little change of improving to something better than his. that is the relative values of your hands would hold constant and he could slowplay a bit and get more out of you (his mistake but what he likely thought).

you should bet quite a bit more on the flop as well. and if not the flop...then certainly the turn. this is a coordinated board and you were giving him cheap cards to beat your very beatable trips (any straight/flush beats 'em). betting 1200 into 9000 giving a draw that chance is bad. similarly, betting 3600 into 16200 is equally bad.

if he has a hand he's calling with he'll call more. don't give that cheap shot to a bad player b/c he'll take it all the time. he doesn't understand draws don't come in all the time and he needs to conserve chips here.

you clearly had a decent stack and need to survive, not push q7s.

yes the beat is the worst one possible in the game of texas holdem, but it is also true you're play here could have been much much better. why wait till you're an underdog to push in?? you could have gotten much more out of him when he was a big dog by betting more on the flop and turn.

good luck.
-Barron

[cnfuzzd]

That is bad. I think a worse beat was posted around a week or so ago. Someone held 34 clubs i believe. Flop comes A25 clubs, for the straight flush. 4th&5th are TQ clubs. Someone holds KJc. Ouch.

Peace

John nickle

[crockpot]

if i knew that limping with queens would entice my opponents to call with Q7, i would do it virtually every time.

[SaintAces]

that IS a bad beat then /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Bling]

Are you kidding me? I called because i was gettin 5:1 with postion to begin with which means I am able to pick up the pot an any point in the hand where I sense weakenss since I am last to bet. If I didnt do this periodically in tournament play I would be blinded out before the money every time. When I hit trips with a rainbow flop I think it is fairly safe to milk this pot as nobody will likely put me on 3 7s and I will most likely be called by people holding an over pair. And as far as why did I wait till i was behind to push? Well how many of us here can river a full house and honestly think they are behind. that was the only over card on the board I had 1 in my hand so no other full house EXCEPT the Quees full could have beat me. I would not change the way I played it at all..

[scrub]

If you avoid going broke long enough, you will get beaten like this so many times you don't even notice anymore.

The fact that you seem unable to consider whether you could have played the hand better doesn't bode well for your chances, though.

scrub

[josie_wales]

Preflop: Fold
Flop: Bet bigger to take it down

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

JW

[Bling]

Beleive me I am traditionally very conservative in tournament play seeing between 8% and 12% of the flops. Lately, i have been trying to ,under the right conditions. (i.e. on the button 2 limpers with suited cards) play hands that I would otherwise not get involved with. In this case it is going to be extremely easy to get away from this hand if I don't flop favorably and even if i do hit a flush draw or top pair etc I can still lay it down with ease with any resistance. Would you have me believe that professional tournament players NEVER make this type of play? If you ONLY play top 10 hands do you not become predictable and easy to read? I want to win with a hand like this every now and then so that when I do try to make a move at a pot when I think my opponent has missed the flop he or she will have that Q7 hand in the back of their head and wonder just what I have. At least this is my latest approach to tournament play.

I have had a difficult time making it to the final table in these touraments. I used to never deviate from my tight pre-flop strategy and have made it in money playing like that but I usually find myself in the situation of having to go all in or fold just to survive that long. I have recently begun to play a few more hands under the right situations (like this one) to try to find the ideal tournament style. Perhaps some of the consistently successfull tournament players can chime in on their starting hand chriteria and whether or not they ever deviate under the right situations...

[DcifrThs]

you just said it. you were trying to milk it b/c nobody put you on 3 7's. BUT you did not address the giving bad players cheap shots to beat your hand in a late stage in a tournament.

THAT is my major critisizm here. yea q7s i would muck but you clearly feel you can play it and thats boarderline so take it. but you need to make bad players pay the max to beat your hand in this spot. you better beleive i'm going all in on the river here...duh! but the turn and flop i would have bet a lot more when i KNOW i'm a favorite and a bad player is there with me AND there's straight AND flush draws on board.

i'd read TPFAP again if you still really disagree with betting more on the flop and turn. river you're clearly all in no question.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Beleive me I am traditionally very conservative in tournament play seeing between 8% and 12% of the flops. Lately, i have been trying to ,under the right conditions. (i.e. on the button 2 limpers with suited cards) play hands that I would otherwise not get involved with. In this case it is going to be extremely easy to get away from this hand if I don't flop favorably and even if i do hit a flush draw or top pair etc I can still lay it down with ease with any resistance. Would you have me believe that professional tournament players NEVER make this type of play? If you ONLY play top 10 hands do you not become predictable and easy to read? I want to win with a hand like this every now and then so that when I do try to make a move at a pot when I think my opponent has missed the flop he or she will have that Q7 hand in the back of their head and wonder just what I have. At least this is my latest approach to tournament play.

I have had a difficult time making it to the final table in these touraments. I used to never deviate from my tight pre-flop strategy and have made it in money playing like that but I usually find myself in the situation of having to go all in or fold just to survive that long. I have recently begun to play a few more hands under the right situations (like this one) to try to find the ideal tournament style. Perhaps some of the consistently successfull tournament players can chime in on their starting hand chriteria and whether or not they ever deviate under the right situations...

[/ QUOTE ]

AGAIN. preflop is NOT the MAJOR issue with this hand!!! your play on the flop and turn is. please consider playing it differently...thats all i ask.

-Barron

[Bling]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Fold
Flop: Bet bigger to take it down

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

JW

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt want to take it down after the flop. At this point I am about 99.99% sure I am WAY ahead unless he hit a set or called with A7 or K7 UTG which is very unlikely. I lucked out with this flop and want to exploit it for all I can. How paranoid are you guys telling me to shut out my opponent after the flop with this monster hand!? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Sure hindsight is 20/20 and I MAY have pushed him off of his QQ overpair, but i think given the same situation 100 times milking the pot for slightly larger bets each card will be far more profitable than taking down the 6k that was there after the flop dont you agree?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
That is bad. I think a worse beat was posted around a week or so ago. Someone held 34 clubs i believe. Flop comes A25 clubs, for the straight flush. 4th&5th are TQ clubs. Someone holds KJc. Ouch.

Peace

John nickle



[/ QUOTE ]

Yes these are both bad beats. but catching perfect runner runner s.f. is STILL not as bad as what happened here given all information.

think about it. on the turn the r.r. s.f. can catch EITHER one of two cards! the qq can only catch 1. this makes the former 989:1 against and the latter is 1979:1 against!!! this is a MAJOR difference in that there can be an extra card caught on the turn in a sense.

again. if the KcJc has the Ac on the flop and is against a lower straight flush, it can still catch EITHER the Qc OR the Tc on the turn. it is on the river it can only catch 1 card out of the remaining unknown 44 (as above i assumed both hands were known and full outs counted).

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

YES! i agree 100%, but that is AGAIn not the issue. there are too many draws out there and the maximum profit is NOT YOUR ONLY CONCERN. if you do allow a lesser hand to draw out...and there are a lot of them that bad players will limp with..then you are gone. out of the tourney. no rebuys. therefore your max. profit MUST be taken into account with respect to your standard deviation in this spot.

you must be able to answer the following: can you fold if an opponent calls and a club hits? how about a ten? or a 9? or a 5? now we can start to see how delicate this situation really is. betting 1200 into 9000 and 3600 into 16200 or whatever is just not smart IN THIS SPOT, WITH THAT BOARD.

further, if you only bet like this with monsters, the better players at your table will take note and murder you later in the tourney.

i think you are just a bit too close minded right now. read these posts a few times. reread Tourney poker for advanced players (assuming you've already read it). and THEN think about your max. profit and what your goals really are in this spot.

good luck
-Barron

[scrub]

It's a worse beat considered from the standpoint of the turn, when the runner runner SF has already hit one of its outs, assuming that it's not a gutter SF draw.

It's not anywhere near as bad of a beat when you consider that the QQ has two chances to catch its last Q, while the SF has to catch perfect or near perfect twice in a row.

Runner runner SF is a worse beat than hitting 1 out once in two tries.

Runner runner quads v. a set higher than the PP that sucks out is also worse than this beat. And if you play long enough, you'll see it more than once. If you understand the game, you won't even be tempted to whine about it.

scrub

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a worse beat considered from the standpoint of the turn, when the runner runner SF has already hit one of its outs, assuming that it's not a gutter SF draw.

It's not anywhere near as bad of a beat when you consider that the QQ has two chances to catch its last Q, while the SF has to catch perfect or near perfect twice in a row.

Runner runner SF is a worse beat than hitting 1 out once in two tries.

Runner runner quads v. a set higher than the PP that sucks out is also worse than this beat. And if you play long enough, you'll see it more than once. If you understand the game, you won't even be tempted to whine about it.

scrub

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you are thinking but you have to understand from a probabalistic point of view from the FLOP it is just plain wrong. even the higher PP vs. made quads on the flop is NOT AS BAD AS THIS BEAT given all information. yes, they are DEAD EVEN on the turn since only one card will make it in both cases. on the turn the higher pocket pair has exactly 1 out of two cards left to give him trips. THEN on the river he has exactly 1 card to give him quads. the possibility of catching either one of those two cards on the turn is what makes it 989:1 vs. 1979:1.

if you don't see this i highly suggest you consult your math books and or probability texts one more time.

PS- before i realized this same thing i posted (about a month ago)that the runner runner straight flush was the worst beat at 1979:1 against. Bigpooch, who is an expert mathematician corrected me and showed me why it was not 1979:1. it is because the runner runner straight flush can catch either needed card on the turn. this cuts the odds virtually in half and makes it much less of a dog (half as much of a dog) as it would be if it was forced to catch one card but had 2 chances.

please reply that you either understand this or need further clarification.

-Barron

[BradleyT]

I had a hand come up just like this. In a $3 satellite to a $215 tourney. Still early on but a bit after the rebuy period.

I'm in BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif One guy in LP min raises which I take for a steal so I call.
Flop:A/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif
He checks, I check.

Turn 5/images/graemlins/club.gif
He bets 3xBB and I call.

River 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

and now I've got quads. He goes all in (some huge amount) and before I call I say in chat, "Can you beat A9?" to which he replies, "Yes, I've got AA". So I gladly call, he shows his losing aces. He says in chat that he didn't even notice the three 9's on the board and was slowplaying HIS monster...while the whole time I'm slowplaying MY monster (that was beat until the river).

I knew that had to be a sign of good luck and I went on to win a seat /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
I see what you are thinking but you have to understand from a probabalistic point of view from the FLOP it is just plain wrong. even the higher PP vs. made quads on the flop is NOT AS BAD AS THIS BEAT given all information. yes, they are DEAD EVEN on the turn since only one card will make it in both cases. on the turn the higher pocket pair has exactly 1 out of two cards left to give him trips. THEN on the river he has exactly 1 card to give him quads. the possibility of catching either one of those two cards on the turn is what makes it 989:1 vs. 1979:1.

if you don't see this i highly suggest you consult your math books and or probability texts one more time.

PS- before i realized this same thing i posted (about a month ago)that the runner runner straight flush was the worst beat at 1979:1 against. Bigpooch, who is an expert mathematician corrected me and showed me why it was not 1979:1. it is because the runner runner straight flush can catch either needed card on the turn. this cuts the odds virtually in half and makes it much less of a dog (half as much of a dog) as it would be if it was forced to catch one card but had 2 chances.

please reply that you either understand this or need further clarification.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok Barron, I'll try saying this real slow and posting an enumerated board from twodimes for you. Catching one out in two tries can't be any worse than catching one out in one try, right? So getting TWO chances to draw to one out can't be less likely than 1/44, right???

We've seen two hands QQ and Q7. We've also seen three cards on the flop. That means that there are 52-7 = 45 unseen cards on the flop.

P(bad beat) = 1 - (44/45)(43/44) = 88/1980 = ~22:1

If you can't take my word for it, try twodimes:

pokenum -h qh 7h - qc qs -- 7s 7d 6c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qh 7h 947 95.66 43 4.34 0 0.00 0.957
Qs Qc 43 4.34 947 95.66 0 0.00 0.043

Do you feel better about my understanding of probability now, or should I post further confirmation for you so that you can sleep at night knowing I won't be misevaluating the badness of horribly played tournament beats?

scrub

[ZeroGee]

[Bling]

Im starting to understand... Would you recommend a pot sized bet after the flop or push immediately?

One thing I forgot to mention about the hand is that the guy in question was in the top 10 of chip leaders and had me covered by about 30k. So given that he probably thought that he was leading and that he wasnt going to get busted out by calling I think I am a dead duck here no matter how I bet.

As a general rule of thumb should I be putting in pot sized bets when I am relatively certain I hold the best hand?

PS. I think TPFAP is the only poker book I have not read, but I ordered it immediately after your suggestion /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[scrub]

Ok, ten minutes later and I'm incredibly embarassed. I was completely out of line--I haven't been getting a lot of sleep the past few days and I'm a lot crankier than I realized. The edit timer has run out on my post, so I guess I'm stuck with a permanent testament to the fact that I'm a jackass. Sorry again.

scrub

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see what you are thinking but you have to understand from a probabalistic point of view from the FLOP it is just plain wrong. even the higher PP vs. made quads on the flop is NOT AS BAD AS THIS BEAT given all information. yes, they are DEAD EVEN on the turn since only one card will make it in both cases. on the turn the higher pocket pair has exactly 1 out of two cards left to give him trips. THEN on the river he has exactly 1 card to give him quads. the possibility of catching either one of those two cards on the turn is what makes it 989:1 vs. 1979:1.

if you don't see this i highly suggest you consult your math books and or probability texts one more time.

PS- before i realized this same thing i posted (about a month ago)that the runner runner straight flush was the worst beat at 1979:1 against. Bigpooch, who is an expert mathematician corrected me and showed me why it was not 1979:1. it is because the runner runner straight flush can catch either needed card on the turn. this cuts the odds virtually in half and makes it much less of a dog (half as much of a dog) as it would be if it was forced to catch one card but had 2 chances.

please reply that you either understand this or need further clarification.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok Barron, I'll try saying this real slow and posting an enumerated board from twodimes for you. Catching one out in two tries can't be any worse than catching one out in one try, right? So getting TWO chances to draw to one out can't be less likely than 1/44, right???

We've seen two hands QQ and Q7. We've also seen three cards on the flop. That means that there are 52-7 = 45 unseen cards on the flop.

P(bad beat) = 1 - (44/45)(43/44) = 88/1980 = ~22:1

If you can't take my word for it, try twodimes:

pokenum -h qh 7h - qc qs -- 7s 7d 6c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6c 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qh 7h 947 95.66 43 4.34 0 0.00 0.957
Qs Qc 43 4.34 947 95.66 0 0.00 0.043

Do you feel better about my understanding of probability now, or should I post further confirmation for you so that you can sleep at night knowing I won't be misevaluating the badness of horribly played tournament beats?

scrub

[/ QUOTE ]

i do feel better thank you. stupid but better.

in a previous post, you stated:

"It's not anywhere near as bad of a beat when you consider that the QQ has two chances to catch its last Q, while the SF has to catch perfect or near perfect twice in a row."

this equates to:

P(SFbadbeat)=(2/45)*(1/44)=2/1980=1/990

P(QQbadbeat)=(1/45)+(44/45)*(1/44)=1/45+44/1980=88/1980.

hmmm. had i done this calculation instead of:

P(QQbadbeat)= (1/45)*(1/44)=1/1980

then i might have caught my mistake and avoided embarassment.

instead i am caught looking quite the fool b/c of a classical simple error of which i refused to let go.

if only my thinking away from the felt battlefield could be as flexible as it is there (due to forced concentration) then this silliness could have been avoided.

since that flexibility is clearly lacking here i must humbly apologize for my tone and seek forgiveness.

Therefore, i'm sorry and i'll look to avoid such carelessness in calculations and in prognostication in the future.

take care,
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, ten minutes later and I'm incredibly embarassed. I was completely out of line--I haven't been getting a lot of sleep the past few days and I'm a lot crankier than I realized. The edit timer has run out on my post, so I guess I'm stuck with a permanent testament to the fact that I'm a jackass. Sorry again.

scrub

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. great minds think alike right? although mistaken at times...

go read my response to your post and you'll see what i mean. we both apologized at the same time, you for your tone and me for mine and my careless error.

so, no hard feelings and no worries.

good luck
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Im starting to understand... Would you recommend a pot sized bet after the flop or push immediately?

One thing I forgot to mention about the hand is that the guy in question was in the top 10 of chip leaders and had me covered by about 30k. So given that he probably thought that he was leading and that he wasnt going to get busted out by calling I think I am a dead duck here no matter how I bet.

As a general rule of thumb should I be putting in pot sized bets when I am relatively certain I hold the best hand?

PS. I think TPFAP is the only poker book I have not read, but I ordered it immediately after your suggestion /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

no worries, man...you should read below and see the tiff i got into with scrub when i was way out of line...it happens.

with respect to your betting on the flop and turn you have to think about what he has and more importantly, YOUR STACK, HIS STACK, the REST of the stacks and the stage of the tournament. further, the blind increase schedule and table break-up schedule factor in a bit but not much in this spot.

if he has many more chips than the rest of the tourney players he may be in "fast mode" (trying to get every bit of "ev" out of every hand) and therefore he may be limping with a big pair or good hand in addition to lower quality but still decent holdings.

here, i'd make a pot sized bet in the same "call THIS" manner in which i make all bets and look him dead in the eye (which i do anyway so nothing is given away here...go read elysium's method of "I BET" BAM, "I BET" and you'll get an idea). if he flat calls i'll certainly put him on a big pair or other good holding that he's willing to go down wth and if he checks the turn i'd move in.

if he bets on the turn i'd move in...either way the pot sized bet on the flop accomplishes a lot more!.

further, another point i forgot to mention but which is HUGELY important here is the relative value of your chips. since he has many more than you, each individual chip is less valuable to him than each individual chip is to you given your relative stack sizes. so by betting only 1200 into 9000 you bet MORE for you and LESS for him.

he only had to call with the equivalent of lets say 600 if he had you by 2:1. thats a real cheap card for him and a big mistake for you. in other words, for you to make him call with the equivalent of 9000 chips when he has you by MANY chips you'd have to bet almost double the pot...

these concepts are clearly covered by the TPFAP so you'll see 'em all enumerated in the classic sklansky style when you receive your copy.

good luck.
-Barron

[Bling]

I HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT!

The comment about relative value of chips is one that I suprisingly haven't really thought of. I think that alone will help my tournament play.

thanks Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT!

The comment about relative value of chips is one that I suprisingly haven't really thought of. I think that alone will help my tournament play.

thanks Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

don't worry!! it really isn't surprising and i didn't just think of that by myself either. it was explained to me in gambling theory and other topics lol. then sklansky goes about it much more directly in the following manner in TPFAP:

he says to think of it like selling your chips in the WSOP. at the beginning you have $10000. you can sell 'em for $10000. but if you win you'll have $2million in chips but only $1million in prize money so somebody would have to be an idiot to buy 'em for their face value of $2million.

mason and david have referred to the running joke that winning a tourney is a "bad beat" since you earned more in playing than you get paid in prize money.

there are much more valuable pieces of advice in TPFAP than this but it takes this general understanding to digest it all and get the quizzes right.

again, hope the best for ya and good luck.
-Barron