I raise preflop, but overcards fall

[rjc199]

This seems to be a question alot of newbies ask. Here is a hand:

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (12 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 15 BB, between UTG+1, MP2 and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by UTG+1 (15 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 shows Qd Qh (one pair, queens).
MP2 shows As 8c (one pair, eights).
Hero shows Jd Js (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 15 BB. </font>

Should I have checked the turn through, or did I play it right by A) assuming my hand was best, or B) by not giving a flush draw a free card, or both A and B? During the hand I had figured that I was ahead of UTG+1 and didn't really notice that there was a flush draw. I know I should pay more attention to the board.

[Zetack]

You can't call that flop. You have to either raise or fold. I raise it and see how utg+1 reacts. If he three bets you, trouble territory. If he calls and bets into you again on the turn or c/r you on the turn--trouble again.

A lot of players will never release QQ but you can see this guy was scared of the king--even with no raise behind him after his flop bet he never bet out again. Your three bet pf had him thinking you had AA, KK, or A-K. Raise the flop then bet the turn maybe you take this pot.

But whether it wins you the pot or not, you have to either fold or raise the flop and see how utg+1 reacts.

--Zetack.

[JSD]

I raise this flop nearly 100% of the time, trying to knock SB out and to see what UTG+1 has. His EP raise could have been AQ, AJ, TT, or any number of things that you're still ahead of.

If its re-reaised back, then I'm giving him credit for at least a king. I'd probably call to see the turn because at that point you're getting just about the 22:1 odds you need on your 2-outer, even if SB and MP2 drop. And the pot is big.

[Webster]

I would also raise on the flop hoping for a free card. You are probebly beat BUT he could have an ace hoping to scare you.

Then see what he does. If I had a K I would reraise, If I don't I would fold. Put yourself in his shoes.

Very few people will bluff a reraise so a reraise confirms you are beat. if he calls you might get a free card the rest of the way.

of course - it's easier to say that actually do sometimes. Espicially if you have been getting wacked lately.

[rjc199]

No, I was running high at the time of this hand.

Next time I will reraise.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I would also raise on the flop hoping for a free card. You are probebly beat BUT he could have an ace hoping to scare you.

Then see what he does. If I had a K I would reraise, If I don't I would fold. Put yourself in his shoes.

Very few people will bluff a reraise so a reraise confirms you are beat. if he calls you might get a free card the rest of the way.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have no problem visualizing UTG+1 reraising the flop with a suited A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I can also imagine him calling and checkraising the turn with AK. Don't jump to conclusions.

You absolutely don't want a free card. By your own theory, you expect to be ahead if he doesn't bet the turn. Why on Earth would you give the whole table a free card? The actual play of seizing the initiative when UTG+1 checked the turn was undoubtedly correct even though it didn't work out.

[Ed Miller]

You played well.

[Trix]

Why not fold on the flop ?

[sthief09]

14 bets in the pot at the time of the call, but very little implied odds with only 2 others in.

- big pot
- I'd say there's about a 20% chance he's ahead on the flop given his opponent's choice to not cap the pot pre-flop (leading me to believe that he doesn't have AA, KK, QQ, and less likely he has AK since many people cap with it... I know this is wrong, but on the flop you don't know this is a bad assumption)
- He has 1 clean out, and one possibly, but not necessarily dirty out. With only 4 people in the pot, there's a very good chance the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif won't give someone else a flush.
- If he raises the flop, he completely screws his odds, which are important since we believe that he is behind. He can wait for the turn to hope that UTG+1 was betting the flop with crap and will check/fold the turn.


My first instinct was to raise here, because people so frequently bet into a raiser, then fold to a raise, but I think there's such a good chance he's behind that a raise only hurts his odds. I might be inclined to fold the turn if bet into, and bet if checked to, which is what he did.

To the original poster: were you planning on calling all 3 streets?

Assuming (big assumption) the 2 other people stay in for all 3 streets, you're getting 19-5 effective odds (13 SB preflop, 2 SB flop, 2 BB turn and river). This means you have to have a 20.8% chance of winning the hand. Given the ~8% chance you spike a J, winning say 90% of the time, that's like 7.2% (.9*.8). That means you'd have to be 13.6% sure you'll win unimproved. I think that's reasonable.

Again, my instincts say raise or fold, but it seems like the odds offered by the big pot justify calling.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
A) assuming my hand was best

[/ QUOTE ]

[StellarWind]

Newbie question or not, this is a hard hand.

I'd guess there is a 50% chance then one of your "other" two opponents has a king, QQ, set of 8's, or other hand that beats you. If you believe that UTG+1 is also a big favorite to be ahead of you then your chance of winning the hand is probably too low to justify the expense of calling to the river. If you think UTG+1 is only a small favorite to be ahead of you then calling down is likely to be +EV.

That means it depends on UTG+1. Is he the kind of guy who would open raise with AQ, AJ, TT, and 99; cap with AK; and bet the flop without looking at his hand? Then you are in good shape to play on.

But if UTG+1 would limp with most of those hands, not cap with AK, and probably not bet the flop without a king, then you are in a lot of trouble and should fold.

If you don't know which he is, it seems like a toss up to me.

Call vs. raise: raising has the undeniable merit of putting pressure on MP2 and SB to fold their overcards and underpairs before they hurt someone. But calling has some advantages too:

1. If SB wants to checkraise, we're better off letting him and not investing any more money in the mean time.

2. The raise looks like a -EV bet because we don't have a very good chance to win and we are likely to be reraised when we are losing. It also exposes us to a turn checkraise.

3. In order for SB or MP2 to draw out on us, we have to be winning. Well that's not so likely so my fear of free cards is reduced. [But when UTG+1 checks the turn, I'd change my mind.]

I'm not much of a believer in betting for information, but calling is probably more informative here. If you raise you could easily be called down by KQ, KJ, QQ, or some such hand that is intimidated but can't afford to fold.

But if you quietly call the truth is likely to emerge. If one of the other two opponents is slowplaying a monster, you'll soon see and you've minimized your loss. If UTG+1 has any king he will undoubtedly bet the turn. With a lesser hand he could easily chicken out as he actually did. It's just unfortunate that he happened to have QQ, the one hand where this idea fails.

I don't know that I'd actually fold the turn if UTG+1 bets again, but my point is that if you are inclined to play the information game, calling is the way to go. It provides the best information and minimizes your investment if you do decide to fold.

Ed, I'd be delighted if you told me this analysis was good and almost as delighted /images/graemlins/smile.gif if you set me straight.