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View Full Version : Would you call?


03-28-2002, 08:20 PM
Just an odds thought brought on by the pocket T's post. You have AT suited on the button, three callers to you, looks like both blinds will play. You call. 3 bb


Flop is two of your suit, you have a four flush!


Check, bet, raise, folded to you. You call because you have a four flush. Better drops out.

5.5 BB


Blank for turn, raiser bets, you call.

7.5BB


River pairs your ten. One bet to you, what do you do? 8.5 BB in the pot

03-28-2002, 08:48 PM
I think it depends on the cards that are out there. How many cards are over your ten? Is there a 3 or 4 str8?


Not enough info given, but I'd probably call heads-up at the end. Too many low-limit players raise on the flop with a draw and they don't always get there.

03-29-2002, 07:25 AM
More info, if the board is

K, Q, 10, 9, 8 its quite of a fold huh...


But with a board like: 2,5,8,10, Q you can call him


Plz post more info

03-29-2002, 01:55 PM
Okay, no straight, no flush possible. You don't know anything about the player. Board can be any cards you wish with the exception of an Ace anywhere and the Ten on the river.

03-29-2002, 02:01 PM
I might raise if the board is

2s 3d 5s 9h Td.


The problem needs more information, betting and card sequence, etc.

03-29-2002, 02:41 PM
There is a 5% chance I would not raise preflop.


There is a 10% chance that I would not 3 bet on the flop.


If the bettor would only bet a hand stronger than a pair of Tens then I would fold, otherwise I would generally call.

03-29-2002, 03:01 PM
Situation as you vaguely described it and the board is:


K x x x T; or Q x x x T; or J x x x T or any 2 suited cards with one overcard to your T what would you do? Got the point?

03-29-2002, 03:24 PM
This adds a whole new dimention to the "it depends" answer. Not only do you not know information about the opponents, you don't even know the cards!

03-29-2002, 05:35 PM
I see this really as an odds question. Why should the cards matter? The betting player could have a pair of two's with a two on the board, or a pair of two's with no help from the board, or even AA, you don't know anything about the player.

03-29-2002, 09:08 PM

03-30-2002, 02:20 AM
I agree

03-30-2002, 03:54 PM
There are two ways to work this hand: One is assume the opponenets are playing completely random hands. In that case, just work through the possible hands (from 6 AA's, 8 AK's, 12 KK's, ... to 16 23's, 12 22's), calculate the outcome for each hand, work out the probability, multiply and sum. Multiply the probability that you win times the size of the pot. If the result is larger than the one big bet, call; if smaller fold; if much larger consider a raise. (Obviously the number of ways an opponenet could hold a hand is affected by what you see on the board. If you see three 5's you can be sure they don't have two in their hand. Also obvious, a computer may be helpful in this approach.)


The other way is to try to read your opponents hands. For hints about what they have you can look at their betting on this hand (and perhaps earlier ones too) and the cards when they bet. If all you know is that pre flop they stayed in for 1 bet from MP or perhaps EP, and that they put in a raise when they saw a flop, and that they lead the betting on the turn and river; then they are more likely to have two big cards than say 33. So that is why the number of cards larger than your Ten matter. Similarly, you can judge (guess) the probability that your opponents would play cards needed to make a flush draw or a straight draw in that position. (Odds they are on the same flush are low.) In mathematical sense, go back to the previous situation, but wieght each hand that the opponent could have not by the probability of selecting it at random, but by the probability that they would have played that hand that way. E.g., weight for AA should be rather low (cause they didn't raise pre-flop).


Now, what does it mean when all these poker wits keep asking "What are the cards on the board"? They are saying that in their experience there is a lot of information there that you should study before making your fold/call/raise decision. You can use that information to establish base probabilities (first approach) and then using your judgement the probability that you are beat (second approach).

03-30-2002, 11:07 PM
As I said this was inline with the post below. You stayed with the hand mainly for a flush draw, and you had the proper odds. Now you are at the river, the pot is big, but you missed the flush draw. The postflop raiser led the betting through the last streets.


Why did the other players drop out to this postflop raise? Are they all poor players or do they have information you don't? Would they have thrown away hands of TT or better facing a raise on the flop? Do you have odds to call?