Bet an unimproved AK?

PP LL. Getting my practice in before my live bankroll arrives around May 1st. Been killing the games for 4BB/hr since the New Year. Really hope good play and my luck carry over to the cardroom.


I raise 2 limpers with AcKc in cutoff. Button calls 2 cold, SB calls, limpers call. 5 to flop of...


8c 7c 3s


SB and limper check, I bet. Button calls behind and everyone else calls too.


Turn board is 7c 8c 3s Qs


Checked to me again. I bet and now button raises. SB calls but limpers fold. Back to me and I 3-bet. Button calls, SB calls.


Final Board is 7c 8c 3s Qs 7h


SB checks. Bet or check? Why?


KJS

I would have to put SB on Ace-big of spades or black T9, nothing else makes sense. BB.. dunno. Most people don't raise on the turn without the intention of seeing the showdown. There's a small chance he'll decide his Q is no good on the river and drop, but that's doubtful - he may have raised as a free showdown play with AsQs or something. I think if you're going to 3 bet the turn you have to bet the river in the dark anyways unless the spades get there, though if I was going to guess it went check bet fold fold.

Check atleast one of them will keep you honest and since the button raised you on the turn he will mostly likely be there when there is a showdown whether you like it or not. He is pretty much pot stuck. I would also check and fold to his bet on the river unless he is a very tricky player.


-MJ

If I'm the button and I have a Q (which is what I would have put him on) then I am going to call another bet.


It is also possible he has two pair or a set and stopped betting because he was afraid of the 2 clubs and 2 spades. With all the hands I can put him on, none do I see him not calling just one more bet.


So I check-fold and probably wouldn't have 3 bet the turn either. I'm especially curious as to what the SB had. Busted straight?

Seems pretty reckless to me, especially at a LL table. Rags flop and you come out swinging, and a Q turns giving you nothing but overcards ... you bet and then reraise ... were you trying to get the raiser to release?


I would have put you on JJ or above if I was your opponent, and when the blank hit the river I'd have to call assuming I had at least a middle-size Queen.


Man, playing unimproved overcards in a LL game, even AK ... you're gonna lose money. I try to find a reason to drop 'em at the flop or turn if I can unless it's a short game with tight players.


Back to your question: what to do at the river? I say checkraise, and muck if you get reraised. Either that or simply check and fold. I wouldn't be having to make such a decision myself, though ... I wouldn't be in that situation!

I think only your only choice is to bet. 11 BB in the pot, and I think at this LL you have a 1/11 chance you have to chasers with you. Lately I've seen many raises on a draw, because the raisor knows it won't knock the draws out and has the correct odds to raise, and builds a nice pot when they hit.


I don't think you're worried the button will raise, as I'm guessing he's on a draw, str8t, or flush.


Now the BB I put on a hopeless str8t draw, with bottom pair, or the same draw with the 7. If he's got the 7, then you'll get a raise. Now, there are a couple of tricky players on the LL and it may be a bluff from the SB. So you need to know the player. But I think you can safely drop to a raise at this point.


My guess. Checked round and bottom pair from SB takes pot!

I like your play right up until the 3-bet on the turn. Not too much description was given of either the SB or the button but I would guess if you bet the river, you are called at least in one spot, if not both (unless on the off chance they were both drawing). And you are probably going to find at least one of the player with 2-pair or better.

check/fold but maybe call if the sb folds


if you bet, it could be raised behind you. unless ya think ya can foldem, then bet, and if raised fold. youd be representing Qs full i think. but he could have a fh also. the only thing you can beat is a bluff, but if the guy may lay it down.....might be worth a shot.


depends on your read of the button player, the sb is probably folding to a bet here. id say he missed his draw...


cuurious for the results though...


b

The flop hit him pretty hard. He had a nut flush draw, which is exactly what you want in this type of game.


The play up to the turn makes sense. He's just building a pot for himself. Betting on the turn makes sense if he thought everyone would call.


I don't understand the 3 bet either. With 1 or 2 opponents, he might be able to set up a bluff on the river, but not with 4.

i like his turn play, in LL if the guy has a Q he very well may not have a K. if he had AQ he shouldve reraised preflop. thus giving him 15 outs. its borderline 2-1 betting, and since he has 2 opponents, go for it. if ya miss your flush, but an A or K comes you could very well have the best. the sb may be just on a str8 draw.


im guessing that dynasty would agree on this /images/smile.gif

we did a nice thread about this situation. and ill give KJS credit for recognizing it, and blasting away.


b

"its borderline 2-1 betting, and since he has 2 opponents, go for it."


Actually, it's 4:1 to make the flush because there's only one card left to come.


I know what you mean, though. I've been seeing applications of that thread in nearly every post I read. Have to rub my eyes sometimes and double check.


Matt

I three bet because I thought the button did not have better than a pair of Queens. If I am right then I have 15 outs (9 clubs, 6 Aces and 6 Kings) to win a nice size pot and 2 opponent remaining. Its a value raise: I am going to win often enough for it to show a profit.


Alternately, I thought maybe I could put pressure on people to not bet the river and also maybe get a call from someone if a club hit, not thinking I was raising with a flush draw. Lastly, my play here was very consistent with AA or KK, which meant I could *maybe just maybe* get someone to lay down a Q to my 3 bet. The last possibility is very very remote but should be mentioned.


The result was that I checked the river and the button did too. The SB showed A4s (shows you how much you can lose chasing runner runner flush), I show my AK and the button takes it down with TT.


The button hands made me wonder if I could have gotten him to lay down with a river bet. I thought he had AQ or KQ for sure. He probably would have called. All in all I am happy with my read and the fact that I got to see the showdown for free while maximized my chance to win a good sized pot with a huge draw and 2 opponents.


KJS

Up to the turn you are getting the right odds to call, betting and possibly facing a raise just changes the stakes, say if it was $1-2, it's now $2-4. You are still getting proper odds to call. Three betting the turn with just the two of you was not in your favor, your hand isn't made yet. SB stayed to the river calling two cold preflop, I would check. You have one pair, sb could have trips or any of four pairs.

I think your explanation on the 3 bet makes a lot of sense. You make more money if you catch, and have a good chance of not losing any more if you don't (as happened). Nice play.


If this is your reason for 3 betting, that pretty much answers the question of what you should do on the river. If you bet, you've taken away the not losing any more part. If you were raising to set up a bluff, then I don't like the 3 bet. No one's going to lay down a pair, so you're only realistic chance of winning on a bluff is if they're both on a draw, which isn't too likely.


I like the way you played it.

I had to re-read your first post ... I missed the fact that you had a nut flush draw. I'd likely have played the same given that the board wasn't paired ... which in your case it was not.


"My bad!"

Well as I see it if you believe you've got a 1 in 17 chance of bluffing this one out it's worth going for. neither the flush nor the straight came so if either player is on a draw they'll drop, however they're unlikely to be able to beat you anyway so that's now a concern(unless they've got a 3 of clubs or something). In my experience few LL players will throw in a raise on the turn then fold on the river, unless the turn made some monster draw for them that didn't come through. Really I think the button hit his KQ/QJ/Qxc hand and he's calling it all. if the sb raises he hit the 7 and it's mucked.

I think this is a good example of what Roy Cooke talks about in Card Player occasionally when he suggest that you must think about how you hand play's from street to street.


If I had three bet the turn, I would have (hopefully) done so with a game plan in mind. Your comment about representing Aces or Kings is a fairly signifcant amount of the value in playing it this way. Extrapolating, the value of representing these hands is that you might get a 'troublesome' hand like 10-10 to fold.


If you check and call or check fold here, I think you have to do so with the intention of check folding the river without improvement.


I personally do not like the three bet on the turn with the check on the river. I think you rob yourself of some of the value of the three bet.

john b.,


I would respond that the turn bets netted me 97.8 cents per dollar so they were very very slighly negative EV. I figured it was worth it for the pot building aspect but then I did not improve.


I am still on the fence whether or not its worth a big bet to try to win a pretty large pot with A high. The likelihood that neither opponent had anything but busted draws (too) did not seem very high to me. At the time I thought there would be a showdown. Could the button be 95% sure I had AA/KK/QQ/AQ? I would have called with TT for sure.


Probably the most interesting hand I have played in a while.


KJS

I think betting the river is a big part of why you 3-bet. You make calling on the end incredibly difficult for the button. He not only has to reeeeeealy think his hand can't beat yours, he has to worry about an overcall from the SB. I think a typical player will muck his TT in this spot way more than 5% of the time. Just guessing, but I'd estimate TT gets mucked here maybe as much as 40% of the time by normal players. What can he beat? And he's still got someone to act behind him.

he has more outs than just the flush draw...


he has the A and K also for an additional 6 outs making it 15 outs. figure it around 2-1. more than just a flush here...


b