Fold the turn? Raise the river?

[illunious]

Was this is a good spot to muck my open ender? The more I think about it, I think the turn call was bad. I like the river call though (hoping for a call by UTG).

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.stompandcrush.com/cgi-bin/hhparser.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Button folds.

River: (5.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 7.50 BB, between SB and Hero.</font>

[symphonic]

Definitely raise the river. If UTG is a typical party player, he's just as likely to call 2 bets as he is 1.

[MortalNuts]

The turn call would be fine if you were pretty sure that at least two of the players behind you would call, and that no one behind you would raise.

I'm seldom certain of either of those things, so yeah I'd usually muck it on the turn. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bisonbison]

Muck on the turn. Pot very small. 3 clean outs.

If you make it to the river, raise.

[illunious]

Thanks for the comments everyone. Normally I have good pot odds on my OESDs in .5/1, folding it didn't even enter into my mind at the time.

Bison, I had a double gutbuster - 7 or a 3 would make my straight. 6 clean outs right? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I'm surprised you guys think the river was a raise. If it was an offsuit card, I'd raise. Don't you think calling and hoping for an overcall by UTG with an lone 8 or something is better than raising? Calling and earning 1 BB from UTG must be better than raising and possibly facing a re-raise by UTG or SB.

1. UTG or BB has the flush or a full house
- I raise, it's 3 bet, -3BB
- I call, it's raised, I call -2BB

2. UTG has an 8 and SB has a 6 or 8
- I raise, UTG folds, SB folds, 0 BB
- I raise, UTG folds, SB calls +1 BB
- I call, UTG calls, +1 BB
- I raise, UTG calls 2, SB calls +3 BB

3. UTG has nothing
- I call, UTG folds 0 BB


Results:

BB has K6 and I win.

[bisonbison]

Ah, missed the other 3 outs.

[MrDannimal]

I'm not sure I buy this math.

If you raise, you can probably fold to a 3-bet. So it's only -1BB to raise (you were paying 1 BB to call anyway). Likewise, if you call and it's raised depending on reads you might be able to lay it down. So it's sometimes -1BB (you were calling anyway). It's also possible that when it is raised that you win anyway.

I think the chances of a boat are tiny in this case. A flush, maybe, but that comes into the raise fold to a 3-bet.

If you assign equal weight to all your listed options, raising is break-even. Since I think it's far more likely that the end result is in Group 2, which is all 0 or +BB, that says raise.