Okay math wizards, help with an answer on this one?

[zuluking]

4-8 live game with lots of "gamblers". Gambler to my left posts a live straddle. I'm in the BB with J /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif. It's 2-bet around to me, I cap it at 20. 6 see the flop.

K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif.

SB checks, I check, by the time the action gets back to me, I cap it at 16. 4 see the turn.

A /images/graemlins/club.gif.

SB checks, I check, there is a bet by UTG, a raise by MP, and a re-raise by the SB. I glance over at UTG, he's got 16 chips in his hand, he's gonna re-raise too. I look at MP and SB, they've gathered more chips in their hands, all 3 have a Queen.

I fold with 6 outs. The action was capped on the river too as a deuce hit the board. Did I make the right laydown, or was I chicken $hit?

[Nottom]

If you are in the BB with KJo and there are raises ahead of you, you should be folding not capping.

I'm not gonna be super confiden't in my top two when its already been 3-bet by the time, it gets back to, me but I don't think the cap is a bad play either.

On the turn you are basically calling 4BBs here ... the pot will be 32BBs at the end of this round and you have 4 outs (not 6). You are about 11-1 to catch one and are only getting 8-1, so you have to fold here.

[bigpooch]

Even if there is no rake, there's only 6x2.5+4x2+4x4=39 BBs
in the pot after you call and it costs 4 BBs to see the
river. In addition, not all of your 4 outs may be good,
although you can split on 3 tickets. Even if everyone here
has a queen, it could be the case that some of your outs are
held by your opponents (e.g., KQ and QJ are reasonable
holdings). On the upside you do have some implied odds and
that's the question you can also ask yourself: are these
players crazy enough to cap it when a king lands (of course,
you could be drawing dead to AA and almost dead to AK) if
they merely have a straight or TT or KT? Also, the Q of
clubs may also be another card that gives you a four-way
split.

This answer depends somewhat on your opposition, but I don't
think you are wrong on tossing the hand. IMHO, I think
given the information that you supplied, calling 4 BBs on
the turn will be slightly -EV, but if someone doesn't think
so, I can see his point of view as well (of course, the
opponents would have to be quite maniacal!). From a very
simplistic point of view, you have effectively about 4+3/4
(including the ties) outs in 46 so 4/39 seems sufficient;
unfortunately, it is very likely someone holds a queen and
it also very likely at least one of a king or jack is held
by another player. Also, there is a very slight possibility
that there are ZERO outs for the whole pot: someone could
hold AA or KK!

Even if you were to change the hand to AK, I would believe
this is a laydown on the turn. The sick question that comes
to mind is this: Is TT too good to muck on the turn? If you
are against reasonable players, there is a better case to
surrender, but here, given the circumstances, you would have
to grit your teeth and see the river with your dreaded set!

[zuluking]

Nottom-

Of course I would never cap with KJo in a 'normal...er...'regular'...er...you know what I mean... hold em game. These guys were gamblers, 7-8 every flop, every flop being raised/re-raised, and 1/2 the time being capped. And of course, being that they were gamblers, they were raising with ANYTHING. The final showdown had Q2o, Q8o, and the MONSTER of Q10s. But thanks for the info. Its about time to play these same guys again tonight. LUCK!

[Saborion]

He's only getting 8-1 on a 11-1 shot. Well, given the action previous in the hand, is it really impossible to collect another 3 BB on the river?

[Nottom]

Big unsuited cards are not what I look for when I'm in a game full of maniacs.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
He's only getting 8-1 on a 11-1 shot. Well, given the action previous in the hand, is it really impossible to collect another 3 BB on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't need to collect 3 bets, he needs to collect 12 BB (his call is for 4BB remember).

Basically if he knew for sure that all of his outs were good and he could most definately cap the river 4 ways if he hits, then the call would be a high varience yet slightly +EV play. Since those are some pretty hefty assumptions, this is an easy fold.

[Gabe]

"On the turn you are basically calling 4BBs here ... the pot will be 32BBs at the end of this round and you have 4 outs (not 6). You are about 11-1 to catch one and are only getting 8-1, so you have to fold here"

It about 10.5-1 (42 unknown cards 4 out)


He's only getting 7.5 from the pot. I seems to me that there will be 34 bets in the pot at the end of the turn but 4 of them his.

If he would get 3 bets on the river, it would be a push, if we do not assume that some of the K's and J's are likely in his opponents hand.

I think the fold is good.