betting/raising for value!

[LSUfan1]

Can someone please explain in 3rd grade terms why I bet a 4 flush or open ender for value? Not sure that I understand this concept the way I should yet!

The other day I had a 5 handed game where I get the Ax suited, I bet, one raise, all call. 5 to see the turn. Blank hits I check, one bet, again all call. I hit the river take down a nice pot. It worked, but I don't understand the reasoning!

Thanks for any posts!

[mmanne]

I'll try and explain with examples. If you are headsup against an opponent and have AsKc and you know that your opponent has QhJd pre-flop, do you bet and why (let's leave out future bets or strategy)?

Of course you bet, becuase you are a 65% favorite to win the hand. So, for every bet you and your opponent put in, you can expect to win 65% of that money. If you and your opponent each bet $1, you are expected to win $1.30. You are gaining $.30.

You are betting because you are expecting that when you put the money in, and your opponent calls, you will be winning expected money.

To your example, on the flop, you have a flush draw and have 4 opponents. Let's assume that if you hit the flush, you win, if you don't, you lose (just to make the numbers easier). You have ~35% chance to hit the flush on one of the next two cards. In your example, you bet 2 small bets and 2 big bets, and each of the four other players called. The pot after the flop is 5 (players)*3 (big bets) = 15 BB, you've put in 3 BB. Since you have a 35% of winning, you are expected to win 5.25 BB, and only paid 3 BB.

This is a very simplistic approach, ignoring future consequences of betting, what the pot was before the flop, and among other things, your true chances of winning. But for the purpose of explaining the math, it works well.

Does this explain things?
matt

[PseudoPserious]

With a 4-flush or an OESD on the flop, you are roughly a 2:1 underdog to make your hand by the river.

Thus, on the flop, for every $1 that goes into the pot, your share of it is about $.33.

If there are three or more folks contributing to the flop action, you're gaining theoretical money. Say it's you and 4 others on the flop -- you put in 1 bet, each of them put in 1 bet. Your theoretical profit on the flop betting is (1/3 * 5 bets) - (1 bet) = 2/3 bets. This is why it's called betting for value.

If there are two other players with you on the flop, you 'break even' in mathematical terms on the flop action.

If there is only one other person with you on the flop, you're no longer making money on that action -- you put in 1 bet, and your share is 0.66 bets (1/3 of 2 bets).

This isn't to say that when you're heads-up on the flop you should fold (you're likely getting pot odds to call) or shouldn't bet (deception; semi-bluff), but it's no longer be a 'bet for value'.

I *think* this is correct, but I'm just a beginner too.

Good luck,
PP

[LSUfan1]

Yes, I definitely understand this a bit better than before. I am currently reading TOP, and it's helping too although I have to read some parts over and over to get what I am supposed to!