View Full Version : Was hansen's call wrong?
DanTheCardMan
03-18-2004, 11:10 PM
I'm a relative newbie, but I think I have a handle on Gus' decision. Feel free to tell me I'm full of it.
You can't think in terms of pot odds at that point in the tourney. You have to look at it in terms of possible winnings. I'm gonna try to do the math here, but forgive me if I get it messed up.
With Gus holding 10's, there are 24 possible hands he's a huge dog to (6 each of A, K, Q, J). There are 96 hands that he's a slight favorite to (16 each of AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, and QJ) and very few hands that Phillips would play in that situation that TT would dominate.
By making this call, essentially Hansen is betting at least 1.5:1 and probably 3.5:1 in prize money on what's a 1:1 shot at making his hand. That means that in 100 similar situations, Gus would average about 50 wins and 50 losses.
Prize money for 3rd place was $250,000, while prize for 2nd place was $500,000 and 1st place was $1,100,000. Fifty times, Gus goes away with 250,000, and 50 times, Gus comes away with the chance to make $1,100,000. Let's say that of those 50 times, he wins 5/6 of them(with a 5-1 chip lead), or 43. That means 7 times he ends up with the 2nd place $$.
50(250,000) + 7(500,000) + 43(1,100,000) = 12,500,000 + 3,500,000 + 47,300,000 = 63,300,000. So by making that call, Gus would average 633,000 in winnings.
However, if Gus folds, and hangs around until the short stack is taken out (not sure how to figure a percentage for this possibility), his chance at winning goes up. Say the short stack goes out every time. That means that Gus and Phillips would be about even in heads-up. So 50 times Gus would win 1,1000,000 and 50 times he'd win 500,000.
50(1,100,000) + 50(500,000) = 55,000,000 + 25,000,000 = 80,000,000 for an average win of 800,000.
So by making that call in that spot, Hansen effectively cost himself 800,000 - 633,000 = 167,000 in prize money.
Bad call.
Nick B.
03-19-2004, 01:11 AM
It wasn't actually a coin flip, Gus was like a 57-43 favorite. And Gus could discount AA and KK as Paul would likely have played them differently.
Dynasty
03-19-2004, 04:22 AM
I think your analysis is also tainted because you aren't allowing for Phillips to push all-in with 99-66 which he often will, especially 99 and 88. He could also make this play with ATs. Remember, he made a big reraise with J9s against Gus.
Rushmore
03-19-2004, 09:16 AM
The more I read about it here, and the more I ponder it, the less confident it appears Gus was against Phillips.
I think ultimately, that if Gus were truly confident he could outplay Phillips, he would have mucked and then just tried to pick him apart instead.
Maybe Phillips had his number on this day, and Gus' frustration with being outplayed led him to simply say, "Screw it--I'm a favorite on this hand, and that's good enough for me right now," which is indeed a thought process which can occur in a frustrated player in a tournament.
[ QUOTE ]
I think your analysis is also tainted because you aren't allowing for Phillips to push all-in with 99-66 which he often will, especially 99 and 88. He could also make this play with ATs. Remember, he made a big reraise with J9s against Gus.
[/ QUOTE ]
This is an excellent point. Think of it this way, if you play with the cards up and you know what Paul has, then I would probably fold in this spot. However, if you feel that Paul at best has only one overcard or an underpair or less, then you have to call. I agree that Gus probably was certain that Paul didn't have an overpair, except maybe JJ and QQ. So, only two hands that were an absolute favorite that Paul could hold were possible. This means he's either a coin flip or a favorite against any of Paul's other holdings. I think it was a great call myself and he just got "unlucky" as they say.
MHoydilla
03-19-2004, 07:05 PM
I watched the broad cast but dont remember the suits of gus's Ts and Phillips AQs. Also I ran the hand through 2dimes and got TT= 54.3 AQs= 45.7 if the T is the same suit as AQS, and TT=54.0 AQs =46.0 if the T is not the suit of AQs. But if you run the hand with a ten dead because if I remember correctly Dewy Tomko folded a TJs then the hand goes to TT=.501 AQs=.499. It is impossible for either player to know that dewy had a T but according to WPT cam. he did. So racing for the chips they were a virtual coin flip.
tdomeski
03-19-2004, 11:00 PM
Okay, Gus knows three things:
1) Paul doesn't have AA
2) Paul doesn't have KK
3) Paul could/would make the same play with 8-8 or 9-9
With this said I think Gus knows he's probably in a race situation or a huge favorite.
Turns out he was up against AQo and was a 57% favorite, If he wins that hand he wins the tournament IMO, so I believe it was a correct call.
IMHO Gus made the right call.
curtains
03-21-2004, 10:35 PM
I like the call too, i posted this in the wrong thread a bit ago. You ahve to be a real genius to push allin with AA or KK there (honestly I dont imagine such a large raise with QQ, as its simply a monster in a 3 handed game). The hand I'd be most scared of is JJ.
It's not often you get a hand as big as TT in a 3 handed game.
thetman
03-22-2004, 07:40 AM
What does everyone think of Gus? Did he just get very lucky last season? Is he that good? I'm curious.
This is a clear call for Gus. Gus has a table image of a maniac who will raise with anything to steal the blinds. He knows the other players all know it. Phillips could have made that all-in raise with just about anything as a re-steal. Because of this Gus has to be pretty confident his 10's are good.
CrisBrown
03-22-2004, 10:59 AM
Hi thetman,
[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of Gus? Did he just get very lucky last season? Is he that good? I'm curious.
[/ QUOTE ]
He's that good. As Howard Lederer said in an interview last season, "Gus can play a King-nine offsuit because he makes such great decisions throughout the hand, and that makes him very dangerous." When Howard Lederer says Gus makes great decisions, I'm inclined to take his word for it. And from what I've seen of Gus' play -- both on the WPT and online -- he is one of the very best post-flop NL players I've ever watched.
Yes, he's definitely that good.
Cris
tewall
03-22-2004, 04:45 PM
I agree with the comments in general that the call was correct. However I disagree with the discounting of Paul holding AA or KK. Paul knows there's a decent chance he'll get called, because he knows that Gus knows that he could be raising with anything.
Ah, you've now taken it to the 4th level. Hansen makes certain plays. Phillips knows he makes these plays so he factors this into his play. Hansen knows Phillips knows so he in turn factors this in and lastly Phillips knows that Hansen knows that Phillips knows. Excellent!!
Army Eye
03-22-2004, 05:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What does everyone think of Gus? Did he just get very lucky last season? Is he that good? I'm curious.
[/ QUOTE ]
He is scary good.
He's one of the best 5 or 10 players in the world. I'd consider saying that he is -the- best, just because of the consistency he shows that others in his class do not.
~D
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the comments in general that the call was correct. However I disagree with the discounting of Paul holding AA or KK. Paul knows there's a decent chance he'll get called, because he knows that Gus knows that he could be raising with anything.
[/ QUOTE ]
Paul Philips isn't that good.
William
03-22-2004, 08:38 PM
Yes, he's definitely that good.
When I see my friend Gus in a few weeks during the eastern holydays, I'll be glad to tell him that you consider him one of the best /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Maybe I'll ask him what he thought in this specific spot /images/graemlins/grin.gif
CrisBrown
03-22-2004, 11:42 PM
Hiya William,
My all-time favorite Gus Hansen comment happened in the table chat at Phil Hellmuth's UB table about a year ago. Gus' second WPT win had just been televised, and one of the players asked Phil what he thought of Gus. Phil complimented Gus' play, and one of the railbirds said: "Gus sucks. I beat him at a .25/.50 NL table today. All you have to do is get good cards."
Phil's response: "Duh."
Cris
William
03-22-2004, 11:46 PM
I haven't had the privilege of meeting Hellmuth, but I have known Gustav(as he is named) for 15 years.
We were backgammon pros before turning to poker and have travelled to many places toghether.
The one thing I can certify, is that besides being "good", he is the luckiest person on earth /images/graemlins/smile.gif
curtains
03-23-2004, 06:59 AM
He might have AA or KK but id say its far less likely than his other possible holding, and to consider as equally likely in your calculations would be a lazy decision.
I honestly think that folding TT is really really bad in that spot...and not even a close call. I think if you want to fold, you should think about adjusting how you play near the end of tournaments, but what do I know.
[ QUOTE ]
He might have AA or KK but id say its far less likely than his other possible holding, and to consider as equally likely in your calculations would be a lazy decision.
I honestly think that folding TT is really really bad in that spot...and not even a close call. I think if you want to fold, you should think about adjusting how you play near the end of tournaments, but what do I know.
[/ QUOTE ]
I generally have to agree with this and as I said above, I think it was a great call. However, the one thing to keep in mind is the fact that if Gus loses this hand, he is out. I believe the prize money for this tourney doubled from second to third, so that is a serious consideration at this point.
Nottom
03-23-2004, 07:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I believe the prize money for this tourney doubled from second to third, so that is a serious consideration at this point.
[/ QUOTE ]
This is much more of a concern for you or me than it would be for Gus I would imagine.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe the prize money for this tourney doubled from second to third, so that is a serious consideration at this point.
[/ QUOTE ]
This is much more of a concern for you or me than it would be for Gus I would imagine.
[/ QUOTE ]
That is a good point.
JustPlayingSmart
03-24-2004, 03:39 AM
[ QUOTE ]
This is much more of a concern for you or me than it would be for Gus I would imagine.
[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that it is more of a concern, but I don't think it is "much" more. During the broadcast, Gus was talking about Paul and he said that since Paul cared less about the money than he did, Paul might make some different plays. This shows me that the money at least meant something to him, and makes me believe that the $250K difference between 2nd and 3rd would have had at least some weight in his decision on whether or not to call.
William
03-24-2004, 04:17 AM
This is much more of a concern for you or me than it would be for Gus I would imagine.
No way, money is his number 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,....concern.
[ QUOTE ]
This is much more of a concern for you or me than it would be for Gus I would imagine.
No way, money is his number 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,....concern.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be interested to know what Gus has to say about this hand when you get a chance to talk to him. I'm sure money is a concern, but I guess what I'm wondering is this: Was he at this point more concerned about competing for second or third? B/C if his concern was for second, then I would say a fold might be called for, particularly given his outstanding abilities at play on the flop and beyond. However, if he is solely thinking about first, then I could see how a call was in order.
DanTheCardMan
03-25-2004, 09:50 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, he's definitely that good.
When I see my friend Gus in a few weeks during the eastern holydays, I'll be glad to tell him that you consider him one of the best /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Maybe I'll ask him what he thought in this specific spot /images/graemlins/grin.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. I believe you when you say you know the guy and I'd certainly be interested in hearing what he has to say about it. Thanks.
vBulletin® v3.8.11, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.