Set (UB 2-4)

[Ulysses]

UB 2-4. Pretty weak-tight table in general (I've watched for two rounds). This is my third hand at the table and I haven't done anything. None of these players have played w/ me before. MP3 is pretty weak-tight. UTG+1 calls way too much.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (10 handed)

UTG+1 ($556)
MP3 ($1139.50)
akshawnd ($398)

Preflop: akshawnd is Button with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $4, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $18, CO folds, akshawnd calls $18, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $14.

Flop: ($60) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets $60

What now?

[beerbandit]

I would have folded instead of calling the 18 cold in a possible heads up hand. But...you did flop your hand....probaly in the lead also. It seems that the weak tight player betting just under the size of the pot may over pair--hopefully not queens--or maybe the ace. I may just call the flop here possible getting the UTG player in. I don't think a raise here is that crazy either, but I do like the call better. You have position to fold if the next card is something you don't like---maybe a spade. Unless turn and river come spades that don't pair the board I say that you are going to a showdown.

[bunky9590]

Okay, I'm liking the trap here and represent the flush draw.

Smooth call the flop and he acts before you on the turn. If a non spade card hits, he should bet, and then you can push.

If he has QQ, god bless him, but there is no way he's putting you on 22 or 44 calling that raise. (BTW, i would have called the raise PF as well in effort to bust him like you have the opportunity to do now.) If he has AA or KK, he going to the felt here most likely.

The other way to go is to min raise the flop. It then looks like a feeler raise with a big Queen to see where you are at or possibly a free card raise. If he re-raises big, then push in on the flop. Once again, if he has QQ, good for him.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Ulysses,

Uggh. If MP3 is semi-bluffing a spade draw, you'll have to risk a big chunk of your stack to deny him drawing odds. If I've added correctly, there's $114 in the pot with his bet, so you'd need to bet $180 or so. But because he's a weak-tight player, he's acting out-of-character here, with a pre-flop raise and a pot-sized bet at the turn. When I see someone do something which is out-of-character, I start to worry about a monster hand.

If he's on AA or KK, you're good. It's QQ that would have me worried. I think I'd go ahead and make it $180 -- if you're going to play 22, you pretty much have to bet a set, or there's no reason to play the hand at all -- but I'm not sure I'm willing to call an all-in with bottom set, given his out-of-character behavior.

Cris

[Zeno]

'What now'

Play real live no-limit. No wait, that's boring.

Seriously, you are a 'new' player so take advantage of this unkown if possible.

MP3 has a big stack and UTG+1 has you covered also. You have a chance to be greedy and call away all your money like Ray Zee does. So just Call. See what UTG+1 does and go from there.

Plan to get your stack in on the flop or turn depending on the action/cards/your online read.

If you play it right you could have ~$1200 in your stack when the dust clears. Or be broke. How Boring it all is.

-Zeno

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have folded instead of calling the 18 cold in a possible heads up hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ducks/AK is about 50/50. No way should Ulysses fold. I would reraise before I would consider a fold.

A pair of ducks is a stack taking hand.

-Zeno

[Nero]

Call, the only likely flush draw from MP3 is AK of spades. 3-way in a raised pot I wouldn't be too worried about the flush draw. I dont want a spade hit the turn not because it helps my opponents hand, but because it will likely kill or slow down opponents action. Calling allows him to keep betting on the turn and makes it easier to get your stack in the middle.

[AJo Go All In]

ulysses, one thing is for sure. you have to GET EVERYONE OUT OF THE POT or else you will get bad beated!


[ QUOTE ]
But because he's a weak-tight player, he's acting out-of-character here, with a pre-flop raise and a pot-sized bet at the turn. When I see someone do something which is out-of-character, I start to worry about a monster hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? i'm not sure it's out of character for any player to raise preflop and then bet the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
but I'm not sure I'm willing to call an all-in with bottom set,

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

who's weak-tight again?


maybe i'm wrong, but when i flop a set, if someone has a bigger set i just lose.

in a weak-tight game, i might consider flat-calling here (even though it's a classic no-no) especially on UB because of that bet pot button. i DO NOT want everyone folding on the flop here, and there is a very good chance he will click that bet pot again on the turn and you will get paid. my default play is to raise a little less than the pot here.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
but I'm not sure I'm willing to call an all-in with bottom set,

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, then live NL isn't the game for you. He's behind exactly two hands. I would say that he has 44 less than 1% of the time. He has QQ maybe 5% of the time, tops. That means that Ulysses has the best hand here better than 90% of the time...and you're not ready to call all in?

Given the Q on the flop, there are three ways to have QQ. What are his other possible holdings?
16 ways to have AK,
16 ways to have AJ (not likely),
12 ways to have AQ,
6 ways to have AA,
6 ways to have KK,
48 ways to have either JJ,TT,99,88,77,66,55,33.
Let's be conservative and discount pairs 7 and smaller and AJ.
Thats still 64 possible just as likely candidates as QQ.
64/67 = 95.5% you have him beat.
3/67 = 4.5% he has QQ.

I'll take that shot any time.

As far as how he should play it? I would smooth call and attempt to trap the third player. Depending on how much the player bets into me on the turn (assuming a non pair/non spade) I would go all in to a pot sized bet or more, and pot it if checked to, or if he makes a small bet on the turn.

[Ulysses]

I f'ed this one up. $120 in the pot now. Min-raise is $120 straight. Pot-raise is $240 straight.

I made it $150. I was hoping to get re-raised all-in and happily call. Both folded.

I agree w/ most that calling is the way to go here.

[kerpowski]

Since you mentioned he's weak-tight there are only a few hands I can put him on: AA-JJ, AK or AQ. He's drawing near dead over 90% of the time and only has you buried less than 6% of the time. The vast majority of the time you're going to be ahead the only question is how to get the most money in the pot.

It seems like I'm one of the the only people not in favor of smooth calling. The only hand I can see UTG+1 staying in with after a pot sized bet and a caller (that he might not stay in for a raise) is a flush draw and smooth calling gives him the odds to call with the draw. If you do smooth call and MP3 has an overpair, any spade or Q is going to kill your action on the turn (same goes for any K if he has AQ). This means that 25% of the time you lose any additional bets on the turn. I'd rather build the pot now.

MP3 would also call a reasonable raise with any of the hands you want to get him to the felt with. He probably would not go much further on the turn after a flop call with hands he'd fold to a flop raise (JJ, TT, AKo).

I'd make a 1/2 pot raise up to $150 and try to get MP3 stuck with an overpair or TPTK. If UTG+1 comes along for the ride that's great but I wouldn't count on it.

If MP3 has the set of queens I try to river the case 2.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Uggh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I had the exact opposite response.

[ QUOTE ]
but I'm not sure I'm willing to call an all-in with bottom set, given his out-of-character behavior.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. I'd love to call an all-in here.

[Ulysses]

OK, your thoughts here are very similar to mine during the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Since you mentioned he's weak-tight there are only a few hands I can put him on: AA-JJ, AK or AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup.


[ QUOTE ]
The only hand I can see UTG+1 staying in with after a pot sized bet and a caller (that he might not stay in for a raise) is a flush draw and smooth calling gives him the odds to call with the draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and I think he may well call a reasonable raise w/ that hand - remember, he calls too much.

[ QUOTE ]
If you do smooth call and MP3 has an overpair, any spade or Q is going to kill your action on the turn (same goes for any K if he has AQ).

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. And I don't think I'm going to lose AA/KK (or probably not even AQ) w/ a raise here. But I could definitely lose action based on the turn. As for JJ, do I get much more from him anyway? AK shuts down unless improved. And even AQ from a weak-tight might turn off.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd make a 1/2 pot raise up to $150 and try to get MP3 stuck with an overpair or TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was exactly the plan. I feel a little better now.

[ QUOTE ]
If MP3 has the set of queens I try to river the case 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my backup plan.

[Ulysses]

If I raise and get re-raised, the range of hands gets cut down a lot. This player pretty much has AA/KK/QQ then. So, it's more like 12:3 rather than 64:3. Still, an easy automatic call w/ these stacks.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd make a 1/2 pot raise up to $150 and try to get MP3 stuck with an overpair or TPTK. If UTG+1 comes along for the ride that's great but I wouldn't count on it.



[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. I think there's a case either way. If he calls too much, who know, maybe he'll call w/ his QJ,QK,JJ-88!!, who knows...so that makes raising pretty attractive. But, I think it's close. Certainly, "Ughh" wouldn't be my initial reaction unless they all mucked out of turn.

[Matt Flynn]

Ulysses,

how are you best going to get the money in? in this case you may be against an overpair or a flush draw. both will follow you for a raise on the flop. i'd raise $100. make a pot while you can.

watch results disease. in this case probably neither of them had anything, so you would prefer to call and try to get a bluff, but if they had something, you'd want to raise. online crystal ball time.

many pros flat call the flop often with a set when there's no draw or one draw. lets you see whether the draw gets there before you get a lot of money in, and they hoover up a lot of turn bluffs.

in my local game there's a ton of raise calling on the flop, so i like to stick chips in.

i'm at the Nugget / WSOP may 12-16 if you make it. talk to tommy we're meeting there.

matt

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

you'll have to risk a big chunk of your stack to deny him drawing odds. If I've added correctly, there's $114 in the pot with his bet, so you'd need to bet $180 or so.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this.

First of all. why do we need to make it $180 to deny drawing odds on an 8-outer? That's worse than 4-1 to hit.

Second, does it really matter if we don't deny a flush draw his drawing odds? If you make it too expensive for him to draw, he might correctly fold. Any time you charge a draw to hit, if he calls, you make money even if he is correct to call. If he's correct to call, you'd prefer him to fold, of course, but you still make money by betting rather than not betting.

For example:

one card to come, you're a 2-1 favourite, $100 in the pot, $50 left to bet and it's up to you. Let's also assume the cards are exposed so there are no implied odds.

You can check, in which case he will check, and he has $33 and a bit equity in the pot; you have just under $67 equity and $50 in your stack for a total of $117.

Or, you can bet $50, which he will correctly call. The pot now stands at $200, and you have $133 equity, but a zero stack. Look! You just made $16, despite the fact that he correctly called your bet and you didn't deny him odds.

Of course the best situations are when he folds when he does have the odds to draw, or calls when he doesn't. But it's important to understand that it's not a disaster if you make a bet which he is correct to call, and he calls. You're still increasing your EV.

Guy.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Guy,

[ QUOTE ]
Second, does it really matter if we don't deny a flush draw his drawing odds? If you make it too expensive for him to draw, he might correctly fold. Any time you charge a draw to hit, if he calls, you make money even if he is correct to call. [Original emphasis.]

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. If someone is on a 3:1 draw (like a flush) and you only bet 1/3 the pot (giving him 4:1 on his call), he makes money by calling you, even if the flush doesn't hit, because he is playing correctly. The FTOP states that you win anytime your opponent plays incorrectly, and you lose anytime he plays correctly. To me, that means poker is all about avoiding, inducing, and capitalizing on mistakes.

If I put someone on a flush draw at the flop, and I'm ahead in the hand, I want it to be a mistake for him to call. So I want to bet such that he's getting 5:2 (or less) on his call. If he calls and misses, then at the turn I want him to get less than 11:2 on his call. If he calls then, and hits -- and provided I don't pay him off -- I've "won" (in FTOP terms), even though I lost this pot, because he was mistaken to make those call.

That "and provided I don't pay him off" is very important, though, and it's something a lot of players overlook. (I don't mean anyone here.) If you're going to charge me bad odds to make my draw, but then pay me off for your entire stack when I hit the draw, I'm correct to make those "bad" calls because of the implied odds.

Cris

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I disagree


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you understood my point properly. My fault. Let me try it this way.

If you bet and someone has odds to call, you would like them to fold, of course: that's a FTOP mistake and that's where the money comes from in this game.

Similarly, if you bet and someone does not have odds to call, you'd like them to call.

However, if you are ahead and your opponent is drawing, it is better to bet something, even if it gives the opponent his odds and he correctly calls, than to bet nothing. In this case I suppose it is an FTOP mistake on your part not to bet. Of course you'd like him to fold in that case. It hurts you when he calls. But it hurts you more if you don't bet.

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

Cris,

I've just spotted how poorly I phrased my original post. Apologies for that:

[ QUOTE ]
Any time you charge a draw to hit, if he calls, you make money even if he is correct to call

[/ QUOTE ]

What I mean here is that your bet makes you money, and his call costs you money, but the net return (money made from your correct bet minus money lost from his correct call) is better than you get by checking.

Guy.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Guy,

I agree here. If you're ahead and you let your opponent draw for free -- because you don't want to risk a large enough bet that he would be mistaken to call -- it's an even worse mistake than a less-than-optimal bet.

And in some cases, a less-than-optimal bet might be the more correct play. If your opponent is tight enough that he doesn't like to chase a draw for any significant risk, and you can bet him off the pot for less, you win two ways: he makes a mistake by folding, and you risk fewer chips to win the pot.

Cris

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
and you risk fewer chips to win the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

There are definitely cases where this is a benefit, but in a case like this where you want to go to the felt, risking fewer chips isn't something to worry about.

[1800GAMBLER]

Set VS flush draw is pretty interesting against a person who plays almost perfect. Since if you bet just the correct amount for the outs he thinks he has he would be incorrect to call, since he has less outs than he thinks.

VERY IMPORTANTLY: If he does hit you have a big redraw on him, so if you had deep stack sizes you could bet even less on the flop.

None of this applies to this hand though, heh.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

Set VS flush draw is pretty interesting against a person who plays almost perfect. Since if you bet just the correct amount for the outs he thinks he has he would be incorrect to call, since he has less outs than he thinks.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes indeedy. On a card by card basis it's farily negligible, since he's only missing one out (unless drawing dead when the turn pairs the board), but for an all-in bet on the flop it's very important. If you can bet just the pot all-in, giving 2-1, your opponent will call since he's better than 2-1 to hit the flush; but he's more like 3-1 to win the pot, so you make a nice profit. Sweet.

I managed this once. Flush hit.

To Ulysses: sorry for hijacking the thread.

Guy.