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View Full Version : should i muck this


carl73
03-18-2004, 11:54 AM
I'm in the big blind with 5d 3s, middle player, button and small blind call. I check.

Flop comes 4s Th 2d giving me an open ended draw. I bet, mp raises, button reraises, sb folds, I call.

Turn card is 3h. I check, mp bets, button raises, i call.

River is Jh. I check, mp checks, button bets, i fold, mp calls, button wins with pocket aces.

I'm wondering whether it would have been better to just fold on the flop or turn.

I continued to call becuase it seemed that the pot odds were there all along and, and i figured that if I made my hand it would be a winner.

What I didn't consider was the potential that after calling the flop and turn, I could've easily been rereaised by MP making the pot odds less favorable and that if I was up against a set, which I thought likely given the betting, that I could have made my hand on the flop and been redrawn.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

beerbandit
03-18-2004, 12:52 PM
It's hard to say with little information about the players. Evreyone limps in but you must use your knowledge from previous hands to help judge what cards they may be playing. What hands would they limp with and why does this flop give them opportunity to rasie/reraise/call three small bets. This is what I would use on whether to bet or check the flop. If they are aggresive players I may have tried a check raise---being in the BB extremely widens the range of hands that you may have. True you may be facing a set the MP most likely would have bumped if they had it. Calling after your bet shows weakness and then your check on the turn confirms. I may have played the turn a little more aggresive and bet out---you do have a pair now atleast and possible another out. Unless you really believe someone has a set--and if raised or three-bet again lay it down. It may have gotten a little ugly if the Ace would have fell.

Eric P
03-18-2004, 02:22 PM
I don't think you should have bet out, you only have 8 outs, you will probably need runner runner trips to win the hand but you really don't want what did happen to happen. With crappy draws where I figure to get raised i check/call. If you thought it might win then of course do it, but with that ragged board 2 overcards are probably calling, this is one of those "a draw is just a draw" hands i think

bicyclekick
03-18-2004, 02:31 PM
I almost always bet that flop. Espeically with so few people in the hand. If htere was a lot of people in the hand and i really thought the guy next to me would bet and there would be a lot of callers i may c/r, but betting out is pretty standard. Fold on the flop or turn? Are you kidding me? You're about even money on all money going in on the flop and the pot is so large on the turn it would be a big mistake to fold, unless you think you're now drawing dead to 56, which i don't even think you can consider.

Standard play, good hand.

carl73
03-18-2004, 03:38 PM
Thanks for the replies. My real concern here is the effect of being redrawn . Assuming I was correct in putting one of the players on a set, which I wasn't, then of the roughly 20% of times I make it on the turn, I get redrwawn on the river roughly 30% of the time. Are all these factor together(having the right read and making my hand and being redrawn) too much to bother considering?

carl73
03-18-2004, 04:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming I was correct in putting one of the players on a set, which I wasn't, then of the roughly 20% of times I make it on the turn, I get redrwawn on the river roughly 30% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ] I meant I would be redrawn 20% of the times that I made it.

Nightwish
03-18-2004, 04:18 PM
I would muck this on the flop. You may be just barely getting the right odds to call the re-raise, but what happens if MP caps it? This will end up being a very expensive draw. Not to mention that it STILL may not be good if the button has a set and spikes a full house on the river.

elysium
03-18-2004, 04:18 PM
hi carl
you should bet the turn.