Checking behind on the turn with Kings

[Trix]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+1 shows 9c Tc (flush, ten high).
Hero shows Ks Kd (two pair, kings and eights).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 7.25 BB. </font>

[Jezebel]

I'm sure you are going to get the masses yelling at you to bet the turn, but I like the check.
The 8 brings in two hands that I could reasonably put opponnet on at that point. Folding to a checkraise headsup is poor unless you have an excellent read on your opponent, since alot of stuff gets pulled when HU. If he has a club draw your bet is not going to prevent you from losing the pot. If he has an 8 then you give yourself infinite odds to catch on the river. Overcards are not a big issue. This is also a board where you would expect your opponent to bluff on the turn if he did not have anything, but he chose to check. You may also induce a bluff on the river. I only bet here if I can confidently fold to a checkraise.

[MaxPower]

Like many things I think this is player dependent. If you can confidently fold to a check-raise, I think betting is still better. If you can't, Its not a big problem to check behind when heads-up. At worst, you are giving a free card to a smaller pair with a club or Ax. At best you you get a worse hand to bet into you or bluff the river.

[sthief09]

I think this is a great check. If you bet the turn, he's either going to raise you or fold. Now, I feel like regardless of whether he has something or not, he'll bet the river. Also, if you had gotten check-raised on the turn, you'd have probably had to fold. But by checking, you give yourself a free 2-outer on the river to fill up.

My only concern is that if he held one small club, and the river had been a club, it would have turned out bad.

But I think it probably takes a really good player to make that play. That check is something I don't think I'm capable of making.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
My only concern is that if he held one small club, and the river had been a club, it would have turned out bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how it would turn out worse. A club is not going to fold to a turn bet, so if a rivered club does fall you save yourself 3 BB by checking through.

If you bet this turn, it is not to prevent a club draw from getting there, but to try and stop an overcard or bottom pair from drawing out on you. If you can confidently fold your hand to a raise knowing that you are drawing dead then betting is a good plan. However, if you bet and are raised in this situation (implying that you are behind), you will not have the odds to call the raise to try and improve and must therefore fold. With KK I have enough of a hand to see a showdown and I'd be kicking myself if I have to fold it on the turn. So our choices are bet the turn possible preventing a pair/overcard from drawing out at the risk of having to fold our hand if they play back at us, OR risk giving a free card to pair/overcard and get to see a showdown for one bet AND gain myself a free card if in fact I was behind on the turn.

[aas]

He bet-calls this flop and the turn is scary enough. Check is good.

aas.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My only concern is that if he held one small club, and the river had been a club, it would have turned out bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how it would turn out worse. A club is not going to fold to a turn bet, so if a rivered club does fall you save yourself 3 BB by checking through.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif is going to call the turn? Doubtful.

[MaxPower]

Another bad outcome is if a 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif would have called the turn and you don't bet.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
So the 5 is going to call the turn? Doubtful.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a headsup spot, yes I think they will call with a 5. The point is a checkraise puts you in a terrible spot regardless of whether it is with a made hand or a semibluff. Risking the free card is the lessor of the two evils in my opinion.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
Another bad outcome is if a 5 would have called the turn and you don't bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you knew that he held a single club, then yes I agree that betting is they play. However, we don't know for sure what he has. He could have trip 8's (bad bet for us), made flush (bad bet for us), single club (good bet as long as he doesn't decide to checkraise with it), a pair that needs to hit a two outer(a bet from us might get him to correctly fold-neutral), an overcard Ace (might get them to correctly fold). When we look at our opponents most likely holdings, I would say an 8, two clubs, or one club, we are most likely the one who needs the free card.

If we are ahead on the turn, then we may gain the bet we missed on the river thru a bluff. Giving a free card is not tragic when in fact you might be giving yourself a free card.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Giving a free card is not tragic when in fact you might be giving yourself a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with you about whether a small club is calling the turn anyway, but I think the above statement is right on.

I think I remember reading something in Poker Essays 3 where Mason says that giving an opponent a free card with only 1 possible overcard isn't tragic. I'm going to look for it and I'll post the jist of the essay if I can find it.

[MaxPower]

Essentially, I think you should bet the turn if you know what to do when raised. If your opponent is the type who will only bet and call a raise on the flop with reasonble holdings and is capable of a check-raise semi-bluff, then checking behind on the turn is OK. I would not make a habit of it though. There are not that many players who will check-raise semibluff the turn after you've raised twice.

If your opponent is a calling station then you should bet and fold to raise.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponent is a calling station then you should bet and fold to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

See, here is where I disagree. With this board, you simply cannot continue in the hand if you are raised. If you are raised you can assume you are behind a flush or trips. The thing is you have 4 outs to beat a flush and 2 outs to beat trips. If he raises you for whatever reason you deny your chance to improve. This is tragic because you turned down infinite odds and must now fold, or call incorrectly. The only way you can continue in the hand is if put your opponent on a bluff, because you will not have the odds to call the turn raise. This is a situation where you "check the turn with outs". If you did not have two pair on the turn, thus no outs to draw out on the hand your opponent might represent, then you can bet and fold with confidence - "bet the turn with no outs". Worrying about free cards should be a secondary concern in this situation, since we can't be confident that we are not the one who needs the free card.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
With this board, you simply cannot continue in the hand if you are raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, this isn't always true. Against most opponents, it is, but some will semi-bluff check-raise you. Anyway, if you know you can't continue when raised, betting is definitely a good idea.

[ QUOTE ]
. If he raises you for whatever reason you deny your chance to improve. This is tragic because you turned down infinite odds and must now fold, or call incorrectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're completely ignoring all the times that you bet and are called twice and YHIG.

[MaxPower]

If you played this hand a thousand times against a calling station you would win more money by betting and folding to a raise. I don't think I have to spell it out for you.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, if you know you can't continue when raised, betting is definitely a good idea.


[/ QUOTE ]

No it is not. If you are folding to a raise then I'm assuming that you give him credit for the flush or trips. You have outs to beat a flush or trips, so folding this turn is tragic when you could have given yourself infinite odds to improve. Betting if you can call the raise correctly (i.e. you have a set with 10 outs vs. 2 pair with 4 outs) is the ideal situation. You can prevent free cards and call a raise realizing that you need to improve. In this situation we only have 4 outs and it would be poor poker to call the raise, hence we gave up infinite odds to improve just to try and prevent the few free cards that could beat us. And please don't tell me your bet is to prevent the flush from coming. A bet here should be designed to get Aces, pocket pairs/bottom pair to fold. The flush draw is a coming.

[Jezebel]

[ QUOTE ]
If you played this hand a thousand times against a calling station you would win more money by betting and folding to a raise. I don't think I have to spell it out for you.


[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I disagree. Calling stations don't usually bet the flop with nothing. Any hand that can bet that flop and call a raise is a hand that that I have narrowed to the point that I'm checking behind on the turn. Not out of fear, but because its the best play in my opinion when you weigh the pro vs. cons.

[spamuell]

Obviously you don't like having to fold to the raise but, as I said before, you're completely ignoring all those times you bet for value on the turn and river. If you check behind on the turn, you gain one less BB when you're ahead and lose the same as if you had bet the turn when behind.

On the turn, the pot is 5.25BB. Add 3BBs for your bet and his raise and subtract 0.25BBs for rake and you have an 8BB pot. Add another two bets for his river bet and call of your raise and you have a 9BB pot. If you have four outs then you will make your hand 1 time every 11.5 hands, so you are giving up a 10BB pot one time in 11.5 hands, which is the same as 0.87BB/hand.

This is the best case scenario as often you will not be making nearly as many bets from him as I postulated, and I included one of your own bets because I wasn't sure if I should and I felt like being generous (:D), and I assumed four outs rather than the two which you'll often (perhaps even usually) have.

Now, of course you don't make 1BB every single hand that you bet and he calls, because sometimes he'll draw out on you. He can have between two and fifteen outs against you (the only 15 out hand is A3 with a club, the next is a twelve out hand which is 76 with a club and then 13 with a pair and a flush draw. Other than those two hands, the most outs he can have is nine). I don't have time to do all the math right now to work out all the combinations, but you will on average make less than 0.87BB/hand by betting.

But, you then have to factor in all the times that you bet and he folds. You will find a percentage (fulcrum) that this has to be above for this turn bet to be profitable. Feel free to work it out, I'd be interested in the result, but I'm pretty sure that it's low enough that you can profitably bet.

I hope I did everything right here, tell me if I didn't.

[Jezebel]

Assuming a reasonable opponent, your bet on the turn is either going to be a)checkraised by a better hand or b)folded by a worse hand since that board is just as threatening to him, so I'm not banking on value betting with one pair in this situaiton. If there is a value bet there it is awful thin IMO. If I am ahead on the turn then I am giving a free card to a few hands that might be able to draw out on me that would have folded if I bet. However, these hands have about 2 or 3 outs at most and are not the most likely candidates for hands that my opponent holds. My best guess for someone that will call from EP preflop and then bet into the preflop raiser and call a raise on the flop are hands that contain an 8 such as A8s., or a flush/straight draw. There is an outside chance at a middle pair or small/medium pocket pair, but those hands have very few outs against me. I'm not worried at all about overcards to the flop (other than an ace) because they are all drawing dead. I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not throughly convinced I'm ahead on the turn and even if I am a bet is not going to achieve much but maybe prevent a hand that already has a long shot to draw out on me. Betting to stop those hands is not worth getting thumped by the more likely hands that I'm behind. Getting sucked out once every 22 hands is a risk I would be willing to take to avoid having to fold on the turn and realize that I just turned down infinite odds to improve. It costs you one bet on the turn to find out if your behind, where you have to fold. It also costs you one bet to see if your behind on the river where you get to show down.