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mikeyshemp
03-18-2004, 12:29 AM
I'm a little new to poker and posting(my first one), and was just wondering how to figure out the probability of winning, with say pocket 10 10, when compared to the hands you THINK your opponent might go all in with(NLHE). I have it set up like this, but I'm not too sure if my math is correct(or my approach):

Hands opp might hold
Favorite
88--10 10 lose 1 out of 5
99--" "lose 1 out of 5
AK off--" "lose 5 out of 11
AKs--" "lose 5 out of 11
AQ off--" "lose 5 out of 11
ADs--" "lose 5 out 0f 11
AJs-- " lose 5 out of 11
TOTAL lose 27--win 38

Underdog
AA--10 10 lose 4 out of 5
KK-- " lose 4 out of 5
QQ-- " lose 4 out of 5
JJ-- " lose 4 out of 5
TOTAL lose 16--win 4

ODDS lose 43 win 42
43-42 Underdog?

Can someone let me know if this is right?
Is this a reliable strategy to use against hands you THINK your opp might hold, if so, any tips on figuring these odds out faster(such as, in your head)?

Thanks

mikeyshemp

Lost Wages
03-18-2004, 11:39 AM
You can't simply add the wins and losses because your opponents hands are not equally likely. There are six ways to make a pair but 16 ways to make a non pair. In other words, if your opponent would only move in with AA, KK or AKs/o then he is a 4:3 favorite to be holding AK instead of AA and KK combined.

I don't know where you got your wins and losses and I haven't checked to see if they are correct, but assuming that they are, you need to weight each match-up based on the probability of him actually holding that hand.

If you are more interested in the answer that the process of solving the problem, you can just download Poker Stove (http://www.pokerstove.com). You enter your hand and your opponents range of hands and it will tell you your equity.

Lost Wages

James Boston
03-18-2004, 12:32 PM
I'm a little confused, but I'll try to reply. If you're holding a pocket pair of any size, and you think your opponent is playing overcards, you're about 6-5. Assuming this is a pre-flop all-in situation, it's almost a coin toss. If you think you're opponent has a higher pocket pair than you, screw the odds and fold. It's a 2-outer to make trips and I can't conceive how pot odds might justify that.