Calling 3 cold preflop

[Brian462]

This is one of the first times I've called 3 bets cold preflop. It worked out well for me in the end but I was hoping to get some feedback about it.

The table I'm at is VERY loose and usually pretty passive. They are not likely to make any sort of laydown so many showdowns are had with 3 or more players.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Brian462 is Button with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 3-bets, MP1 (poster) calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Brian462 calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Brian462 calls, BB calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, Brian462 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (20 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Brian462 bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds.

River: (23 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Brian462 bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 25 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 25 BB, between UTG and Brian462.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Brian462 (25 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG shows Ks Kd (two pair, kings and sixes).
Brian462 shows 6d 6c (four of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: Brian462 wins 25 BB. </font>

Preflop, I figured at least one of the blinds was coming along but I also thought there was a better than average chance that it would be capped. I pretty much considered it calling 4 bets when I made the call. On the upside, I'm likely against at least 1 big pair so I'm almost assured action when I do hit my set.

Postflop, I didn't slowplay at all simply because I figured I would get lots of action. I was hoping to get some raises in on the turn or river but it worked out well enough.

Mainly I was hoping to get confirmation on whether the call preflop was good or not, but any comments on my play on any street will be appreciated.

[siccjay]

Same thing happened to me once but I had 55 and I folded it. Flopped a 5 and the turn was a 5. Nice 22 dollar pot I missed out on. Now I wanna play 22 to a cap ahahah

[bwana devil]

i dont like the call on the preflop. i would have folded. id only call really big hands w/ 3bets to me. AA-JJ,AKs, AQs, AKo, etc.

you got lucky. but lucky pays sometimes.

[Trix]

Try estimating your implied odds, then you will know if it was a good call.

[Brian462]

At first glance I think the implied odds look great. That's why I made the call in the first place. I put in 2 BB's preflop and ended up with about 19BB's profit in the end.

But the part that worries me is the negative implied odds. I think the chances are greater than normal that I'm up more than 1 big pair here so there's a bigger chance of me ending up with an underset, which is very expensive.

My whole question was whether or not I have the implied odds to make this call. What do you think?

[HUSKER'66]

IMO not really......you cold called three with 10/3 pot odds coming to you and even counting on the original raiser and the UTG +1 coming along your still 12/3 or 4/1 and hoping to flop a set at 8/1 vs higher pockets not a good play. Did you not think that the original raiser in EP wouldn't cap?


I'm glad it worked for you this time, but you got lucky and I wouldn't reccomend this type of play on a regular basis. You want to play those small pockets in late position for no raise with lots of limpers. You'll still make a killing when you do flop the set but risk much less and can release if you don't hit on the flop and the board looks unattractive.

Outwit , outplay, outlast! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Nottom]

I did this with TT once, and no body liked it when I did it either. What sucks is that then I had to call the flop because the pot was so freaking huge.

Neadless to say, I didn't end up with quads so I'm not quite as fond of the play now.

[Brian462]

I've been thinking about this all night, and I still think the call is good. I actually thought of capping it here! (to give me a chance of receiving a free look at the turn. I dismissed this idea because I thought there wasn't much of a chance of it checking to me.)

When I made it, I thought it was almost routine. 5 possibly 6 seeing the flop and I'm looking to get TONS of action those times I happen to hit. Anytime I don't hit I make an easy fold(either on the flop or turn depending on pot size/no. of bets etc..). I lose 2BBs 6.5/7.5 times which means those times that I do hit I have to make about 15BBs which seemed very easy given the aggression shown here. Even w/ adding the increased chance for an underset I think the implied odds are there.

After posting and not having even 1 person agree with me, I'm now more confused then ever. I don't understand why the call is bad, but more than a few seem to think its OBVIOUSLY bad. I'd really like to hear more on this because I might have a hole in my thinking somewhere.

Can someone please elaborate for me. I might be sounding really dumb but I just don't understand what makes this a bad call.

Thanks.

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
But the part that worries me is the negative implied odds. I think the chances are greater than normal that I'm up more than 1 big pair here so there's a bigger chance of me ending up with an underset, which is very expensive.


[/ QUOTE ]
I dont think you should worry too much about that, as the chances that you both hit a set is pretty slim(He would have to hit in 2 cards).
The way I see it is: It will in worst case be 5 ways for 4 bets, meaning that you will have to make 3.5*4 =15 small bets after the flop.
I would think that there is a good chance that you can make this after the flop, with all the preflop action and some more, for the times you loose.

[ QUOTE ]
My whole question was whether or not I have the implied odds to make this call. What do you think?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
you will have to make 3.5*4 =15 small bets after the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you get this? Surely, as he's putting in 2BB pre-flop, and the odds of hitting are 7.5:1, he needs to make 15BB post-flop, no?

[Trix]

I asumed it would be 5 ways for 4 small bets at worst. So he is getting 4:1 in imidiate(cant spell it, hope you understand) odds, so he will have to make up for those 3.5:1 he is missing, plus a little more for when he hits and looses.
so 3.5*4SB (or 2BB as you say) = 14SB(ups /images/graemlins/blush.gif) or 7BBs.

[spamuell]

I just wrote a really long post explaining why your math was wrong, but deleted it because I suddenly realised we were talking about different things.

I'm talking about the total pot size, and you're talking about the money that needs to be put in after the flop. Sorry for the misunderstanding. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

EDIT:

I realised we were talking about different so I wrote the above explanation, but one of us is still wrong.

If we assume the set wins 100% of the time, the pot needs to be 15BB at the river in order to break even (7.5:1 on the original 2BBs). Your calculations show it needs to be 17BB (4*5 = 20SB pre-flop + the 14SB you mention post-flop).

Do you know where this difference arises?

N.B. It's "immediate" odds. I know English isn't your first language.

[Trix]

The 14 I mention is what hero needs to make from the other players postflop.

[ QUOTE ]
Your calculations show it needs to be 17BB

[/ QUOTE ] It would need to be more, as hero will put bets in postflop aswell.

[ QUOTE ]
If we assume the set wins 100% of the time, the pot needs to be 15BB at the river in order to break even (7.5:1 on the original 2BBs).

[/ QUOTE ]
Same, needs to be bigger as hero will put money in postflop.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think you should worry too much about that, as the chances that you both hit a set is pretty slim(He would have to hit in 2 cards).

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with that. These are big pairs that will probably not be folded before the river (remember those implied odds we are assuming). That's four chances to hit a set--about 16%. The risk of hitting a set here and losing anyway is elevated and that needs to be considered.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
The table I'm at is VERY loose and usually pretty passive. They are not likely to make any sort of laydown so many showdowns are had with 3 or more players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anticipating that many opponents, and the action postflop should you hit, id call. You know at least one likely has a high pair. That's a given. So you know you have to hit your set to continue.

You have to make at least 12 sbs/6 bbs postflop (32sbs - 20sbs from your opponents preflop already in when the action stops) if you hit to make it worth your while. And with this many opponents its very likely theyll pay off. Many of these guys will usually jam an overpair on the flop and a little on the turn before they think of a set.

The tough part is when you miss the flop. If lots of action, then you have to fold it as your effective odds for seeing the turn for 3 to 4 bets are shot. You wont likely recoup for a 22-1 shot what you will put in on the flop to see the turn.

Say you anticipate 3 bets possible on the flop. That means youd have to drag 66sbs to make it profitable. That's a tough row to hoe at that point.

By my count, you collected 7 extra sbs on top of your 8-1.

nice hand

b

[sthief09]

I agree that the chance that he flops a set and loses is a BIG factor here.

Odds that he runs into a bigger set, assuming a big pair is out

C(2,1)*C(46,3)/C(48,4) = 15.6%

48 cards, and since it's a big pair he's assumed to see the river. He gets 4 chances, since 1 will be your set card.

A set over set will occur about 12% of the time that he flops a set, assuming there's a 75% chance someone has a big pair. So overally he'll probably win only 85% of the time that he flops a set.

Now if there's TWO big pairs out, the situation gets much worse.