Bubble Boy

[CCass]

I have been struggling with my play in this hand for a week now, so I am going to post it and let you guys dissect my poor play.

Multi Table NLHE on Party, 1361 entrants down to the final 11 (well into the money). Everyone was playing super conservative, trying to make the final table. I was on the table with 6 players, blinds 7,500 and 15,000 with a 200 ante.

I am in SB with 110K in chips (2 players had about 250K, 6 of us were in the 100K-125K range, and 3 had in the 70K range), UTG(125K) raises to 30K, all fold to me. I have 77, and after considering the possibility that UTG was stealing, or would lay down a lot of good hands, I re-raise all-in. UTG calls and shows AQo. Flop includes an A, I get no help on the turn or river, and get the bubble boy prize.

I am not sure why I brain farted and re-raised all-in. All I had to do was call, see the flop with an Ace, and fold to any bet. I just can't get over how badly I played this hand. I would have still been a factor with 80K left.

Let me have it guys, don't pull any punches.

[gigahurts]

You already know you made a wrong move. I've been there... don't do it again ok? It just wasn't worth it.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
...and after considering the possibility that UTG was stealing, or would lay down a lot of good hands, I re-raise all-in...

[/ QUOTE ]

You considered it and what was your decision? There are certainly players and situations where I would push with a medium pair vs. an UTG raiser 6-handed. If this player had been raising every 3rd pot or something, it was a perfectly reasonable move. If this player was reasonable, you probably need to respect the UTG raise and call or fold (if I wasn't going to raise here, I'd probably fold; I hate playing medium pairs out of position...)

[J.R.]

Being a likely big dog/small favorite up against a stack that can bust you while not in immediate chip danger I would wait for a better spot, such as where I could put the first raise into the pot, even if UTG had been raising a lot. There is also a decent money leap between 11 and the final table here, and for each subsuquent spot thereafter so I might look to stay out of trouble.

I also wouldn't call here for over 1/4th of my stack. With everyone playing conservatively you should be able to steal rather easily so I don't see the need to gamble with at best a small edge when the chips can still be gotten with less risk in other spots.

[cferejohn]

I take back the 'call' idea; this is too much of your stack. Usually fold. If UTG is super aggressive and could be pushing a marginal (or nothing) hand UTG (this is pretty rare), go all-in.

You *could* try a stop and go (call and push on any flop), but I think your stack is to deep to make that a better play than just pushing all-in preflop; you have enough money to make him lay down a mediocre hand (if you only had twice the raise and you wanted to play a medium pair, I'd go with that).

[curmudgeon]

Although AQ made a mistake by calling, you did put all your chips at risk. And at Party you are most likely going to get called.

You got all your chips in the pot with the best hand.... /images/graemlins/cool.gif
So, you lost this time.... that's poker.
Wait for the final table before you do this next time.
It's worth the wait!

Patience & Survival....

[sdplayerb]

I think you're completely right in every way.
Unless it is a maniac, you just fold.
You are creating a situation where you are a big underdog, or a small favorite..and with his being UTG, much more likely you are a big underdog.
You ended up being a small favorite, but this was best case scenario, and not worth the risk since you had so much more than the BB.

[Senor Choppy]

The difference between 10th and 11th on Party doesn't ever seem to be that great. If you thought you could've easily made 4th or 5th by folding a few more hands than you would otherwise, then maybe you made a mistake, but hanging on for 9th or 10th instead of 11th is nothing to concern yourself with. Stay aggressive, ESPECIALLY when you think people are tightening up to try and make the money or final table, or whatever it is they think is worth folding too often for.

I'm not sure if 77 is enough of a hand to warrant this play, depends on your opponent, but is definitely worth considering. There's over 50k out there to pick up if the UTG folds (maybe he decides going out 11th just isn't worth the risk and folds...if he loses this he's done and he knows this). And if you know he's just got overcards this is a great opportunity to double up.

Calling shouldn't be an option here. It's unlikely he's raising with something other than a big ace or a pair, so seeing a flop without an ace doesn't really help you. You bet and he folds if he had an ace, you bet, get called, and lose if he has a pocket pair. It's all-in or fold here.

[J.R.]

With 1361 entrants, 11th pays .7% of the prize pool, 10th pays 1% of the prize pool and 9th pays 1.5% of the prize pool. My math indicates

11th = 285
10th = 408
9th = 612

I think if the others are playing tight trying to get to the final table, its not worth it to tange here when the most likely favorable spot is to be up against overcards. Maybe UTG has a smaller pair, but I would doubt it unless UTG was playing more aggressively than we have been told. Given we have no info that UTG was getting out of line, I think we have to assume we are either way behind to as bigger pair or slightly ahead of overcards here.

By my count there is 23,700 in the pot preflop plus UTG's 30K bet means a 53,700 pot. If hero pushes his remaining 110k, there would be 163,700 in the pot and UTG has another 80K to call. UTG has odds to call with a decently wide range of hands getting just over 2-1 here.

With the other opponents playing tightly it sounds like there will be many less risky opportunities for hero to pick up the 23,700 in blinds and antes. And with 3 opponents with 70K or so and tables 5 and 6 handed he can afford to wait for one to bust, pick up the blinds in the meantime and better than double his prize money by being patient.

I agree he can't just call here. Its important to be aggressive, but when somebody has already shown aggression with a stack that can bust you and you are confident there will be great opportunites to steal the blinds and antes and increase your stack by 25% if you fold, I think discretion is called for with a middle pair.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Although AQ made a mistake by calling, you did put all your chips at risk. And at Party you are most likely going to get called.


[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, UTG did not make a mistake from a FTOP/pot-odds view. He's calling ~100K chips into a pot with ~160K, a little better than 3:2, and he's not that much of a dog. The only hands he'd be making a mistake against are AK, AA, KK, and QQ.

If you want to make the argument that the fact that the money is about to start elevating rapidly so passing up this moderate +EV opportunity is better than taking it, OK, but I think it is really really close.

[esknights]

That is a good episode.

[curmudgeon]

Yes, I think its all about the money$$$ here.
But you are right, it may be worth the risk. /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[CCass]

I appreciate all of the responses, as several good points were made. Given three choices (fold, call, or all-in), I now think that fold was the best option, but going all-in is better than calling. Thanks for the advice.

[cferejohn]

Seems like a time to think about how much better/worse you are than the field. If he (the AQo) thinks he is about average or worse for the field, it's a clear call. The better he thinks he is relative the field, the more OK folding becomes.

When it gets down to the final 11 out of a big tournament, I usually assume that I am a little above average. There are probably some worse players who have gotten lucky, but there are probably a couple players who are as good (or, dare I say it, better) than me, so at final tables, or close to them, I'll usually take what looks like a moderate +EV gamble that I might pass up early on.

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
With 1361 entrants, 11th pays .7% of the prize pool, 10th pays 1% of the prize pool and 9th pays 1.5% of the prize pool. My math indicates

11th = 285
10th = 408
9th = 612

[/ QUOTE ]

I was looking at other completed 1000+ multi tournaments, and 9th seems to be less than 2x 11th, for what it's worth.

[ QUOTE ]
I think if the others are playing tight trying to get to the final table, its not worth it to tange here when the most likely favorable spot is to be up against overcards. Maybe UTG has a smaller pair, but I would doubt it unless UTG was playing more aggressively than we have been told. Given we have no info that UTG was getting out of line, I think we have to assume we are either way behind to as bigger pair or slightly ahead of overcards here.

By my count there is 23,700 in the pot preflop plus UTG's 30K bet means a 53,700 pot. If hero pushes his remaining 110k, there would be 163,700 in the pot and UTG has another 80K to call. UTG has odds to call with a decently wide range of hands getting just over 2-1 here.

With the other opponents playing tightly it sounds like there will be many less risky opportunities for hero to pick up the 23,700 in blinds and antes. And with 3 opponents with 70K or so and tables 5 and 6 handed he can afford to wait for one to bust, pick up the blinds in the meantime and better than double his prize money by being patient.

I agree he can't just call here. Its important to be aggressive, but when somebody has already shown aggression with a stack that can bust you and you are confident there will be great opportunites to steal the blinds and antes and increase your stack by 25% if you fold, I think discretion is called for with a middle pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 7s are a little too weak to make this play, I agree. 99 sounds good to me, anything lower seems questionable.

I must say I love making this play (moving in against a guy that open-raised hoping to buy the blinds + a 3x blinds raise), although I seem to have a pretty tight image b/c of my name on Party and the fact that I don't play as many hands. For me, it seems like it's a lot easier to try and pick up 50k without showing my hand with something like 77 here, than try and pick up 10k, 5 different times, which tells people you're raising standards are much lower and gets you played back at more often.

With this specific situation though, you convinced me that folding here's correct.