QTs in BB

[SoBeDude]

Online 20-40

one open-limper in MP who's getting lucky. A poor player overall I think.

Folded to SB who raises. I call with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Flop is 2 small hearts and a Queen. SB bets out. Whats my play?

I think if I raise the MP will probably fold. So I'm driving out a customer with a hand with many outs. I also think if I just call, the MP will call as well. Also I don't want to slow down the SB who might be behind.

I called.

Comments?

-Scott

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise.

[astroglide]

it's not just "so many outs", it's a made hand too. i would call here.

[nykenny]

easy raise on flop. if 3 bet by SB, cap it but slow down on turn. too many outs aside from the good possibility of be best to slow down on flop.

Kenny

[Gabe]

Jeez, just raise, man.

"I think if I raise the MP will probably fold. So I'm driving out a customer with a hand with many outs. I also think if I just call, the MP will call as well. Also I don't want to slow down the SB who might be behind."

Okay, nice experiment, but you've cost yourself money, I think. They call because they think you have a flush draw. They raise because they think you have a flush draw. If you make the flush they call because, just because.

You have a hand with a lot of current value and a lot of potential value. Protect it's current value. Maximize it's potential value.

[CrackerZack]

Raise.

You're considering keeping in 1 player, not an army, you can get that bet from the SB too with a raise.

[SinCityGuy]

I would raise. You've got top pair and a big draw, but if the flush doesn't get there then your queen/weak kicker is vulnerable. Raising will probably drive out a lone ace or king.

[Nightwish]

I totally agree for all the reasons you mentioned. Plus, you don't want to risk getting 3-bet by the SB.

[Nightwish]

Ooops, I totally misread the hand! I didn't notice that the flop had a Q! That changes everything, I now think you should raise. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Mike Gallo]

I will jump on the raise bandwagon.

[astroglide]

what about the bb on the turn if mp has a hand or turns a draw? better hands will call or raise, and worse hands may fold. this is presumably at paradise and a full game, which is tighter than a party full game. it is a disaster if people fold worse hands here.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
if the flush doesn't get there then your queen/weak kicker is vulnerable. Raising will probably drive out a lone ace or king.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you want to drive out a 3-outer in a small pot?. it's very possibly a 2-outer given that a heart ace or king gives you a flush.

[andyfox]

My thinking is I have one pair with a mediocre kicker and a draw I'll miss more often than I'll make. The fewer opponents the better. Hopefully, my raise will eliminate both of them.

[sleepyjoeyt]

I think it is a MUST RAISE situation.

If you knew MP held KQ, what would you do?

If you knew MP held a higher heart draw, what would you do?

If you knew MP held a lower flush draw, what would you do?

I am not at all sure that you are ahead right now, which means it is an ideal time to get people the hell out of your pot. I'd put pressure on them.

This pressure will also give you a pretty decent read on the strength of their hand. If someone threebets you, this is either the MP trying to get the turn free for his flush draw, or a real strong hand behind you.

There is an outside chance you are drawing thin (queen with a higher kicker in one hand and a higher flush draw in the other) but I'd say that is unlikely.

Your hand is certainly vulnerable but I think its likely enough that you are ahead so you want to get more money in there, against two opponents.

At the same time, if MP folds to your raise and your heads up with small blind, that's a good spot to be in, too.

You have a real nice hand, with various ways to win, but your hand ain't that great that you want people to stay in. IF you win it now, that'd be good enough for me.

After all, you've got a flush draw but not THE flush draw, and you've got top pair, but with a 10 kicker.

Lots of fun with this hand, but not lots of power.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully, my raise will eliminate both of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that is totally scared poker. if they have worse hands you want them in, and they're not going to fold better ones. i would be unhappy if i raised and either of them folded, because it would mean they folded a worse hand.

[SA125]

"You have a hand with a lot of current value and a lot of potential value. Protect it's current value. Maximize it's potential value."

Worth repeating.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not at all sure that you are ahead right now, which means it is an ideal time to get people the hell out of your pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're not sure if you're ahead, how does raising help? worse hands can fold, better hands will call or or raise, and you must stay in because of the flush draw. knocking out worse hands is dumb.

[Softrock]

Hi Astro: I'm with you here. It surprises me that people who would take it as gospel that the goal of successful poker is to win the most money not the most pots are missing the idea that while you might slightly lessen the chances of winning the pot by flat calling you are increasing the longterm EV. You are doing this in two ways as your posts indicate. First, you stand to win alot more by keeping longshot chasers in. Second, you aren't costing yourself more money should you be behind a hand like AQ of KQ or even an overpair.

It took me quite awhile to grasp this concept and it's one I'm still learning to apply. It is almost knee jerk for me to try to maximize my chances of winning the hand as opposed to thinking more deeply about the best longterm play. I admit that my first reaction here was also to raise to protect my Queen mediocre kicker but fortunately I'm learning not to just go with my first knee jerk reaction.

I appreciate your continued insights.

[astroglide]

thanks. i'm on the 2+2 irc chatroom now and ulysses' reasoning is that people will call with much worse hands, and he wants to build a pot. i would agree with that sentiment on his standard 6-handed party games, but in a full paradise (tighter than party) 10-handed game i'm more inclined to give AT, KJ, pocket pairs, and other similar hands the opportunity to hit something on the turn. i think a typical paradise 20 mp would fold those kind of hands to 2 bets, and call for 1 bet.

it's either a call for value or a raise for value, but a raise for a knockout is simply awful poker.

[Ulysses]

astroglide is correct wrt my reasoning here. In both Party short and full games as well as my local B&M 15 or 20 games, I'm likely to get cold-called by much worse hands and aggro SBs can even 3-bet w/ hands like JJ to "find out" if I have a Queen or a flush draw. Even HU against a better hand I have plenty of equity in this pot (probably close to coin-flip) and in a 3-way pot I'm likely to have something like 40%. I'm happy to build a pot here.

If worse hands are definitely folding to a flop raise, I agree that calling is likely better. I'm happy to have AT call and catch a ten on the turn.

Pretty much the only worse hand I don't mind folding is something like Ah4c (where 4 makes a pair). And I'm pretty ambivalent wrt that hand sticking around.

[CrackerZack]

Ok, assuming these players are much better, which is your assumption, how many hands will he call one on the flop with that he won't call 2 with? Are these better players calling one with AJ? him calling with AK is a mistake either way, but I'd think he'd be as likely to call 2 as one with that. The only reason I would call is hoping MP raises so I can 3-bet or cap. You have top pair, and a big draw, build the pot or win the pot, whatever happens, great.

[astroglide]

i think a ton of people would call with a pocket pair, AT, KJ, etc and would fold for a raise.

[andyfox]

By just calling, you're giving the cold-caller 8:1 to take one off. If you raise, and the cold-caller calls, the original bettor is getting 11:1 to call the raise. With these odds, they can call with very little and still not be getting the worst of it. Just because someone has a worse hand doesn't necessarily mean you want them in.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
i think a ton of people would call with a pocket pair, AT, KJ, etc and would fold for a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP is definitely the type that would call with a middle pocket pair for one bet, but not for two.

And if he hits his set with a heart I'm going to get a lot of action from him.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

Thanks for all the replies.

But I'm still unclear on the best line of play here. As you can tell by my play, I'm on the side of Astroglide.

My Thoughts:

1. I might be ahead. If I'm ahead, I like the SB betting my hand for me and the MP player tagging along to try to hit his whatever.

2. I might be behind, but I have outs. Looking at my outs, I may have as many as 14 outs to improve. If SB has a better queen, then I have still 12 outs to improve.

3. If I'm behind and the MP stays in, I'm getting 2-1 odds on all money going in to the pot on an about 3-1 proposition. Given the existing pot size and the possibility of one or the other paying off a raise if I hit, calling down to improve is +EV.

Conversely, if I'm behind and I raise and drive out MP, then I'm getting 1-1 immediate odds on any additional money in the pot I'm only going to win one time in 3. Also, the next card is now costing me 2 or 3 times as much.

4. If I'm behind and I raise and get 3-bet by the SB, my draw has just become expensive, although I've inflated the pot to the point where the draw is appropriate.

5. I have a big draw that can make a lot of second best hands for my opponents. If the flush comes and it makes someone else 2 pair, a set, or a straight, I'm getting paid.

6. I have position on the SB. If he checks a street, I can make sure every street is bet.

7. In my mind, the MP is dead money. Let him keep putting chips in the pot.

Additional comments appreciated.

-Scott

[astroglide]

okay, just tell me what hands you want them to fold that they will actually fold. it is essentially impossible to get somebody to fold a better hand. what do you want to fold? what specific hand(s) are you scared of?

[Softrock]

Boy, maybe I have to start playing online. In the games I frequent (live 30-60, 40-80 northern CA and Las Vegas) I wouldn't even think of raising to build a pot. I agree if the game was such that this was the case then hell go ahead and raise.

[bicyclekick]

I'm gonna buck the trend here and completely agree with the reasons for calling.

[andyfox]

Let's say the bettor has Ah-Kd. (Not unreasonable as he raised pre-flop.) And let's say the guy behind has 7-6. The flop comes Qx-6h-3h. If I call the bet, the guy behind me's getting 8:1 and will win roughly one time in seven. If I raise, and the guy behind cold-calls, the guy in front is getting 11:1 and will win roughly one time in six. Plus there's a good chance I'll win no more money if they don't help on the turn, but I'll lose more if they do.

[astroglide]

QhTh wins 69.56% of the time, 7c6s wins 13.62% of the time, and AhKd wins 16.82% of the time. every bet they put in makes you money, so why do you want them to fold? you just named the flop and the holdings, and you're still a favorite in that exact example.

[andyfox]

If they both put in $20 to win $160, do I want them to put in 12.5% of the pot when they'll both win the pot more than 12.5% of the time?

[astroglide]

the hand doesn't stop on the flop. if there are 2 opponents and you will win more than 33.3% you should do what you can to get both of them to put bets in.

[andyfox]

You most likely lose the guy with the 7-6 when the turn doesn't help him. A heart puts you in the driver's seat, but Ah has a redraw against you and more likely you'll pay off on the river if another heart comes, but he won't if it doesn't.

"if there are 2 opponents and you will win more than 33.3% you should do what you can to get both of them to put bets in."

-Depends on how much is already in the pot and how much is likely to go in. What if the pot had been capped pre-flop?

[Coilean]

I'm 100% with andy on this one. Just because you have highly favorable equity on the money going in, that doesn't automatically mean you make the most money by having them stay in. Don't forget that they are calling single bets with a chance to take the whole pot from you, more commonly called pot odds. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

As an extreme example, pretend there's $1000 in this pot already. Would you want either of them to call $20 more with a 15% chance to win just because you win that $20 bet 85% of the time? Obviously, this hand is not so clear cut, but you still need to balance the equity you gain on the bets going in against the equity you already have in the pot.

Anyway, I say raise the flop, and collect your 2 or 4 or 6 bets from the SB with his 2 cards against you, rather than collect 1 or 3 or 5 bets apiece from 2 guys with their 4 cards against you. MP may even make a bad call of your raise anyway, or the SB might reraise, or maybe, maybe even both! Perhaps I'm just overly optimistic, but I usualy like to give my opponents opportunities to make big mistakes rather than small ones. And if they both fold, well, how tough can a game be where you can win the pot with a flop raise on a 2-flush board?

I would be more in favor of smoothcalling the flop if there were several opponents behind liable to call with few outs for one bet, but not for two, instead of just the one. After you add a few opponents, their outs start to collide and collectively they may only win 30-40% of the time while paying you better than 2:1 on your money. And even then, I'm still optimistic when it comes to trusting my opponents to coldcall raises with all sorts of crap on the flop, so I'm quite happy to oblige them.

[sleepyjoeyt]

There are two ways to win a hand: show the best hand at the end, or be the only one left standing.

If someone has QJ, are they going to call 2 bets cold on a somewhat weak Q? Or if someone has a king high flush draw, are they going to call 2 bets cold, when even if they hit they may not win?

I didn't say to knock out worse hands. I said to knock out ANYONE YOU CAN. You don't really know where you stand; as I stated earlier, this is a "fun hand", or a hand with some opportunities, but not a terribly strong hand.

I think you want to get this heads up. I think you want at least one of these to fold.

And, yes, I think there is a chance that a better hand may fold.

Just calling seems to be inviting people to hang around and beat you.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone has QJ, are they going to call 2 bets cold on a somewhat weak Q? Or if someone has a king high flush draw, are they going to call 2 bets cold, when even if they hit they may not win?

[/ QUOTE ]
QJ and KhXh will call 2 cold on this flop roughly 100% of the time online.

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't say to knock out worse hands. I said to knock out ANYONE YOU CAN.

[/ QUOTE ]
the only hands you knock out are worse hands. no better hand is going to fold.

[ QUOTE ]
And, yes, I think there is a chance that a better hand may fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
do you play much online 15/30 or 20/40?

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
You most likely lose the guy with the 7-6 when the turn doesn't help him. A heart puts you in the driver's seat, but Ah has a redraw against you and more likely you'll pay off on the river if another heart comes, but he won't if it doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]
a redraw isn't that scary, especially considering the possibility of him catching an ace or king on the river or running a straight. furthermore, i think you're seriously underestimating how often people call down scary boards with ace king.

[ QUOTE ]
Depends on how much is already in the pot and how much is likely to go in.

[/ QUOTE ]
we know exactly how much is in the pot. it doesn't depend, this is a specific hand.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget that they are calling single bets with a chance to take the whole pot from you

[/ QUOTE ]
it is most likely that they are calling single bets to open up the possibility of beating you, and then calling another single bet in an attempt to realize that possibility. furthermore, a heart will make a ton of those hands draw dead.

[ QUOTE ]
As an extreme example, pretend there's $1000 in this pot already. Would you want either of them to call $20 more with a 15% chance to win just because you win that $20 bet 85% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
why is this pedantic stuff even being mentioned? we know exactly how many opponents there are, exactly how much is in the pot, and exactly what our holding is. it's not theory.

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I'm just overly optimistic, but I usualy like to give my opponents opportunities to make big mistakes rather than small ones.

[/ QUOTE ]
and i think shutting out the possibility of a mistake, however small, is a mistake.

[andyfox]

Here's what you said: "if there are 2 opponents and you will win more than 33.3% you should do what you can to get both of them to put bets in."

I say it depends. In this case, the guys would be calling for 12.5% of the pot and have a greater than 12.5% chance of winning it.

There are also other reasons for raising, as well stated by Gabe in his post.

Perhaps the game I play in is a little tougher than the average on-line game. When I have Q-T and flop a queen, I'm happy when nobody else plays because if they do, they're either drawing properly or have me beat. I want to raise to make it wrong for them to take one off.

[astroglide]

i think much more often people will have a worse chance of winning (e.g. pocket pair, overcards) and can extend to still-losing hands on the turn that will pay off. either that or a better hand, and you have to stay in the pot anyway.

[Paluka]

I just wanted to go on record saying that calling here is a better play. I also wanted to point out that in almost every smaller discussion within this thread, astro has used excellent analysis while others have used questionable reasoning.
I'll give an example of some of the poor reasoning used to discuss this hand:

Some posters claimed that a hand with one pair on the flop might be in a position to win the pot 15% of the time, so if they call a flop bet getting 8 to 1 then it is a good call for them to make. It is not quite this simple, because they only win the hand 15% of the time assuming they make it to the river. The huge majority of the time these hands call the flop, they will have to fold to the turn bet anyway. So really they have to be getting proper odds to not only hit their hand on the turn, but for your re-draw to not get there on the river when they do hit.

[sleepyjoeyt]

It is highly unlikely that someone has me dominated. I could be up against a better queen, but I'd have flush outs. I may be up against a higher flush draw, but that person would be currently behind. I have what is currently a decent hand, but a hand that is extremely vulnerable. I don't want people staying in who can beat me. I'd like people drawing thin to stay in. I think we all agree with this so far.

The issue seems to be whether raising this hand will get people with a better queen or higher flush draw to fold. I say it may, others say no chance.

My thought is I want to do what I can to push people out of this pot. My only weapon is to raise. If they don't fold, then I most likely have many outs (if I'm not ahead already).


And, for the record, a quick glance at previous posts shows 10 in favor or raising and 5 for calling.

Sure, 10 of us could be wrong and you 5 could be right, but some of those in favor of raising here are pretty respected on this forum (myself excluded).

[Coilean]

[ QUOTE ]
why is this pedantic stuff even being mentioned?

[/ QUOTE ]
I was refuting this:[ QUOTE ]
the hand doesn't stop on the flop. if there are 2 opponents and you will win more than 33.3% you should do what you can to get both of them to put bets in.

[/ QUOTE ]
Taken as the blanket statement it sounds like, it's clearly wrong. If there's enough in the pot you sometimes make more if you get them to fold, end of story. You seemed to be getting carried away, so I just thought I would point out the obvious.

Anyway,
[ QUOTE ]
we know exactly how many opponents there are, exactly how much is in the pot, and exactly what our holding is. it's not theory.

[/ QUOTE ]

...point taken. So, there are 3.5BB already out there, and you seem to think a flop raise will knock out MP and cause SB to fold the turn, limiting your win to 4BB the 90-95% of the time the SB doesn't improve on the turn, for a grand total of something like 3.6-3.8BB.

If you instead smoothcall the flop and turn, you are hoping to win something like 4-5BB extra from these guys (putting your final profit at around 8BB), with maybe a 30% shot to lose 3.5BB more. This gets you up to 0.7(8BB) + 0.3(-3.5BB) = 4.55BB. So smoothcalling the flop seems like a winner here.

But what about the times MP folds the flop anyway, or he calls the flop raise, or you get extra action from the SB when he puts you on a flush draw and reraises the flop (or even check raises the turn), giving you a shot to cap the flop or call a flop reraise and raise the turn, maybe with MP trapped in the middle? These are all opportunities you lost by smoothcalling the flop, which I think are going to add up to more than the 0.5-1BB extra you were hoping for with a flop smoothcall. If these guys have played much poker, they know to lend less credence to flop action on a flushing board, so I don't see why you are worried about losing them so easily anyway (particularly the SB, who probably has some kind of hand). With only one potential flop caller behind you, I just don't see much of an overlay from a smoothcall, when you can raise the other guy and probably get close to the same payout with half the risk.

[King Yao]

I think its worth a raise here too. If we knew for a fact that the MP player had 76 and would fold with it to your raise, then I think the decision is close. But there is also a chance that he will call 2 bets, even with 76 (remember the description that the original poster gave on him, if the poster is correct, then this type of player may find an excuse to make a call with 76). As well, the MP may have A6s, in which case, a raise is necessary to make him pay for his 5 outs.

[astroglide]

But what about the times MP folds the flop anyway, or he calls the flop raise

those are highly contradictory "what ifs". i think it is inarguable that people are more likely to call 1 bet with a mediocre holding than they are with 2. without very specific player information, i could not assume he would cold-call here with something like a pocket pair, AT, or KJ.

or you get extra action from the SB when he puts you on a flush draw and reraises the flop (or even check raises the turn), giving you a shot to cap the flop or call a flop reraise and raise the turn, maybe with MP trapped in the middle?

again, this is a highly speculative situation. also, raising the turn after getting 3bet on the flop would probably be a bad play, and it is unlikely that ep would be cold-calling along on the turn with less than a better hand or better draw.

you suddenly seem motivated to get ep to cold-call his nuts off with some random holding for the sake of maximizing earn. you must understand, however, that barring very specific (ungiven) information it could not be assumed that he will do so nearly as much as he would call 1 bet, ergo a call is correct. i also don't get how you're behind andy wanting people to fold, and then going off on this tangent. if that is your case, not only do i think you are wrong, but you're saying the OPPOSITE of what andy is.

raise with the intention of getting a fold: awful. if anybody folds virtually any hand here, you have lost money.

raise with the intention of getting calls: disagree. you will knock people with worse hands out, you won't knock people with better hands out, and you will (at a minimum) slow down the SB regardless of what he has.

call: best. worse hands are more likely to call, and you put in less bets against better hands. you have a hand which must see the river.

[Coilean]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But what about the times MP folds the flop anyway, or he calls the flop raise

[/ QUOTE ]those are highly contradictory "what ifs".

[/ QUOTE ]Why does it matter if they are contradictory? We don't actually know what MP has, so those are both things that might happen. I was just pointing out cases where you probably would rather have raised the flop than smoothcalled.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
or you get extra action from the SB when he puts you on a flush draw and reraises the flop (or even check raises the turn), giving you a shot to cap the flop or call a flop reraise and raise the turn, maybe with MP trapped in the middle?

[/ QUOTE ]again, this is a highly speculative situation

[/ QUOTE ]And it's not speculative to assume that MP will call one flop bet but not two, and that you're going to win a small pot by raising, or a big one by smoothcalling?

[ QUOTE ]
i also don't get how you're behind andy wanting people to fold

[/ QUOTE ]Huh, where did I (or andy for that matter) say I wanted people to fold? I agreed with andy that you have to consider the size of the pot to know whether or not you want people to call or fold, which was why I provided that obvious and "pedantic" example you didn't seem to like.andy did say he would like to see them both to fold, so I stand corrected /images/graemlins/wink.gif

In general though, you often don't mind when people fold because your equity on the money in the pot is usually more than the money you can expect to win on future rounds. This pot isn't that big yet, so I agree it's more open to debate than usual.

[ QUOTE ]
you suddenly seem motivated to get ep to cold-call his nuts off with some random holding for the sake of maximizing earn.

[/ QUOTE ]I see bad players cold call flop raises with garbage all the time, it's not really that unusual.

[SoBeDude]

SB bet the turn when a blank fell, I called and MP folded. River was another blank. Bet, Call.

SB had KQ and took it down.

-Scott

[Coilean]

Well, you lost less than I would have. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[astroglide]

Why does it matter if they are contradictory? We don't actually know what MP has, so those are both things that might happen. I was just pointing out cases where you probably would rather have raised the flop than smoothcalled.

and i believe it is not a highly useful, as the odds somebody calling 1 bet with a mediocre hand are much greater on average than them calling 2 bets with it. i certainly believe that the time you get action from a worse hand will not make up for the times he folds.

And it's not speculative to assume that MP will call one flop bet but not two, and that you're going to win a small pot by raising, or a big one by smoothcalling?

no, it isn't, it's logical. we are dealing with probability here. people call 1 bet more often than 2, and people tend to slow down with worse hands when raised.

i think we are in agreement that wanting people to fold is bad poker, and still disagree on calling vs raising. i believe it is a clear call because of the higher chance of ep overcalling with a worse hand, the minimized risk against a better hand, and the fact that the sb won't be encouraged to slow down on the turn.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, you lost less than I would have. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

True in THIS isolated case. Doesn't mean I played it right. (Hence the post).

Although I still like the call for the reasons I outlined.

-Scott

[Coilean]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why does it matter if they are contradictory? We don't actually know what MP has, so those are both things that might happen. I was just pointing out cases where you probably would rather have raised the flop than smoothcalled.

[/ QUOTE ]and i believe it is not a highly useful, as the odds somebody calling 1 bet with a mediocre hand are much greater on average than them calling 2 bets with it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but it needs to be more than 3 times as likely to make smoothcalling average more money on the flop, since you also forgo my "speculative" coldcall and coldcall/reraise scenarios.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And it's not speculative to assume that MP will call one flop bet but not two, and that you're going to win a small pot by raising, or a big one by smoothcalling?

[/ QUOTE ]no, it isn't, it's logical. we are dealing with probability here. people call 1 bet more often than 2, and people tend to slow down with worse hands when raised.

[/ QUOTE ]
Speculation and logic are not opposites. In fact, logic is frequently used when speculating, at least if you wish to speculate well. So the fact that your cases are logical does not preclude them being speculative, and the fact that my cases are speculative does not mean they are not logical. In fact, this entire discussion is by definition speculative.

But enough hairsplitting for now /images/graemlins/tongue.gif, I think you are overlooking that a flop smoothcall obviously averages less money on the flop than a flop raise. A flop smoothcall is actually designed to make money on the turn, and if you raise there, you only got in 0.5BB more than by raising the flop (assuming MP always folds to the raise and always calls the 1 bet, which is clearly not always going to be the case), since if MP can't call the flop raise, your turn raise certainly shuts him out unless you actually let him catch a card to beat you. Even if the cases I brought up are infrequent, they can be hugely profitable, and I believe cover the 0.5BB plus some, while also exposing you to less risk (i.e. letting MP hit a winning card for cheap).

We do agree that a flop smoothcall mandates a turn raise, no? There's not many reasons to let 2 guys draw at you for 2BB when you could probably have one guy drawing at you for the same 2BB, right? I think you've worn me out, so go ahead and take the last word. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[SoBeDude]

But enough hairsplitting for now , I think you are overlooking that a flop smoothcall obviously averages less money on the flop than a flop raise.

I completely disagree here. We're not talking about some 'average' situation. Raising the flop in this situation will get the same amount of my opponents money in the pot (2 SBs total) as calling, but as a cost of me having to put TWICE as much of my own in.

I mentioned in my initial post I felt strongly that if I raise MP is going away. The fact that he folded the turn reinforces that for me.

So given I don't know where I am against the SB. How do I want to get 2 bets of my opponents money in the pot. by me putting in One or Two of my own? In other words, I'd rather be getting 2-1 on my call, than 1-1 on my raise. Especially since I feel IN THIS SITUATION, a raise is not significantly going to improve my chances of winning the pot.

Now this is a specific situation, so please don't go off on generalities about the value of raising.

-Scott

[astroglide]

Yes, but it needs to be more than 3 times as likely to make smoothcalling average more money on the flop, since you also forgo my "speculative" coldcall and coldcall/reraise scenarios.

i already addressed those. i do not believe they will occur often enough, especially considering how many hands may get strung along when they see the turn card that they otherwise wouldn't.

Speculation and logic are not opposites. In fact, logic is frequently used when speculating, at least if you wish to speculate well. So the fact that your cases are logical does not preclude them being speculative, and the fact that my cases are speculative does not mean they are not logical. In fact, this entire discussion is by definition speculative.

it is absolute fact that people in general call 1 bet eaiser than they call 2.

We do agree that a flop smoothcall mandates a turn raise, no?

no. i would also call the turn unimproved.

[SoBeDude]

it is absolute fact that people in general call 1 bet eaiser than they call 2.

By at least an order of magnitiude.

-Scott

[Coilean]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you are overlooking that a flop smoothcall obviously averages less money on the flop than a flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]I completely disagree here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't disagree, at least not with my intended meaning /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. If you smoothcall, you get only 1, and maybe zero (if MP folds, which he will probably do as often as he calls), more bets of your opponent's money into the pot. If you raise, you get at minimum 1 more bet (barring a bizarro SB fold to your flop raise) of your opponents' money, and possibly more if MP calls. So, mathematically speaking, the flop smoothcall must on average get less of your opponents' money into the pot on the flop than the flop raise, that is all I meant.

[Techin]

Raise the flop. You're hand is not strong enough to smooth call. Forget about keeping the other guy in. It's very likely that you do not have the best hand. Raising and bumping the other guy out increases your chances of winning a pot that was raised preflop. However, it is possible that the SB does not have a great hand and is just betting out because he was the preflop raiser. Isolating him is great. The limper may not even call the single bet, so you should get an extra bet out of the SB. Also, if you raise, it is very likely that the SB will check to you on the turn. You should bet here again to keep him from betting on the river. If you make your flush on the river, bet again; otherwise, check. You lose the least money if you don't make your flush this way, and still win a bet every round from the SB if you do. Keeping players in should be of more concern when there is 3 or 4 players to follow, and should only be done with strong hands or strong draws. It is also an important play on the river with a player to follow. Personally, I think it is best to put bets in on the flop and figure out where you stand. If I'm going to continue with top pair that has a kicker that is not great, I raise. This eliminates players and gives me information about their hands.

[Kenrick]

[ QUOTE ]

call: best. worse hands are more likely to call, and you put in less bets against better hands. you have a hand which must see the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Astroglide has given similar reasons I would have for a call. It's not a huge pot, so there's not a big concern with wanting to win it right there, and a call puts less of your money in against a better hand while letting the poor-playing middle limper keep on limping and also possibly help "protect the pot."

I think the flush draw makes calling a very easy decision. One of the two might be on a lesser flush draw and will raise or call a raise on the river if it gets there, and if not, you still have a pair of queens with a marginal kicker to show down. Someone might be betting into me with a better hand, and no way am I laying my hand down, but they also might bluff the whole way, so a call lets them keep trying. If I'm not already beat and not raising lets someone catch an ace or a king for their overcards or a heart for a bigger flush, oh well.

Or maybe I just go for overcalls too much.