Boy Named Sue

[1800GAMBLER]

Party's $100.

I get 55 in LP and limp after 4 limpers.

Flop comes:

A T 5 raindow

MP bets $4, MP+1 calls $4. Then it's on you. With a lot of players behind you. You check pattern mapper and find out the next card is going to be an offsuit jack. Do you call or raise now?

Remember, all players play poorly and too loose.

[SossMan]

Well, let's see...you said it was Party 100, right. I'll assume it was table # 1125816123

According to my map (v5.32...v5.60 is on its way, damn UPS)
an offsuit jack is, indeed, the next card (with a confidence predition level of 98%)

I would make it about 2x Pot. That should be enough to charge them to draw to the runner-runner gutshot that's coming.

[gavrilo]

Remember, all players play poorly and too loose.

I would go ahead and raise now.

[Ulysses]

I agree. I'd raise an amount such that it makes it easier for me to get all the money in on the turn.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Soss,

According to my pattern map -- v5.60, I got it by FedEx -- that runner-runner gutshot only happens on even-numbered dates. On odd-numbered dates, the player in seat seven will river quads. Still, I think it's better to bet the turn here, because the bot in seat two will fold and that's who you really want out of this pot....

Cris

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
because the bot in seat two will fold and that's who you really want out of this pot....


[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh...the WinHoldEm Bot in seat two w/ the Pocket Aces, right....that's why I need v5.60..it can detect the manufacturer of the bot and it's playing characteristics. Ohhhhh, i can see my bank account growing now....mmmm, "I think I'll have the steak AND the lobster, sir".

[cornell2005]

alright well jay i was gonna let you respond first because its your post and i know we at least partially agree on this point, but you havnt responded so heres why i think its a call everytime and not a raise

There are many hands that you want to keep in for the turn, because they will be helped by the jack and will be likely to bet into you or pay you off. These hands will increase the implied pots odds for you, but will still put them behind your set.

anotherinteresting question would be whether to check or bet if you were out of position after the flop. but since you cant really put anyone on any types of hands preflop it wouldnt be as interesting
There are 2 hands that will make a hand that will jump ahead of yours when the jack hits. JJ and QK. Of these, the QK will not fold no matter what your betting is on the flop, so you might as well ignore that option here. The JJ will likely fold to a reasonable bet, but JJ is unlikely here because there no preflop raises.
So essentially you are letting a whole bunch of hands catch up and not really risking anything at all by calling and keeping everyone confident/in the pot.

[SilentKnight]

Off topic somewhat but I'm very curious....what are you guys talking about v5.32 and 5.6 and PREDICTING the next card...??

[1800GAMBLER]

Just a long overdone joke that party poker can be hacked to predict cards. It can't. The reason for my post is i wanted to know what people would do if they knew the next card was an off suit jack (i didn't in the hand, it fell on the turn and i wondered how i would have played it if i knew that was the card).

Any comments?

[CCass]

I play Party $50 NL most of the time, but I assume the same fish swim in the $100 game. If either of your opponents have an A (and a lot of folks play any A), they will probably stay in if you raise to about $10. I don't think you run anyone off by raising, so I raise (even if the pattern map tells me an off-suit J is coming).