POLL: Where do you make your money?

[ElSapo]

Inspired by a comment from yesterday. On what street do your decisions in low-limit hold'em games make you the most money?

[sfer]

I think on LL Party it's not close. A huge chuck of my profit comes from folding trash that most Partyers play preflop and forcing them to call 2 or 3 to see a flop when I'm starting way ahead.

[Brian]

Hi ElSapo,

Since I play mainly lower limits, a lot of my money definitely comes from pre-Flop. The next would be the Flop, since people seem to be willing to take one off with any two every time, and that adds up real fast.

-Brian

[J.R.]

Pre-flop and the river. I love the calls with busted pair draws on the river. Usually my opponents have some equity on the flop and turn.

[Jezebel]

I'm suprised that the turn is ranked as low as it is. The turn is where the hand really comes together. It is also the most difficult street to play correctly. In holdem, it is the first street where the limit doubles and you have enough info to put your opponents on a reliable range of hands. Decisions made on the turn are usually the most important because if you commit on the turn you most likely also commit to the river. In my opinion the turn IS post flop play and post flop play is where the money is made.

[CrackerZack]

Most people should say pre-flop and most are right.

[WDC]

I think pre-flop is right if you are calculating money not wasted on trash. If yiou are talking about where your money comes from when you are in a hand and playing it correctly, then I think the turn is your easy answer.

[BugsBunny]

I think it's the flop. Playing preflop correctly will give you a foundation - but the flop is where you determine whether or not you should continue and invest more moeny. The preflop gem may become worthless once it sees the flop. Good preflop decisions combined with bad flop decisions = losing player (or maybe break-even against LL idiots).

How often do you call or raise preflop just to fold on the flop? That's a flop decision. It's a matter of skill as well. The better you are playing the flop and beyond the less important your preflop decisions become (although they never reach the point of being unimportant - playing any 2 is still a losing proposition no matter how good you are postflop, unless you're opponents are also pretty much playing any 2. In which case I think you could make money. But you'd still make more by being selective preflop).

The hand that's ahead at the flop usually wins, so you better play correctly on the flop.

Edit: Most of your profit probably comes from the turn and river, since that's where the bigger bets come into play - but the flop is where you have to decide whether or not you play the rest of the hand *and* how you want to play the rest of the hand. .

[offTopic]

E) Buy-in bonus...otherwise I wouldn't make any money at all.

[J.R.]

I agree that most make a "commit" decision on the turn, but there is often a good deal of equity in the turn call while on the river they are just pissing it away even though the pot odds are often very favorable. The money is made in the horrible river calls, but the decision to make that call arose on the turn. Either way, that's not my decision, but the decision of my opponent(s).

I dunno, I had a lot of success getting my thin river bets called last night and my decision to make thin river value bets probably makes me the most, as others make the easy turn and flop bets but often lack the courage to get full value for their hands. I also think I make fewer bad calls on the river than my opponents, while on the turn there is often some equity in the loose calls made by my opponents so even when they call incorrectly, they aren't throwing away full bets.

On the flop there are often odds (both pot and implied) in loose LL games to make some thin calls, so I don't think most of the money is gained there and most of the bets (pumping draws and betting big hands) are fairly routine.

But preflop decisions are clearly the biggest +EV decision I make.

[LetsRock]

I voted Flop.

While preflop decisions are very important, they're pretty much standard no brainer moves for me. I very seldom have tough decisions preflop - preflop play for me is almost automatic. It's gotten to the point that it's not even a decision anymore - it's just second nature.

The flop is where I have to start "playing" and therefore make decisions. Determining weather your cards will work with the flop is a critical decision and continuing in a hand that has little hope is a very costly mistake.

Sure, the turn and river are the most expensive streets, but I won't be on those streets if I don't like my chances on the flop. Proper flop play will save you the most "mistake" money of any of the streets.

[ElSapo]

This poll actually brought up more questions than I thougt it would. Perhaps there should actually be a secondary poll, on which street do your opponents lose the most money?

Is it possible this is different from where we make the most? I'd assume so, from a theoretical standpoint.

Most of our pre-flop decisions are automatic, but our low limit opponents continually calling raises with AT, KJ and worse are losing money there. But often this makes pots bigger and hence their tendancy to call on the flop more correct. Perhaps our opponents are losing a lot pre-flop and on the turn, while we make our money on the flop?

As for the river, those decisions are usually pretty simple as well. I don't see LL opponents laying down the best hand often, and they may often be right to call looking at the size of the pot. Same goes for better players, with exception going to occasionally laying down the best hand.


El Sapo

[aas]

I make most of my money on my flop decisions. Pre-flop play is automatic.

I agree that my opponents loose most of their money before the flop since I play mostly .5/1 and 1/2, and they limp in with anything. This might be different in highier limits though.

aas.

[MaxPower]

I suppose this was inspired by my comment that you make most of your money on the flop.

This is based on my belief that most of your winnings in a low limit game are based on the mistakes that your opponents make. We don't win because we are great players (we are not), we win because our opponents are bad players.

Even in a low-limit game most of your profits are made by playing well post-flop.

In my opinion, most players misplay the flop more than any other street post-flop. When they misplay the flop, it usually means a number of things: They don't win enough with their good hands, they lose too much with their bad hands, there hands do no hold-up as much as they should. Their errors on the flop lead to compounding errors on the later streets.

If you ever find yourself sitting next to someone who exposes his cards, take a look at some of the flop plays he makes and you will be astounded.

I just dug-up a post from the archives that relates to how much profit comes from various skills. I'm sure they were referring to really soft low-limit games, but it is interesting nonetheless.

See here (http://www.twoplustwo.com/digests/nov97_msg.html#1050)

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
If you ever find yourself sitting next to someone who exposes his cards, take a look at some of the flop plays he makes and you will be astounded.

[/ QUOTE ]

After sitting at a table for a while where 50-60% saw the flop, I did a little experiment. I took a deck of cards and dealt out rounds of ten hands of hold'em. What I'd see was a whole lot of crap and not anywhere near 50-60% playable hands. It is amazing, you're right.

[MaxPower]

I realize that that last post was a little confusing. I'm a little under the weather.

Your profit comes from your opponents mistakes. Yes, your opponents play too many hands pre-flop, but you do not profit from most of those errors because you are not in the hand. You only profit from their mistakes when you play a hand. They set themselves up for making post-flop mistakes by constantly coming in with hands weaker than yours (so you can't really seperate the flop and pre-flop cleanly).

The fact is that even a crap hand can become huge favorite after the flop and a good hand can become a huge underdog. Poor players almost never capatalize on the former and almost never recognize the latter.

This is just my opinion based on years of play and my current understanding of poker. I could be way off.

[MaxPower]

I've done the same and almost every hand is not won by the best pre-flop hand.

[Jezebel]

The only reason I would say that the flop is not where the most money is made is that the bet is usually so small in comparision to the size of the pot. Many times it is correct to peal a card on the flop if you catch even the smallest piece of the flop. In these cases, your opponents are rarely making huge mistakes. Even bad players will typically fold on the flop when it totally misses them. Chasing middle and bottom pairs seem to be their demise, but its usually only a small mistake to chase these type hands on the flop for one small bet.

On the other hand, the turn is where the rubber meets the road. Hands that were marginal on the flop are most likely sucking big wind if they didn't hit on the turn. Hands like middle pair, overcards or gutshot draws usually need to be tossed on the turn, but poor players consistently want to see the river before they give it up, and this is where they consistently give you their money. Also made hands on the turn can be more difficult to play. You can be put in a real bind when you bet your decent hand on the turn such as TPTK and it gets raised. Calling down is a two BB committment that must be made on the turn.

There are also no clear cut guidelines for playing the turn. On the flop you can usually play by a "fit or fold" philosophy most of the time. Play on the turn is very dependant on your read of your opponent, thus few clear cut rules of thumb. Since we all agree that most money is made in poker due to making better decisions and I think I have made a case that the most important decisions are usually on the turn, I would submit that the turn is where the money is made. /images/graemlins/grin.gif