QQ flops JJ, how do you proceed?

[SpaceAce]

PartyPoker $2/$4.

I get QQ under the gun and raise. I get a bunch of callers (surprise) and the flop is JJX. The blinds check, I bet, a few people call and a couple fold. The turn is a blank, the big blind checks, I bet, there's on caller and the big blind check-raises me. How do you proceed from here?

SpaceAce

[Guido]

Depending on the pot odds I might call my 2 outer (about 20:1 because of the implied odds), else I will fold. The pot is protected so you can lay it down when the pot isn't big enough IMO.

Guido

[VarlosZ]

Depending on exactly how many called before and on the flop, I figure you'd be getting roughly 11.5-1 from the pot to call the raise. If we assume that the third player will fold after you call, and that you will call a river bet, you are probably getting implied of odds of about 5 or 6 to 1.

So what do you figure the odds to be that he'd represent trips or better with less than you're QQ? I've been at some PP $2-$4 tables where this was a good call, others where I'd fold it. I think it depends.

[Izverg04]

From your post it appears there are 12 or 13 BB in the pot now, let's say 13 BB after the lp player calls. Most of your winning chances come from catching the Queen on the river. If you do, you win about 16 BB. You have only 1:22 to catch the third Queen, however if there is only ~1.5% chance that your QQ is still good, that is the big blind is bluffing and the late caller is a moron, you have an easy call in my opinion against almost any opponent.

If you want to call on the river if the Q doesn't fall, you'll need ~1:15 odds that your opponents are bluffing. If your opponents are maniacal, you still probably have a call.

To summarize, easy call on the turn, go by your player notes on the river.

[Daggs911]

Assuming you don't know anything about the BB, I think you have to call down.

There's roughly 10.5 BBs in the pot at the point of the check-raise. You have to call two more bets to win 11.5 BBs. Is there a 1 in 5.5 chance you have him beat? At 2-4, I would say most likely yes.

However, if the MP caller 3bets behind your call, you probably can safely fold for even one more bet.

Just my two cents.

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
To summarize, easy call on the turn, go by your player notes on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]
This makes no sense to me. If you have notes you should look at them on the turn, not the river IMO. If he is a maniac I might call but I don't think this is an easy turn call, normally this is an easy fold IMO. Not many people C/R an EP PFRer, especially not when there are more players in. Furthermore most players C/R the turn with trips so all these things combined make it an easy fold for me.

Guido

[Guido]

Am I the only one who would folds this? /images/graemlins/confused.gif
Only if he's a maniac this looks like a clear fold to me...
You raised PF, you bet the flop and turn and he check-raises you, I would say you have the best hand less than 5% of the time (not 20%), so fold. I think about 90% of the players C/R trips on the turn (although that's wrong IMO) which makes it an easy fold for me. Even if you call you might lose to a river A or K... Clear fold IMO.

Guido

[Schmed]

I think this is one of those player dependant things. It's online and I have a hard time putting reads on people online so really you're reading bets and money in the pot. You really didn't say how many people are in the pot and this being party I am apt to go in to check and call mode because there is a chance that our hero has whatever the X was or whatever the turn was.

I really want to lay this down but I have a real hard time laying this down. I had a hand a couple of days ago I posted with AA that had similar action.....I was beat in 2 places.... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

My guess is unless the pot is laying 20-1 or the C/Raiser is a guy who is aggressive then this is probably a lay down...a tough one though.....I probably stupidly pay off here because online I have a hard time believing people.......

[colgin]

Fold. The check-raise from the BB was done only to put more money in the pot, not to thin the field. (Putting aside the fact that I can't ever remember a Party $2/4 player making a move with nothing with a turn C/R, I really can't imagine this being a bluff C/R with multiple players still in the pot.) Accordingly, I think you are beat here and would be drawing thin (and possibly dead). BB has either slowplayed trip Jacks, or the "blank" on the turn filled him up. I don't think the pot is big enough to draw to your possible two outs so I think you should fold here.

Colgin

[The Dude]

Why did you bet the turn? Did you not smell this check-raise coming from a mile away? On the turn, if it checks through, fine. Giving free cards to some draws typically doesn't cost you nearly as much as being check-raised by a J.

The exception to this is when you are sure a check-raise means a J. Then you have no problem laying the hand down. If you're committed to calling down a check-raise, you cannot bet the turn.

BTW, the time to think about this is on the flop. Before you bet the flop, know how you're going to play the hand out. Your hand may very well be good, but you're too far behind any J to play it so aggressively.

I would have decided to bet the flop and call a single raise behind me. Then I would have checked the turn, planning on calling for one - but not two - BB. Check-call the river unimproved.

An A or a K or a flush card might change my plans mid-hand, but the point is to think about future action BEFORE you start betting. You can't simply bet because your hand is good, then consider what to do AFTER being raised.

A good rule of thumb is: only bet when you know what to do if raised. If you have an easy fold or an easy call, usually it's safe to bet. If getting raised puts you in a real bind, that means you almost surely should have checked through.

[37offsuit]

I repop him here.

[Izverg04]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who would folds this? /images/graemlins/confused.gif
Only if he's a maniac this looks like a clear fold to me...

[/ QUOTE ]
You probably mean "clear call" here?

[ QUOTE ]
You raised PF, you bet the flop and turn and he check-raises you, I would say you have the best hand less than 5% of the time (not 20%), so fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your algebra is way off. If you believe that here you have the best hand 2% of the time, then fold on the river but not when you have 2 outs (additional 4.35%) in the pot that is now absolutely huge. You can fold on the turn if you are 100% sure or when you are 99% sure that you are against a J or a higher pair, but not when you are only 98% sure. Do you know any opponent that well to make this kind of fold?

[Trix]

Muck, this is SOP for them with a J, the pot isnt big enough to call for your 2 outer and I dont think its a bluff often enough to pay 2 big bets in a protected pot to get a showdown.

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
You probably mean "clear call" here?

[/ QUOTE ]
No fold

[ QUOTE ]
Your algebra is way off.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry about my English but it isn't my native language.

[ QUOTE ]
If you believe that here you have the best hand 2% of the time, then fold on the river but not when you have 2 outs (additional 4.35%) in the pot that is now absolutely huge.

[/ QUOTE ]
The pot isn't big enough to justify a call IMO. You need at least 18BB, not 13BB.

[ QUOTE ]
You can fold on the turn if you are 100% sure or when you are 99% sure that you are against a J or a higher pair, but not when you are only 98% sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see understand your logic. Let's suppose you are right and there a 2% chance that you have the best hand and 98% chance that you don't have the best hand. Let's asume the river is a blank and that you call the river too. Say there are 13BB in the pot on the turn and you win 3 more on the turn and river (1+2). Your EV is 0.02*16-0.98*2=-1.64. So you need a lot more than 2% to make this call right, at least 14%. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you know any opponent that well to make this kind of call?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I would fold the turn. You said it was an easy call, I didn't but when you call the turn you have to call the river. But there are a lot more cards that you don't want to see on the river than you do. Only a Q will probably help you if you're behind and when you're not you don't want to see a A or K. When you believe the big blind doesn't have a J on the turn it doesn't make sense to fold on the river. BTW when you don't think he has a J you should raise...

Guido

[sfer]

If the BB checkraises the flop I 3-bet. On the turn it stinks of trips so I fold almost all of the time. If the BB is a habitual bluffer, I think about calling, but still probably fold.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
I repop him here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you reasonably put BB on that Hero is ahead of here?

[BIGRED]

[colgin]

If someone bets into you and there are one or more players to act behind you, the pot is considered to be protected against a bluff since you can reasonably expect at least one other person to call and the mere presence of several other players in the hand tends to reduce bluffing. If you think you can only beat a bluff you should fold in these situations. In contrast, heads up on the river, you need to consider the likelihood that your opponent is bluffing in determining whether to call a bet (assuming you think you can only beat a bluff).

[JARID]

i second colgin's motion. heads up or with two other players i don't mind when the board pairs, but here, someone is bound to have a j and it looks like it is the bb.

[turnipmonster]

fold. I would check the turn and probably pay off one bet on the river.

--turnipmonster

[Izverg04]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see understand your logic. Let's suppose you are right and there a 2% chance that you have the best hand and 98% chance that you don't have the best hand. Let's asume the river is a blank and that you call the river too. Say there are 13BB in the pot on the turn and you win 3 more on the turn and river (1+2). Your EV is 0.02*16-0.98*2=-1.64. So you need a lot more than 2% to make this call right, at least 14%. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure. For some reason you ignore that you have 2 outs. If you are dead-set on calling the river, then your EV is ~(X+1/23)*16-2(1-X-1/23), where 1/23 is the chance of catching Q, and X is the chance that your hand will win unimproved. Solving EV>0 gives you X>6.8%. If you plan to fold to the river bet, combined probability that your hand will win unimproved and that the hand will be checked on the river has to be at least 1.5%.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW when you don't think he has a J you should raise...

[/ QUOTE ]
It should have been clear that I think BB has a J.

[Guido]

To make sure if I understand you correctly...

The pot odds you need for catching a Q on the river are 1/22. He probably gets 13:1 on the turn call and the implied odds are probably 16:1. Without taking a bluff into account the EV is 1/23*16-2*22/23=-1.22 (you fold when you don't hit your Q because you think you're behind). So when we only look at the pot odds it's a clear fold.

Now suppose he might be bluffing, this has to compensate the -EV when we look at the pot odds. X=chance you win unimproved. X*16-(1-X)*2=+1.22 solving this gives an X of 17.8%. So what do I do wrong? I still haven't figured out where the 1.5% comes from...

[ QUOTE ]
It should have been clear that I think BB has a J.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, that wasn't clear to me. So then we agree that a bluff should compensate the -EV when we look at the pot odds. According to my calculations I don't think you will win in 17.8 times out of a 100. But my calculations might be wrong.

Guido

[sthief09]

People are giving all these numbers and stuff, but unless you have a good read on the guy saying otherwise, I think it's an easy calldown.

[SpaceAce]

Hi, everyone. Thanks for all the replies. Too many of you responded for me to address each one individually but I have one comment for TheDude: This is PartyPoker $2/$4 so I think betting both the flop and turn is correct. Those bobos will be chasing without a Jack often enough for me to not fear the check-raise. I just wondered whether the hand was even worth a call down once the check-raise came a-knocking.

SpaceAce

[Izverg04]

[ QUOTE ]
Without taking a bluff into account the EV is 1/23*16-2*22/23=-1.22 (you fold when you don't hit your Q because you think you're behind). So when we only look at the pot odds it's a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here you went wrong. You lose only 1 BB, so it should be 1/23*16-1*22/23=-0.26 BB. 1.5% comes from solving (X+1/23)*16-1*(1-X-1/23)>0.

[Guido]

Lol, that's what I innitially did but then I looked at your equation and then I changed it because you typed a 2 instead of a 1. Should have seen it was a typo or a mistake.

Guido