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View Full Version : KQo - implied odds to call?


Rocco
03-16-2004, 06:27 AM
Stats:
- NL $30 tourney
- Blinds are 25/50
- My stack is 730 (below average)
- Opponent-to-be has 1565 (second largest stack)
- 7 players at the table (last hand before break-up)

I'm dealt K /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif in LP. One caller to me and i limp. Button raises 75 to 100 and BB pushes another 50 in. EP limper and I call.

Flop: (4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif)
Checked around to Button who bets 100 (in a 425 pot), BB calls and EP folds. Now, what to do? I have to put 100 in a 625 pot. Clearly, I don't have sufficient pot odds to make the call, but what about implied odds? I have an inside straight draw and a runner-runner flush draw...

Anyway, I called and...

Turn: (K /images/graemlins/heart.gif)
Again, we check around to Button who puts 200 in. BB folds and we're heads-up. At this point, I find it much easier to make the call since I now have a nut four-flush as well as a pair of kings. I figure I could have him beat already, QQ or JJ is possible hands.

River: (9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif)
Bingo! Nuts! I push immediately and he calls my all-in. Button flipped AKo and had me beat all the way to the river. So, I turned into chip leader at the table.

The question is about my flop call, is it a clear one, a no-no or something I should do occasionally?

curmudgeon
03-16-2004, 01:25 PM
Considering your small stack, calling with an inside straight draw is quite desperate. You really can't give any value to a backdoor flush until you hit it on the turn (figure the odds for yourself).
No question in my mind that someone has the ace.

Call this flop rarely, as you need to get very lucky to win.
Of course, when you do make your hand you win big. But you just won't make it that often.

Good way to put someone else on tilt! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Greg (FossilMan)
03-16-2004, 03:41 PM
It's about 11:1 against hitting a gutshot with 1 card. And of course you can't do the math for 2 cards, because it is assumed that he will usually bet the turn, and you'll have to fold. You're getting slightly better than 6:1 now, but you've only got about T500 more in your stack after you call. Thus, even if we assume you get him to put all the chips in on the turn every time you hit, and also that he never draws out on you after that, you're still barely getting above 11:1 total odds, and so you're barely making a +EV play. Since some of our assumptions (that he'll never draw out on you) won't pan out, this turns what might have been a slightly +EV play into a pretty clear -EV play.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Al_Capone_Junior
03-16-2004, 08:57 PM
if your stack were considerably larger, yes, there's enough implied odds here to call. However, in tournaments you don't ALWAYS want to take +EV plays if they cost you a bunch of your stack and don't pan out very often. That said, and given your stack size, it's a clear fold here.

al