To raise or not to raise...

[Louie Landale]

Its a weak-tight-predictable game and I'm rammin' and Jammin' and I'm the live guy. Actually, I'm being real sensible about it and only APPEAR to be the live guy: I know to stop when I get a play.

Anyway, I raise in late position with AQ and the little-old-man 3-bets from the blind, and I don't like it but call heads up. Flop is AQ8. Villan bets and I call. Turn is 8. Villian bets...

Now in spite of my image Villian is sure to have a premium hand since he HAS only raised once and did raise earlier with AQ or TT. He's unlikely to have JJ since he's sure to check that on the turn, and he may even check KK.

All-in-all I think I'm supposed to be paranoid and just call figuring to invest one bet on the river.

- Louie

[webiggy]

I'm guessing AK here and would surely raise. If he had pocket Aces, Queens or 8s, then you got beat by a better hand and tip your cap; but given that he's a tremendous underdog to have either of these hands go nuts and hope for the best.

Also consider that if you've been pushing players around, he may have decided to challenge you with a real hand.

[spamuell]

If he's really that tight and predictable, call the turn, raise the river and fold to a 3-bet.

[Guido]

I would raise the flop and even cap it, if he bets out on the turn again I would call him down. If you just call the flop I would raise the turn and call him down if he 3-bets.

Guido

[Chris Daddy Cool]

you're only losing to AA or QQ here, almost imposible to have 88. I'd smoothcall the flop and raise that turn. If he 3bets you, just call him down.
What did he have? I'm guessing AK

[el_grande]

Hindsight is 20/20, but I think you need to decide how to play this guy before it happens.

Either you completely respect his raises from the blind and therefore lay down AQ preflop OR you don't and freely play into him.

You flopped top two pair and are paraniod about AA or QQ. Sounds like you think your preflop decision was wrong. Since the real answer is so dependent on the opponent, you are the best judge and from your post it seems like you should have mucked it PF.

[Trix]

He can hold AA-QQ,AK ?
If so, there is 6 ways to hold KK, 6 AK, 1 AA, 1 QQ, that will make it 12:2 or 6:2(if no KK either) that you are ahead.
Raise that turn, dont let him draw out on you cheap.

[sfer]

I like the logic, but wouldn't it then be better to raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet, saving yourself 1 BB when you're wrong and getting the same when you're right (assuming that even rocks call down with AK/KK).

[brian0729]

Louie,

I think he could play AK or AQ like this as well as AA-QQ and I call down. Does he think your stealing? If so he might play a little wider range of hands.

I dont like a turn raise because you may very slow him down or get him to fold KK and you could possibly get three bet and Im not ready to give my cards up yet on this one. If he has QQ you have outs.

[Louie Landale]

Great Post; this is how folks are SUPPOSED to be thinking instead of always "what do I do in this situation".

But there are more options than laying it down or playing it freely against him. My wild image will sure induce him to call me down (although I don't think it will induce him to raise or bet more often). Thus, calling the 3-bet with AQ (as a clear underdog but getting 6:1) has a lot of merit since he's sure to pay me off when I get there. With this in mind I can, and did, forsee future action featuring no raises on later streets: I'd keep calling if I made something and bet if he checked. The fact that I'm unlikely to get into a situation where I want to raise IS a reason to fold PF, but it is by no means a compelling one.

BTW, I'm paranoid about a big set less because its not very likely (compared to KK, JJ, or AK) but more because he keeps betting: He's not going to bet KK on the turn (and if he does then I still want to call, hehehe). yes, there are 8 AKs left and only 3 big sets/quads out and I think I should have taken that into consideration.

Now even if I CAN lay it down for a raise I think I'm better off calling in order to induce an extra river bet from him (but that conflicts with my current image).

Lots of things to be thinking about on this one other than "top two pair then raise".

- Louie

[Louie Landale]

Well, I DID raise and pay off his Qs Full. The other curious thing is that a 3rd 8 came on the river and for some reason I thought I'd outdrawn his QsFull (but I just called).

So I made 2 mistakes: raising not knowing if I can lay it down and misreading the board at the end.

- Louie