Counterfeit straight draw in a big pot...

[blackaces13]

Borgata 2/4. Typical ultra-loose/ultra-passive that anyone who has been there knows what I'm talking about.

I get TJo in the CO, all except 1 MP player who folds call to me and I call as well. Button calls, SB completes, BB checks. 9 to the flop:

[K-Q-4] rainbow (9 SBs) /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Checked to MP who bets, another MP calls and I raise. Folded to the BB (who I KNOW respects my raises because he's not all that bad after the flop and I've CR'ed him a lot with strong hands) who calls as well which I take note of. 4 to the turn:

[K-Q-4] J (8.5 BB's-rake=7.75 BB's) /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Now I'm counterfeited and I also read this card as hitting the BB hard. He sat up straighter, placed his bet out inconspicuously and stared straight ahead. Both MP players call making 10.5 BB's on the pot excluding the $4 rake.

So what's my play here? Before I post what I did (which I suspect many will HATE) I'd like to hear what others think I should have done here and more importantly why. This hand has a lot going on and I think there are MANY factors to consider before acting. Fire away people.

[blackaces13]

.

[Yeknom58]

I'd call because there is no way to win the pot right now with a raise. Also if your read is correct you might get 3 bet. I'm sure as hell not folding because I'm thinking any 9 or A gives me at least half a winner.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure as hell not folding because I'm thinking any 9 or A gives me at least half a winner

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's exactly it. Is it worth drawing to 8 and quite possibly, make that very possibly drawing to 4 outs for 1/2 or LESS of a 10.5 BB pot? I'm looking at winning 6 bets here and I may well have 4 outs.

[BaronVonCP]

Only fold if you are 100% sure he has AT

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
Only fold if you are 100% sure he has AT

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd need a Sklansky type mind to break down the exact mathematic probablities needed to warrant a call. However, I am certain that the % of times you need to think a guy is holding AT does NOT need to be 100 for a fold to be correct. I'm drawing at half the pot, however a single J may allow me to scoop. A nine may get me 6 bets, 3 bets, 12 bets or no bets. As I said there's a lot going on here and I need someone to really break down the odds here in a detailed way. I would but, ...umm, I'm not smart enough.

[Trix]

You should muck preflop, since you will often be dominated with that many passive limpers and you cant play it for the straight alone.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
You should muck preflop, since you will often be dominated with that many passive limpers and you cant play it for the straight alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna have to repectfully and COMPLETELY disagree with you there. If I can limp in with JT against 8 or 9 opponents and have virtually no fear a raise behind me I'm doing it everytime without hesitation. I think most players would agree with me on this one but if not I'd like to hear about it.

[brian0729]

Hi blackaces13,

I to think you should fold this preflop, this is junk in a multiway pot. Your finding out why in this hand.

I would call the turn. I think the fact that the jacks may give you the winner as well, makes this is a call. I would not put him on AT right away. Could he play T9 this way as well? Also did the J complete the rainbow or put two of a suit up there?