Collusion attempt?

[TimM]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB bets, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB bets, Hero raises, BB bets $8.5 (All-In), Hero calls.

BB shows Qd Qc (one pair, queens).
Hero shows Td Jd (two pair, jacks and tens).

After the hand, BB left immediately, I said "That was odd", and then UTG left. These two also played the same number of hands that session (10), so they probably sat down together too. Is there any other way UTG's play (raising and capping then folding an almost raggy flop) makes sense? Does it even make sense as a collusion?

[Joe Tall]

Fold preflop.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[TimM]

No way, I saw this guy raise 87o earier.

I also expected the call would bring in both blinds.

[Tosh]

Joe's right, easy preflop muck.

[mosch]

Had this been collusion, they would've likely kept re-raising you, the way they did pre-flop, on every street, thinking that their queens were going to be good.

You called two bets cold pre-flop here, twice. Mucking in that situation will save you money.

[TimM]

I considered mucking it, but the UTG player had played 10 hands up to that point, and raised 4 of them. One of these was 87o from early position, so, even with only 10 hands seen, we are probably looking at a very loose raiser with no regard for position.

It was very unusual for the whole table to fold to the button like that, and, based on the way the table was going, I expected my cold call to give me a 4 way pot for 2 small bets, with the blinds probably holding garbage hands.

It's hindsight to say I should muck rather than call the first raise because it's going to cost me two more bets to see the flop.

It didn't quite go as planned, but after the cap I figured I'd at least see the flop for over 5 to 1 plus big implied odds if the flop comes exactly as I'd like, and by that I mean better than the flop I actualy got.

[Tosh]

Its nothing to do with hindsight. The cold call is wrong whether it was capped or not.

[TimM]

I gave you my logic, where's yours? I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but just saying a play is wrong over and over is not very helpful. Of course you have every right not to be helpful if you choose.

100% of the time I muck in this situation against a player with normal or even a little bit loose raising standards, or one I have no read on at all. I'm saying this is an exception based on the read of the table and the player. Looking at my Poker Tracker I see that in 2004 I cold called pre-flop 61 times out of over 8000 hands. Most of these are probably pocket pairs and bigger suited connectors with many cold callers before me, so I think I understand that cold calling is almost always wrong and why and when to make an exception.

Now in this case I could certainly be wrong in that the odds of the flop hitting aren't good enough, or that I won't get paid off enough if I do hit, or I misread UTG and the blinds, or whatever. This is fine, but you only get 30 seconds and I used logic and intuition and came up with the play I felt was worth making at the time. I won't defend the play based on the result; certainly I was lucky against the BB's Q's, but the BB wasn't the one I was worried about when I made the call. In fact I felt justified in thinking that JTs would actually be ahead of many if not most of the hands UTG would raise with after seeing how easily he folded on that flop.

[sfer]

For non-steal/re-steal attempts, JT is a drawing hand that you want to see a flop with the following conditions:
1. Lots of limpers
2. Cheaply
3. With position

Position becomes a little less necessary as the table gets more loose/passive. But 1 and 2 you need to get good implied odds for when you flop a monster draw.

UTG killed your odds by raising (even if you're ahead). If there were several coldcallers it makes sense to see the flop but it was folded to you so it becomes unlikely that you'll get paid off well if you do flop a strong draw. So you've got a maniac raise, a likely legitimate raise behind you, only two opponents, and it's costing the max to see the flop. Not a good hand for Axs or all manner of suited connectors. In these situations you want a big pair or high card value--a hand you can 3-bet preflop.

[Tosh]

If you miss the flop will you call anymore bets?, after all he has raised with 87o and you may still be ahead.

[TimM]

Say the blinds both folded and the flop missed.

Well, he could have anything from AA to a hand like 87o or maybe worse. If JTs was ahead of his average raising hand before the flop, it may not be ahead of his average holding when the flop misses, since part of the hand's edge comes from the fact that the flop is a little more likely to hit my hand than his average hand. Still, I would consider the pot, the cards in the flop, possible outs, and the player, just as I would with any hand.

The fact that he raises with some hands I wouldn't even limp with from any position would make me believe that his raise is no more significant that an average player's limp, so I would play accordingly.

[2000Flushes]

I think if you really believe this guy has nothing you need to get it HU with him, which means 3betting him.

But I do agree with everyone here, fold that and wait for a better hand on which to fight him.

[CrackerZack]

If you're never gonna raise your TP post flop, fold it PF. 3-bet this PF if he's that nuts.

[Tosh]

I once saw someone cap with 38o. Does that mean I should be playing everything that figures to be better than that against this player ?

Cold calling is by far the worst option. If you really want to play the hand you can raise to get heads up, which I don't really like either as your hand has no showdown value.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're never gonna raise your TP post flop, fold it PF. 3-bet this PF if he's that nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

The nut folded before me on the flop, and I was up against a legit pre-flop 3-bet. If it were me and the nut heads up I'd definitely raise my top pair.

I considered the 3-bet pre-flop, and if the card ranks were a bit higher I would have, but with JTs I wanted the blinds to come too.

JTs may have looked better to me than it was at the time, but I don't think this is a disasterous play to make very occasionally.

[Saborion]

And by calling him with those cards you don't open up YOUR pocket for the better players at the table? JTs is not THAT good a hand, regardless of whether or not UTG raise with crap or not.

If you're making loose pre-flop calls like that you're bleeding money badly.