SB vs. chip leader

[EnderW27]

Blinds are 50/100. I'm in the SB with around T600 and the button is the leader with about T2400. I have Q-T suited.
Folded around to the button who just calls. I complete and BB checks.

Flop: A-T-5 rainbow.

I bet 100, BB folds, leader raises to 200, I call. Turn is an 8. I push all in for 350 more.
Results and my thinking in a later post, but I want to know what you all think so far.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Ender,

[ QUOTE ]
I have Q-T suited. Folded around to the button who just calls. I complete and BB checks.

Flop: A-T-5 rainbow.

I bet 100, BB folds, leader raises to 200, I call. Turn is an 8. I push all in for 350 more.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't mention having any specific reads on the chip leader, and without such a read it's really hard to say. If the chip leader was the type who'd have raised any Ace, KT, or pocket pair on the button, there's a decent chance that your second pair is good. But that's an "if," and you put your tournament on that "if."

I've played a read, many times. Sometimes I'm right, and sometimes I'm wrong. If you were playing a read, I really can't criticize it too much.

Cris

[EnderW27]

No specifics on how he plays. I'll say that I believe him to be above average as he's managed to triple his stack fairly early without getting lucky on the river. He's shown down quality hands, but I have no idea what his aggressive level is like.

Here's my thinking: he's chip leader and it's folded to him. He's against two small stacks and just comes in with a call. With an Ace I'm sure he'd raise. Heck, on a raise, I'm not even sure I'd play. I'd sooner let him steal 50 of my chips than get into a pissing match with the leader.

So I see the flop, have a piece of it, and bet out. When he raises, I put him on a ten. I might be beating his kicker. I might not. But I'm sure he doesn't have the Ace. So when the harmless 8 comes on the turn, I bet into him. If he just has a 10 I think he's got to lay it down here, giving me credit for an ace.

Instead, he calls.
Turns out, my read was right. No Ace. He has 5-5 and flopped a set. He wasn't going anywhere.

So yeah, my read was correct...but it wasn't. I didn't give him credit for a set. Never even occurred to me.

So I lost. It happens. I guess the real question is, even assuming my read is correct, how safe is it to gamble against a stack that has me covered with 1800 to spare? Any player with a set is going to kick me out of the tournament here but going up against the chip leader, he might have called me with a mere ten because he can afford it and the off chance of kicking me out is good enough incentive. How easy is it to make a move on the leader?

[CrisBrown]

Hi Ender,

In this situation, without any specific reads on this player except that he was solid, I think you had to lay down 2nd pair. When you bet second pair and get called, or worse, raised, you have to give your opponent credit for a hand. If he doesn't have an Ace -- and you were correct in that read -- he's also not afraid of an Ace. That means he has something better than a pair of Aces ... a strong draw, a set, two pair, or something.

In this situation, against a player who can bust you, I think discretion is the better part of valor. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Cris