SNG strategy

[UTGunner]

Against typical opponents, how far do you think you would get if you just allowed your chips to be blinded away from the start of the SNG?

I've seen some games where I think you would make it into the money. Agree?

[EnderW27]

A few months ago I was playing a $10 SNG and was pulled away for something in the middle of the first round. By the time I got back, I was on my last hand before being blinded out. I went out in 4th place.

My guess is that if you haven't played a single hand in the tournament, the opponents should all realize it and will make sure you don't get in the money.

[UTGunner]

Thanks for your story. The reason I posted was because of a discussion I had with a friend about how tight you should play in the early rounds of a SnG.

Since there always seem to be several players determined to go all-in with the first decent hand they have, unless you truly have a monster, does it not make sense to lay back in the early rounds until they are gone? Of course the counter-argument is that you will not have much of a chip position entering the later rounds, which will make a good result difficult.

Comments?

[bernie]

You'd get 4th.

Usually there will be 3 stacks bigger than you that will tighten up on the bubble and just steal your blinds.

I've entered sometimes and went and taken a shower. When i came back i was only down maybe 100 chips at the most and the blinds would be about 2, maybe 3, levels up. So i still have more than enough time and enough chips to have a decent shot at getting in the money.

b

[jwvdcw]

Definitely depends what level your playing at, but your premise of playing very tight early is right on.

[Michael Davis]

I actually finished 3rd here once, but 95% of the time you'd finish between 4th and 6th.

-Michael

[GoSox]

I agree with the above. If you were "away" you'd get your blinds stolen, but if you had just enough activity to show presence you'd be around 4th or 5th. It is a very plausible strategy to play super tight, try to pick the loose caller, and just try to double up on an occasional hand.

[LSUfan1]

I tend to play very tight/aggressive in SNG's. I generally only play pairs(raising BIG pairs, calling mid and low), and AK, AQ, AJ. I am generally around with a good enough stack to make a difference.

I am new to the game, but my track record thus far is money about 70% of the time, winning about 20%. Maybe by being more aggressive early I could win more, but I also feel I would not make the money nearly as often.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Against typical opponents, how far do you think you would get if you just allowed your chips to be blinded away from the start of the SNG?

I've seen some games where I think you would make it into the money. Agree?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite blinding yourself away, but a friend of mine came in 2nd in an SnG without ever winning a hand.

[TheGrifter]

I used to have connection problems on Party and I went out in the first orbit and finished in the money (almost always 3rd) several times.

[Barry_G]

At Party you will often finish 4th. At Stars not as high.
Play really tight at the start(at party) let the idiots knock themselves out. You will be short stacked against the opponents that pick these guys off but that doesn't mean that there that good of a player either. Double thru one and you have good chance of winning. However, with the blind structure at Party it's more of a crap shoot anyway imho.

[VegasPokerBoy]

This is why I sit out the first round sometimes the first two unless I am holding AA or I have enough notes on all the players. I have made the money in the first round and Party before (10+1) without even playing a hand! Then again I have been on full tables deep into round five! I try to let everyone knock each other out. I hope the tight players take some bad beats. And don't assume the players will see you are not playing. We are talking about Party here.

[AleoMagus]

Last summer I was thinking about this and I made a calculation that was interesting

After watching a few hundred $5 sngs on party, I made notes about when they reached the final 3. I came up with an average which was about 59 hands.

By considering that it took an average of 59 hands to eliminate 7 players, I concluded that it would take an average of ~8.5 hands to eliminate each player. This is of course not true as players tend to get eliminated in groups and usually once the blinds start getting bigger. Still, for sake of argument, assume this is the case

I then calculated how much it would cost at each hand to be able to blind oneself into the final 3.

Level 1 will cost 40 chips
Level 2 will cost 60 chips
Level 3 will cost 75 chips
Level 4 will cost 300chips
Level 5 will cost 600chips
Level 6 will cost 900chips

(this is assuming that players get eliminated on hands 9,17,26,34,42,50 and 59. It also assumes that you pay the blinds on your first two hands)

There are probably a lot more precise mathematical methods to determine average cost of blinds at each level (taking into account all possible button start positions, etc...). Oh well.

So, you can see that on hand one, you will need 1975 chips to be able to make the money
With the 800 that you start with, and these assumptions, you will likely finish 5th on hand 49. This is actually one hand away from 4th, so with just a few different assumptions (like starting out of the blinds) it would be 4th place instead.

Of course I understand this is all really meaningless because part of the reason that players are eliminated is other players participating in knocking them out. With you just sitting out, it might take longer. More importantly though, as your stack shrinks you will be targeted and players will likely take less risks on the bubble as they see you blinding away. I think you would finish 4th-5th about 99% of the time. At limits above 30+3, you would probably finish even worse.

I think it is very interesting to note how important the blinds become on level 4 and up. My party sng strategy pretty much consists of supertight play untill level 4 with a lot of steals after that. I think that these numbers suggest that you never want to showdown if you don't have to. I'm not (usually) looking to double up when I play. I'm looking to effectively steal so that I can stay alive orbit after orbit. It also pays not to be the smallest stack as that player is the guy who will be targeted.

The whole reason I did this calculation was that I occasionally found myself winning a monster hand right away and I wondered with (say) a 1600 stack, whether it might be more profitable for me to just forget about that sng and go find another at that point. I have since given up on such foolish thoughts, but I do think that one can come very close to not playing at all and be a profitable player in cheap party sngs.

Regards,
Brad S