poker-penguin
03-13-2004, 06:37 AM
OK, I apologise for something so trivial, but my maths sucks.
I've been trying to qualify for a $250 buyin tournament by way of SNGs.
My thinking is that if I stand a 1/10 chance of winning the SNG, it's an even value play (although it's higher variance).
1) What is the chance of me not qualifying in 10 attempts, even if I do suck so much I'm 1/10?
Since my record of first place in SNGS is better than that, it's a positive EV play to try and sneak in the back door right?
2) If I have a 1/8 chance of placing first, how much positive EV with the back door do I have if SNGs are $25 and the tournament is $250?
3) How do these answers change if we include the $25 prize (another free shot) for second place (again assuming equal chance of all finishing spots)?
Like I said, my math sucked (and re-raising allin T2300 with QJs to defend my T200 big blind three handed probably means I'm being generous with my 1/10 estimation. But anyway, it's the back door qualification numbers I'm interested in.
I've been trying to qualify for a $250 buyin tournament by way of SNGs.
My thinking is that if I stand a 1/10 chance of winning the SNG, it's an even value play (although it's higher variance).
1) What is the chance of me not qualifying in 10 attempts, even if I do suck so much I'm 1/10?
Since my record of first place in SNGS is better than that, it's a positive EV play to try and sneak in the back door right?
2) If I have a 1/8 chance of placing first, how much positive EV with the back door do I have if SNGs are $25 and the tournament is $250?
3) How do these answers change if we include the $25 prize (another free shot) for second place (again assuming equal chance of all finishing spots)?
Like I said, my math sucked (and re-raising allin T2300 with QJs to defend my T200 big blind three handed probably means I'm being generous with my 1/10 estimation. But anyway, it's the back door qualification numbers I'm interested in.