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View Full Version : What are the odds of being dealt pocket aces three times in a row?

mongrel
03-12-2004, 06:19 PM
This happened to me in a tourney at Stars.
Is it 220 times 220 times 220 or 1 in 10648000.

Thanks-
Outsidefun
03-12-2004, 06:54 PM
I believe you are close, each hand the odds are 1:221 so 221*221*221=10,793,861.

I had it (AA) back to back earlier this week.... 1:48,841 However, it was early in a tournament, and all players were tight, so little was gained....
uuDevil
03-12-2004, 08:11 PM
I believe you are close, each hand the odds are 1:221 so 221*221*221=10,793,861.

Nitpicking: the probability on 1 hand is (4/52)(3/51)=1/221. The odds are 220:1.

For 3 hands in a row, the probability is (1/221)^3, with corresponding odds of 10,793,860:1 against.

Carry on. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
Filip
03-12-2004, 10:31 PM
I get it too 1/169^3 = 1/4826809
uuDevil
03-12-2004, 11:52 PM
Filip,

169 is the number of unique Hold'em hands. This is not relevent in this instance because not all hands are equally likely. For example, AK offsuit (distinct from AK suited) is more likely than AA or any other pocket pair.
Paul2432
03-14-2004, 01:40 AM
For 3 hands in a row, the probability is (1/221)^3, with corresponding odds of 10,793,860:1 against

This is the odds of being dealt AA three times in a row starting with the next hand (or some other preselected group of three hands).

The odds of being dealt AA three times in a row depends on how much you play.

Paul
ZManODS
03-15-2004, 12:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The odds of being dealt AA three times in a row depends on how much you play.


[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?
Bozeman
03-15-2004, 02:45 PM
The odds of being dealt AA three times in a row, given that you have been dealt AA this hand, are 1:48840. So if you have been dealt AA 20000 times, it is not improbable that you have had AA,AA,AA .

Craig
k000k
03-15-2004, 04:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The odds of being dealt AA three times in a row depends on how much you play.


[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think he probably means something like

"If you play 100,000,000,000 hands, the odds are very likely that you'll hit AA 3x in a row.."
uuDevil
03-15-2004, 05:35 PM
Yikes! Everyone slowly back away....

I had no idea this coud be such a controversial topic! Check out

this older thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=244815&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)