Flopped Set on a Dangerous Board

[The Dude]

A few notes on my opponents. The player UTG in this hand is fairly decent, although he calls preflop raises a little too often. His favorite move is to push all-in on the flop when he has a strong hand or a good draw. The two MP players in this hand are typical bad players, and the button is flat out awful. In 3 hours there have been less than 10 flops he hasn't seen, including raised pots. He's called preflop raises with 25o (and stayed to the river to catch 2-pair, calling pot sized bets on the flop and river). He bluffs frequently, and has been catching amazing cards to run up to about $1200.

I post the $3BB and get 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG ($200 stack) raises to $10. Two MP callers (both under $100), button calls ($1200), I call ($227).

Flop comes 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

UTG will bet big with any hand that has the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif or K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, but will fold those cards if bet to unless they're part of an overpair. Button will almost surely bet if checked to, and will call just about any sized bet with as little as a straight draw (I know, hard to believe but it's the truth). Two MP players are harder to predict, but have just enough chips to fold a lot of draws if put all-in.

What's my play?

[SammyBenz]

Play it slow. Make sure that turn card isn't a straight or flush card. If it isn't, go ahead and bet substantially. If it is, fold without feeling like you've been sucked out on. If the board pairs, even better.

[Zag]

Let's discount for now the possibility of an overset.

I agree with Sammy's plan that you would like to see the turn cheaply. However, since you are out of position, you may not be able to control it. However, with 5 callers, certainly somebody has a heart, so you would really like to charge them for drawing.

It sounds like UTG, if he has a high heart, is likely to push in (a huge overbet) no matter what you do. You certainly don't want to call this heads up, because you are a huge dog to the made flush. However, if he gets just a single caller, then you nearly have odds to call even if you were positive he has the flush. Adding in the possibility of him semi-bluffing easily gives you odds.

I would make a smallish bet that still takes away pots odds for someone drawing at the flush. $20 (at the $50 pot) should do it. If UTG comes over the top all in, then I would call if anyone else called, otherwise fold. If he calls but someone else pushes in, you have a tougher decision, but probably fold.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Play it slow. Make sure that turn card isn't a straight or flush card. If it isn't, go ahead and bet substantially. If it is, fold without feeling like you've been sucked out on. If the board pairs, even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he play this slow? Why wait to see if the turn beats you when you can knock out the players who are capable of giving up a hand and let the terrible player pay you off while chasing his ridiculous draw?

SpaceAce

[kerpowski]

I'm looking to either get all-in HU with the Button or get all-in on the flop with two other people (giving me the odds to fill up if one of them has the flush or straight). I'd check here and see what everyone else did. If UTG or either MP makes a reasonable (pot sized or bigger) bet and there is at least one caller I'd push. Same goes for if it is checked to the button and he bets anything.

I'd have a tough choice if there was a small bet (and any number of callers). Any reasonable raise by you leaves you pot committed to a reraise but I don't like calling the small bet and giving them the odds to hit their draws. I'd probably lean towards making a pot sized bet, going all-in if reraised. If called and the turn is a heart check/fold if they don't give you the odds to fill up on the river check/call. If the turn isn't a heart push all-in. You may be taking the worst of it but if so, it isn't by much.

[The Dude]

I'm quite surprised that everybody is saying slowplay. Th last thing I want to do is let people see the turn cheaply. since my hand is probably good right now, but I'm vulnerable to so many draws. Almost half the deck is scare cards for me (any /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2, 3, 7, or 8), and even scarier the more people see the turn for cheap (yes, these players are bad enough to pay cheap to see the turn with an offsuit 3).

So I check, planning to check-raise overbet the pot, or push if UTG leads out strong. Checked to the button, who bets $100.

Does this change my plan? What's my move now?

[dmk]

I'd bet out 75. If you get called, and no heart hits, i'd think about pushing the turn (depending on who calls, etc). If a heart hits, you already know check/fold. If you get raised on the flop, you probably have to drop your hand, unless you KNOW that UTG will do it w/ JUST the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[kerpowski]

If it sounded like I was suggesting slowplaying then what I was trying to say came across wrong. You mentioned that there is a extremely good chance that either UTG or the Button would bet on this flop if checked to (and so a very low chance that it would be checked through). You want to be the raiser here, not the bettor so check-raising into a field you are very sure will bet seems like the best play.

Push all-in. If the button is as weak as you mentioned, you want to get all-in heads-up with a set against him. He needs to have the made straight or flush less than 2/3 of the time to make this all-in correct, if you don't think this is the case a fold is correct. Most likely you are a big favorite. If any of the others join in with a slowplayed flush you have the odds to fill up with three people in the pot.

[The Dude]

How can you suggest I fold to a raise here? There's $50 in the pot on the flop. You say I should bet out $75. If I get raised all-in, then there's $200 in the pot with about a $135 raise to me. That means I'm getting almost 2.5:1 to call, which would be correct even if I'm 100% sure he has the flush.

So if I'm going to be pot committed, why not check-raise all-in to get more money in the pot, and likely induce a semi-bluff from a hand that I'm ahead of? Their semi-bluffing only costs me money if there's a good chance I'll fold a better hand (not going to happen) or they get correct odds to draw (which won't happen unless a third player calls).

Anyway, I pushed all-in, everyone folded to the button. Button thinks for a few moments, then announces "I can't lay this down," as he pushes more chips into the middle. He turns over 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif for the flopped straight.

As the turn card is being flipped, a thought goes through my head. "Because of tonight, this guy will donate at the tables for years to come. Intermittent conditioning is a beautiful thing."