Carlos Mortenson's Call and Fold

[David Sklansky]

I saw the hand while playing poker so I might not have the details right. But for the sake of this analysis assume I do. Blinds were 1K and 2K. Noli Francisco opened for 10K with J8 of clubs. Carlos called with KQ offsuit. The flop came A77 with one club. Noli bet 20K and Carlos called. The next card was the king of clubs and Noli moved in 115K. Carlos folded. Which of the following is true?

Carlos played well.

Carlos played the flop well, but not fourth st.

Carlos played fourth st. well, but not the flop

Carlos play on either street could be justified, but not taken together.

[OrangeHeat]

[ QUOTE ]
Carlos play on either street could be justified, but not taken together.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm Guessing but here is my thought.

If he is going to call the flop he has to believe that Noli does not have an ace (based on the size of Noli's preflop raise I believe) so he is trying to spike a K or Q and maybe the backdoor draws.

Then the turn comes and he hits his K - but folds. This could be justified if he thought Noli had the A, BUT calling the flop infers he doesn't think Noli has the ace.

He either needs to be prepared to reraise the turn all-in when he spikes the K or fold the flop (or possibly bluff the flop when the Ace shows).

I am just getting into Tourney play so flame away if I am off base.

Orange

[Rushmore]

Carlos played well.

He knows that a smooth call on the flop will make it appear he is holding a hand of some sort, whereas a raise is conspicuously aggressive with this sort of flop. There are only a couple of hands to hold--a seven, and ace, or a pocket pair (I'd say this last is the only raisable hand here, for a combination info/protection).

All of this being true, he knows that Noli knows this. Noli's turn bet is unexpected, given his holding (unless he is trying to push him off exactly a pocket pair [he cannot be putting Carlos on KQ]).

Regardless of Noli's motivation for the turn semi-bluff, Carlos' laydown on the turn is a good play.

So..."Carlos played well."

[Goodie]

Carlos play on either street could be justified, but not taken together.

This is clearly the best choice because in my view the only reason to call on the flop is if you put Noli on absolutly nothing and was willing to commit the rest of your chips on the turn with either a call or a raise or bet. If you were not planning on committing later on in the hand, then Carlos should have raised or folded the flop.

Peace

Goodie

[theBruiser500]

What I don't understand is, what is Noli trying to represent? What hand would he play this way? Maybe I'm wrong on this, but I don't think it makes sense to play a pocket pair like this. And if he has an ace, it might make sense to paly it like this if he's trying to make carlos THINK it's a bluff so he'll call with a pocket pair, tha twould be pretty clever but it seems like a doubtful possibility to me. So Noli is weak, and carlos reads him for that, then he gives up on his read.

danny

[Paluka]

Carlos played 4th street well, but not the flop. He called the flop because he sensed some sort of weakness or that he could make a move on the turn. He was wrong and figured this out on the turn and made what seems like a good fold. I haven't watched it yet so I don't know Noli's hand.

[Phishy McFish]

I say he played 4th street fine, that is too much faith in a read without a A, 7 or pocket pair to call. Noli just beat him to the punch.

I think the flop play should have been raise or fold.....but I say this without remembering the chip counts so not sure which I think is the better play.

Also, any analysis of hands seen is hard because the players thought processes were based on many more hands unseen.

[Gamblor]

Maybe I'm wrong on this, but I don't think it makes sense to play a pocket pair like this. And if he has an ace, it might make sense to paly it like this if he's trying to make carlos THINK it's a bluff so he'll call with a pocket pair, tha twould be pretty clever but it seems like a doubtful possibility to me.

Why is that?

I would make this play in a tournament (and have), and I'm barely a winning 5/10 online player.

Is a final table player at a WPT event so incapable of this play?

[theBruiser500]

[ QUOTE ]
that is too much faith in a read

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can make a good read, you make it and go with it. If Carlos really though his king high was good, he should have gone with it. Ungar could have done it, Brunson too.

[Rushmore]

Gamblor said it, but I'll second it...

This is standard fare. It's esentially the equivalent of betting out when you flop a monster against a particular type of player who you know will read the bet for weakness.

[Phishy McFish]

...or is this simply rhetorical to generate buzz in the new aquarium forum.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

the flop? what was he hoping to catch? The best card he could have caught, HE CAUGHT, then folded!

really I think he played both the flop and turn pretty badly. I am assuming of course that carlos did not know what his opponent's hand was.

al

[Gamblor]

It's fairly obvious that Carlos planned to make a delayed bluff, but Noli beat him to it.

What makes the play so ridiculous, is what kind of hand did he expect Noli to fold to a bet that he didn't have beat with the K?

The only explanation is that he read Noli for a bluff on the flop, but for some reason the all-in bet on the turn changed his mind. Which means either he's a total fool, or his hand reading skills need work.

[Rushmore]

IMHO, in the case of this sort of "delayed bluff," the smooth call on the flop is an integral part of the endeavor.

While this might seem obvious enough, I'm reading some commentary that would indicate otherwise. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[TomCollins]

The answer is simple. Carlos played well, but Noli played this hand better. When Noli is called on the flop, he has to at least be scared. I don't think Carlos called because he thought he was ahead, but thought Noli had a hand that he could move off of. After Noli is called, he has to feel like he is behind, so it was an extremely bold play to put all of his chips in the middle after being called. Especially with the board paired and a K out, he knows if Carlos has an ace, he is going to call this. Maybe he had a good enough read on Carlos to know this wasn't the case. So Carlos's strategy of moving Noli off a hand just fell apart when Noli pushed.

[auntieklava]

I think Carlos' play on both streets can be justified. Although I haven't seen Noli Francisco play, I'd think the fact that he's able to make a play like this also means that Carlos has to put him on a fairly wide range of hands on the flop, many of which will be losing to an unimproved KQ. Also, his call on a board like this makes it very tough for Noli Francisco to pure bluff the turn, meaning Carlos will be able to check this hand down a fair bit of the time if he is good. When Noli still goes ahead and bets the turn, reevaluating the situation and dumping the hand makes sense despite the fact that he improved.

Anyway, this hand reminded me somewhat of a hand Scotty played in one of last years WPT-finals, where he called a very agressive players button-raise from the SB with A6o, and called again on a pretty ragged K-high flop. The hand was checked down and Scotty's unimproved A-high was good. Clearly, his calls were not necessarily made with the intention of launching a delayed bluff, but could have been made given the possibility of holding the best hand coupled with signalling to the button that he wouldn't be able to take the blinds down uncontested.

Make sense or no?

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly, his calls were not necessarily made with the intention of launching a delayed bluff, but could have been made given the possibility of holding the best hand coupled with signalling to the button that he wouldn't be able to take the blinds down uncontested.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think if it's checked to him on the turn, he must make a strong play for the pot. There are a LOT of hands better than KQ that Noli can laydown here.

Again, his smooth call on the flop makes this play possible.

[Toro]

This is an over-generalization, of course, but as usually happens the one who plays the hand aggressively usually ends up with the chips.

Carlos never made a play for the pot.

[brick]

This hand was trouble for Carlos because he didn’t think about the situation that calling the flop bet is going to put his opponent into.

Noli makes a nice pot sized bet. The pot is 43k. In calling 20k, the pot became very large in relation to Noli’s stack. (63k pot to 115k stack)
Carlos’ call put Noli in a situation where had to check and surrender, or go all in.

If Carlos thought there was a good (~1:2 pot odd...say > 40%) chance calling the bet would cause Noli to surrender it’s an okay play. Noli didn’t check and surrender, so he had to fold to the all-in bet.

I say the flop play was wrong in that you shouldn’t give free cards and show weakness. Carlos should have put Noli to that decision with one less card on the board. For example raising to 50k on the flop. I think that there’s more profit in this play because you will get a fold much more often(~1:1 pot odds...say > 70%).

[Easy E]

"Carlos play on either street could be justified, but not taken together. "

I don't see how you justify calling the flop if you'll fold on the turn when your top pair hits... or folding if you called this flop.

[SossMan]

I vote for A) Carlos played well

He dind't call because he thought he had the best hand, or a draw to the best hand. He called because he thought that he could take the pot from Noli on the turn or the river. A call on the flop on that particular board (a medium pair w/ and overcard showing w/ no flush or staight draws) is much scarier than a raise, IMO.
I'm sure Noli put him on an A or a 7 after the flop call. Noli has to think that Carlos would have popped him on the flop if he had a pocket pair. There were no other draws there. It's tough to put him on KQo.
On the turn, Noli picked up a flush draw and decided to push Carlos off of his ace. In the rare event that he gets called, more than likely, he has 7 or 8 clean outs.
Noli made a good bet, pure and simple.

Carlos made a good laydown. He didn't call the flop so that he could outdraw on the turn. He called the flop so he could steal on the turn. Noli went all in ahead of him, so that took away his stealing options.

All in all, I like the play by both players.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
What makes the play so ridiculous, is what kind of hand did he expect Noli to fold to a bet that he didn't have beat with the K?


[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I don't know...how about any unimproved pocket pair.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm wrong on this, but I don't think it makes sense to play a pocket pair like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would play any pocket pair exactly like this. Along w/ any ace, and possibly even a 7.

[cferejohn]

This is more about Noli's play, but it should be pointed out that he picked up a flush draw on the turn. It seems like his play was a classic "I'm behind, but I think this player is good enough to fold a pair here, maybe even a bad ace, and if I am called, I have outs".

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
This is more about Noli's play, but it should be pointed out that he picked up a flush draw on the turn. It seems like his play was a classic "I'm behind, but I think this player is good enough to fold a pair here, maybe even a bad ace, and if I am called, I have outs".

[/ QUOTE ]

Once the king hits the board, there is no "bad ace," a fact which really does reduce the chances of this bet working.

But what the hell--it worked anyway.

[GOODBEATGUY2001]

"Carlos played fourth st. well but not the flop"

When Noli opened for 10k, instead of calling I would have raised at least 40k representing a high ace or a high pocket pair and without the pot odds, Noli would have been hard pressed to call much less raise with a drawing hand such as J8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. By playing his high cards passively before and after the flop, he displayed weakness and therefore encouraged Noli to semi bluff him with his club draw. I thought his laydown on fourth st. was correct as now he had to guess that Noli had at least an AK or a pocket pair and that he would have been a big underdog.

[Gamblor]

what kind of hand did he expect Noli to fold to a bet that he didn't have beat with the K?

how about any unimproved pocket pair

You mean the pocket pair that he beat when the turn fell K?

If Carlos was planning to bluff the turn all along, he put Noli on a hand without an A. When the K falls, Carlos must believe he now has the best hand, because he thought he could bluff Noli out on the flop (meaning, he read Noli for no A).

Then he gets bet into again.

[mike l.]

im gonna go out on a limb and say this:

"Carlos played well."

when he calls the flop it's because he's looking to make a move on the turn. but then when noli beats him to it and moves in all those chips on the turn carlos has to give up his plan and abandon ship. pretty simple stuff really.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
what kind of hand did he expect Noli to fold to a bet that he didn't have beat with the K?

how about any unimproved pocket pair

You mean the pocket pair that he beat when the turn fell K?

If Carlos was planning to bluff the turn all along, he put Noli on a hand without an A. When the K falls, Carlos must believe he now has the best hand, because he thought he could bluff Noli out on the flop (meaning, he read Noli for no A).

Then he gets bet into again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok..here's the deal. You have two ways to win a pot, right? You either have the best hand, or you bet enough so the other person cannot call (even if they have a better hand)
When Noli bet into him on the turn all in, Carlos now only had one way of winning, by turning over the best hand AND having it hold up. Maybe he did put Noli on a pocket pair on the flop, but readjusted his thinking when the K came on the turn. Maybe he didn't think that Noli would go all in w/ out being able to beat a King. Either way, even if he's pretty confident on his read that the king was good, he no longer had the equity of Noli folding a better hand.
It's the classic case of the aggressor being rewarded, as is so often the case in holdem.

[jwvdcw]

I think fastplaying trip 7s like that with the board of a-k-7-7 isn't a bad idea because your opponent won't expect you to be fastplaying them so much. And if your opponent called your small bet on the flop, then you might be able to put him on aces, so you know he stands a decent chance of calling.

[jwvdcw]

I think he misplayed the flop. If he sensed a bluff, then he should've raised small there imo.

[David Sklansky]

I don't consider this merely a matter of opinion. Carlos played well. Noli will bet a lot of hands on the flop that Carlos beats. If Carlos calls, Noli will usually be done with those hands. It is not even necessary for Carlos to raise on the flop or bet the turn or river (if checked to) for the play to show a profit. It is only necessary to know that Noli could easily have a worse hand as is not apt to fire the second barrel with it.

When instead he fires that second barrel, Carlos is almost sure that Noli has a big hand. Even if he realizes that the one hand Noli is apt to bet that he can beat is a picked up flush draw, the chances of that hand is too small to make the call right.

The fact is that Carlos was going to win this hand more than half the time and just got unlucky that Noli happened to turn a three flush into a four flush.

[theBruiser500]

yeah, but he raised preflop so it's very unlikely he has a 7

[Rushmore]

Goodness. It would appear only a small handful of posters got the correct answer!

However, I would like to say that one aspect of the hand that you are neglecting here is the scenario where Noli has a pocket pair (or a flush draw, it turns out), reads Carlos' flop call as strength, checks the turn, and folds to a bet.

While it might seem a bit presumptuous of me to, ahem, correct you, doesn't this seem like a legitimate aspect of the play?

[ QUOTE ]
It is not even necessary for Carlos to raise on the flop or bet the turn or river (if checked to) for the play to show a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would be a mistake for Carlos to check behind on the turn. There's plenty in the middle, and Noli will get off pocket pairs and draws if the price is wrong for him.

I, uh, think.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't consider this merely a matter of opinion. Carlos played well. Noli will bet a lot of hands on the flop that Carlos beats. If Carlos calls, Noli will usually be done with those hands. It is not even necessary for Carlos to raise on the flop or bet the turn or river (if checked to) for the play to show a profit. It is only necessary to know that Noli could easily have a worse hand as is not apt to fire the second barrel with it.

When instead he fires that second barrel, Carlos is almost sure that Noli has a big hand. Even if he realizes that the one hand Noli is apt to bet that he can beat is a picked up flush draw, the chances of that hand is too small to make the call right.

The fact is that Carlos was going to win this hand more than half the time and just got unlucky that Noli happened to turn a three flush into a four flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey David, I've really enjoyed this thread, are you going to be posting more like it from time to time in this forum? I didn't get in on this one b/c I couldn't recall the specifics of the hand in question and I erased that episode from my Tivo

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif..gr8 post david..keep em coming...man this is advice ya pay 1000.00 per hour or more to get...if ya don't like this; ya don't like free-rolling with the pure nuts..

jmho..gl /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[SossMan]

Na na na na na na...I was right...my dad can beat up your dad /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Rushmore]

[David Sklansky]

I did not say Carlos should check it down. That's debatable. Merely said that that strategy would have a positive EV compared to folding on the flop.

[Rushmore]

[baggins]

Carlos play on either street could be justified, but not taken together.

knowing that both players think several levels above the average player, they both know all the 'moves' here. Carlos' call on the flop was too passive (especially for his playing style. though i didn't catch this game, so maybe i'm off?). he was either calling with 2 non-Ace face cards, or was slow-playing something big like a 7 or a big Ace. Noli's turn bet into Carlos after being called on the flop represents a hand that doesn't fear at least a pocket pair bigger than 7's, so Carlos has to fear an Ace, probably. the thing is, Noli knows that a call on that flop either represents a big hand or a setup for a move. anticipating the latter, Noli moves in on the turnto force his opponent out.

the thing is, there are several ways to look at it, but it comes down to the fact that the worse hand made the better hand fold. that's always bad for the better hand...

[baggins]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought his laydown on fourth st. was correct as now he had to guess that Noli had at least an AK or a pocket pair and that he would have been a big underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

but on fourth street, Carlos can now beat all pocket pairs...

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, but he raised preflop so it's very unlikely he has a 7

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but thats why I would love fastplaying the flopped set even more...your opponent would never expect it.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't consider this merely a matter of opinion. Carlos played well. Noli will bet a lot of hands on the flop that Carlos beats. If Carlos calls, Noli will usually be done with those hands. It is not even necessary for Carlos to raise on the flop or bet the turn or river (if checked to) for the play to show a profit. It is only necessary to know that Noli could easily have a worse hand as is not apt to fire the second barrel with it.

When instead he fires that second barrel, Carlos is almost sure that Noli has a big hand. Even if he realizes that the one hand Noli is apt to bet that he can beat is a picked up flush draw, the chances of that hand is too small to make the call right.

The fact is that Carlos was going to win this hand more than half the time and just got unlucky that Noli happened to turn a three flush into a four flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said that it wasn't profitable, but I believe that there was a play that was more profitable. There are 4 hands that he can put Noli on....

1.Pair of aces. In this case, I believe he would fold to the flop bet. He didn't fold, so I don't think he put him on a pair of aces. Carlos could try to bluff even if he thinks his opponent has aces, but its very risky since his opponent showed strength preflop. Overall, I don't think its very likely that Carlos put him on aces.

2.Trip 7s. As was already said, not likely due to the preflop raise. Obviously, if he puts Noli on trip 7s, he must fold right away.

3.Pocket pair. This is probably the trickiest scenario, and I think its very likely that Carlos thought that Noli had a pocket pair. In that case, a cold call of the flop bet, and a later raise would be a perfect bluff. I think its very possible that this is exactly what he planned on doing, but his planned was foiled when Noli went all in after the turn. If this is the case, then I do believe that Carlos played it decently but just picked the wrong/unlucky spot to make his move.

4.A bluff. This is what Noli was doing, and its possible that Carlos knew this. This is where I disagree with your thinking. There are 6 cards that would give Nolie a better hand on the turn in addittion to the 7 other clubs that wouuld give him the flush draw. So if you put your opponent on a bluff, you absolutely have to raise to not give him a chance to catch. I can't see why you would advocate a cold call here.

Moreover, you wrote, 'Noli will bet a lot of hands on the flop that Carlos beats. If Carlos calls, Noli will usually be done with those hands.' .....I'm not understanding your reasoning at all here. Noli usually would play one way, but he switched up his style and tricked Carlos. This is the very definition of outplaying somebody. Carlos had a preconceived notion of how Noli played, which was totally and fully wrong on this hand. Carlos was wrong.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
Carlos had a preconceived notion of how Noli played, which was totally and fully wrong on this hand. Carlos was wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Saying he was wrong was still different than saying he made a mistake. It's like doubling down on 11 in blackjack, drawing a 3, and saying you were wrong to double down.

I still am amazed how many people use what Carlos put Noli on for the flop to justify his turn decision. You can put someone on one thing in one place, but when another card comes and more action hits, very often you put them on a different hand.

My guess is that Carlos put Noli on a variet of hands, and had enough of a chance that Noli would check the turn if he calls. When the K comes, and Noli pushes, Carlos has to reevaluate his read. There is a good enough chance he is behind, and folds. I don't remember Carlos's stack size, but if it's small enough compared to the size of the call, the call is certainly justified.

[Easy E]

"The flop came A77 with one club. Noli bet 20K and Carlos called. The next card was the king of clubs and Noli moved in 115K. Carlos folded. Which of the following is true?

Carlos played well."

[ QUOTE ]
Noli will bet a lot of hands on the flop that Carlos beats. If Carlos calls, Noli will usually be done with those hands. It is not even necessary for Carlos to raise on the flop or bet the turn or river (if checked to) for the play to show a profit. It is only necessary to know that Noli could easily have a worse hand as is not apt to fire the second barrel with it.

When instead he fires that second barrel, Carlos is almost sure that Noli has a big hand. Even if he realizes that the one hand Noli is apt to bet that he can beat is a picked up flush draw, the chances of that hand is too small to make the call right.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying, David, that Carlos should only be calling to catch a bluff.... but once he improves his hand, Noli can no longer be bluffing when he bets again?
If Noli will open with that many hands, can the range be narrowed down THAT much on the turn? I'm assuming that if Carlos put Noli on the flush draw that Carlos should easily call the all-in (that is what you meant by move-in, isn't it?).

Based on what little I saw on the show, Noli's hand range wasn't too small. What do you know about Noli's play that we don't, since you're saying he wouldn't fire out with anything but a real hand on the turn?

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Carlos had a preconceived notion of how Noli played, which was totally and fully wrong on this hand. Carlos was wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Saying he was wrong was still different than saying he made a mistake. It's like doubling down on 11 in blackjack, drawing a 3, and saying you were wrong to double down.

I still am amazed how many people use what Carlos put Noli on for the flop to justify his turn decision. You can put someone on one thing in one place, but when another card comes and more action hits, very often you put them on a different hand.

My guess is that Carlos put Noli on a variet of hands, and had enough of a chance that Noli would check the turn if he calls. When the K comes, and Noli pushes, Carlos has to reevaluate his read. There is a good enough chance he is behind, and folds. I don't remember Carlos's stack size, but if it's small enough compared to the size of the call, the call is certainly justified.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with your blackjack analogy. Doubling down on an 11 is the right move. Mis-reading your opponent is the wrong move.

I'm not trying to 'justify his turn decision' at all. In fact, I don't mind his turn decision to fold. I think that his flop play was wrong. He put Noli on a bluff or a semi-bluff. He has to re-raise there imo. You can't give a semi-bluff a free card, you need to raise it.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you know about Noli's play that we don't, since you're saying he wouldn't fire out with anything but a real hand on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I think David and Carlos are wrong. They seem to want to pigeon-hole Noli as a player who will often bluff after the flop, but you can safely call if you sense a bluff because he'll rarely follow up his bluff.

If I was Noli, I would take advantage of this 'reputation' and do exactly the opposite....which is exactly what he did. He played opposite of how he usually does in order to outplay Carlos.

[Jeff V]

[David Sklansky]

With a flop of A77 and a $20,000 call on the flop, NO good player will follow that up with a 115K all in pure bluff. And it doesn't matter that everyone knows that, as some of you seem to think. Don't you see why?

[Easy E]

David, there's no chance that he's betting a weaker King here on the turn? Or another hand you can beat, such as an underpair? Or, say, a 4-flush?
With some of the moves that Carlos had been making during the tournament, Noli can't put Carlos on a weaker hand than Carlos really had?

I admit I don't see why, in response to your statement- but I'm no NL expert.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Easy E,

With a paired board, the general rule is that the first bettor will take down the pot. The exception is when the first bettor gets called. Then, if he's bluffing, he has to back off and respect the possibility of a set.

Carlos knows this, as do most experienced NLHE players. He flat-called at the flop, representing the set, intending to bluff at the turn if Noli checked to him. And if Noli had checked, Carlos would almost certainly have taken the pot.

When Noli pushed at the turn, he was saying "I'm not afraid of a 7, or a King." In Carlos' mind, Noli either has the 7, Aces up, or worse, A7. Considering that Carlos had only bottom two pair, he couldn't call.

Cris

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
With a flop of A77 and a $20,000 call on the flop, NO good player will follow that up with a 115K all in pure bluff. And it doesn't matter that everyone knows that, as some of you seem to think. Don't you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you didn't say that earlier. You said, ' Noli will bet a lot of hands on the flop that Carlos beats. If Carlos calls, Noli will usually be done with those hands.' You claimed that Noli wouldn't even continue the bluff at all for any amount, not that he wouldn't go all in.

Moreover, I don't consider a 4-flush with one card to come to be that great of a hand. Its pretty close to an all out bluff imo rather than a semi-bluff.

So explain to me again why Carlos shouldn't have raise don the flop. After all, there were 10 clubs out there that could've allowed Noli to semi bluff like he did, thus forcing Carlos to fold. Wouldn't it have been a better play that if he put Noli on a complete bluff after the flop to raise so that Noli wouldn't have had the chance to catch a hand that can semi bluff/

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Easy E,

With a paired board, the general rule is that the first bettor will take down the pot. The exception is when the first bettor gets called. Then, if he's bluffing, he has to back off and respect the possibility of a set.

Carlos knows this, as do most experienced NLHE players. He flat-called at the flop, representing the set, intending to bluff at the turn if Noli checked to him. And if Noli had checked, Carlos would almost certainly have taken the pot.

When Noli pushed at the turn, he was saying "I'm not afraid of a 7, or a King." In Carlos' mind, Noli either has the 7, Aces up, or worse, A7. Considering that Carlos had only bottom two pair, he couldn't call.

Cris

[/ QUOTE ]

See, I totally agree with your line of thought here, yet I still insist that it would've been a better play to raise on the flop. After all there are a lot of cards that would've give Noli a semi bluff hand, so wouldn't it have been better to just take the pot right there/

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
David, there's no chance that he's betting a weaker King here on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a board of A77K, there is no "weaker king." Does this temper your stance?

[TomCollins]

You really think Noli pushing is the best play if he had AA or a 7? He has to check here, especially against Carlos.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
With a flop of A77 and a $20,000 call on the flop, NO good player will follow that up with a 115K all in pure bluff. And it doesn't matter that everyone knows that, as some of you seem to think. Don't you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Why?

It seems like a good reason to do that. The more you insist no player would do it, the better it looks.

eastbay

[Vince Lepore]

I don't know the overall situation of this hand but if they were short handed 3 or less players, maybe 4 then Carlos made a mistake on the turn by not calling.

Short handed Carlos can justifiably take the position of disregarding the top card on the board. Given that he can assume that if he hits his K or Q his hand is good. I believe folding the turn if the game was short handed is a big mistake and he played badly on the turn. If it was a full game he may have played badly on the flop.

Vince

[CrisBrown]

Hi Tom,

[Note: I'm not sure of the exact suits involved, but assume this is the board at the turn:

A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif]

I'd have pushed with a 7 here -- though not with A7 -- because I'd have wanted to charge Carlos if he's drawing at a flush, or to catch another A or K and possibly an overset.

I'd also have pushed with the flush draw -- as Noli did -- precisely because it reads so much like a made set. If Carlos has only an A or K, he has to worry about whether I've made a set. If he has the set, at least I have outs. This is not the case with a pure bluff, and that's why David said that Noli would never fire a second barrel on a pure bluff in this situation.

I disagree with those who think Noli would make this bet on a medium pocket pair (QQ-88). With two overcards and 77 on board, where you bet at the flop and got called, I think it would be silly to bet a medium pair here. You have to give your opponent credit for an A, a K, or a 7.

Would Noli have bet again with a weak Ace? I doubt it. If he has A7, he wants Carlos to catch something and bluff off his chips. If he has any other Ace, he has to respect the pair on board -- and Carlos' flop call -- and check it down.

Now, let's give Carlos credit for being able to figure that out, because he is after all a former World Champion. When Noli pushes, Carlos figures he's either way behind (to a set) or that Noli has outs (with the club draw).

Let's say Carlos figures it's 50/50 that Noli has the club draw or the set. That means 50% of the time, Noli has nine outs (1:5), so even if Carlos is ahead, Noli stands to win 10 out of 50 times. And 50% of the time, Noli is way ahead with the set, and Carlos is dead to two outs (1:22), and Noli stands to win 48 of 50. So if Carlos puts it at 50/50 that Noli is semi-bluffing, he figures Noli to win 58% of the time, and it's a clear fold.

Even if Carlos is 75% sure that Noli is semi-bluffing, he then has to figure Noli to win almost 40% of the time (15 of 75 times when the flush hits, and 24 of 25 times when Noli has the 7). That's only a 3:2 edge ... if his read is right ... for almost all of his chips ... at a final table where most of the money is in the top three places. I'd fold it and wait for a better opportunity to get all of my money in.

I think both players played this hand well, and Noli came away with the pot.

Cris

[Mikey]

Hey Dave, Stu Ungar wouldn't??

[Easy E]

of course.... but you make a good point.

However, Carlos would be freerolling to catch a Queen if Noli does have the "weaker King"

[Easy E]

i hadn't thought it all the way through, evidently- obviously i'm not an NL expert.

I wonder though, with all of the hands that Noli was showing (at least on TV) whether even 25% of the A or 7 was too high?

I have a lot to improve on for NL, since I was thinking that if you can call to catch a bluff on 3rd, pairing your King would improve your hand to beat a number of 'real' hands that Noli could bet. Your analysis brought to light the fact that it might not be true.

[blackaces13]

Not exactly free rolling. The weaker than Q other card (assuming its also higher than 7) can pair too which would win it for the now proverbial "weaker king".

[Easy E]

This semi-bluff rebuttal /images/graemlins/crazy.gif is based on the following calculations (so if they are wrong, then I lose out)

When the flop comes, it is apparent that Noli was a 3.9:1 dog to have an Ace or a 7 in his hand. When the turn comes, it only improves the chances to 3.8:1.

If the above is correct and Carlos has no clubs, then the chance against Noli having any of the remaining 3 Aces, any of the 8 remaining clubs, or the 2 sevens is 1.11:1.

As part of that, it's 1.91:1 that Noli doesn't have two clubs, or twice as likely as holding a hand that Carlos isn't ahead of right now on the turn.

Since it's 3.8:1 against Carlos being behind on the turn, does that still mean that Carlos shouldn't have called? The pot odds were 1.55:1 on the call. Are those odds not enough to cover the times that Noli might have been bluffing or semi-bluffing? Especially since every pro evidently knows the "first in on flop, back off on turn" rule of NL?