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View Full Version : Implied odds example

Nate tha' Great
03-12-2004, 01:42 AM
This is from a hand that I played tonight. Game is 15/30 but playing like 2/4. Very loose passive, very fishy game, very poor postflop play all around the table. I have 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the CO.

There are three limpers to me, I limp, button limps, SB completes ... loosey BB than raises, and everyone calls.

7 and 14 SB to the flop:

T /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

BB opens for a bet, and all three limpers call.

I call and I don't think it's close.
asdf1234
03-12-2004, 01:47 AM
I agree. I had a similar situation today with 44. I spiked a 4 on the turn and won a nice pot when 3 people paid me off to the river. Somebody who slowplayed two pair on the flop complained about his rotten luck.
Trix
03-12-2004, 02:26 AM
It doesn´t matter to you that BB could be holding 99-TT or one of the others 87, making you most likely drawing dead with huge reversed implied odds ?
Also if the 6 does hit on the turn it will give someone with a 7 or 8 a gutshot redraw.
Nate tha' Great
03-12-2004, 02:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]
It doesn´t matter to you that BB could be holding 99-TT or one of the others 87, making you most likely drawing dead with huge reversed implied odds ?
Also if the 6 does hit on the turn it will give someone with a 7 or 8 a gutshot redraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figure that the call will be positive EV if I'm good 2/3 of the time or more when I spike my 6, and I think that I will be.
Gramps
03-12-2004, 04:42 AM
If it's not too time consuming to do, could you post your calculation/anlaysis of this? I'm trying to gain a better understanding of when it's proper to call a bet on the flop with an under-pocket pair.

I can see that it's pretty close as far as "real odds" right there, getting 18 to 1 on a 22 to 1 shot. What Turn/River action are you assuming with your "have to win 2/3 of the time or greater" analysyis? Do you ever factor in odds it will be checked to you on the Turn (maybe not in this specific example, but in others) as far as possibly getting 2 cards for one SB?