River Decision: Bet or Check?

[Manzanita]

In a B&M $10-20 game, everyone folds to the button who open-raises. This is the button's third hand in the game and I know nothing about him. The SB folds. I have the A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif in the BB and decide to call.

The flop comes 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I check-call when the button bets.

The turn is 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I check-raise and, after some thought, the button calls.

The river is a brick, the 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. What's my play?

I'll post how the hand played out below.

-- Manzanita

[Clarkmeister]

3-bet preflop. I don't mind deception but this is entirely too much hand given the situation.

I'd have checkraised the flop since you called preflop. This is exactly the flop that you benefit from your smoothcall on.

On the turn, I'd just bet out. The checkraise is too fishy looking, and in that game most players aren't betting the turn with a hand that will lay down against that board.

Given that he did call, I'd go ahead and bet the river. AK might fold, a worse ace might call. You really don't want to just give up by checking, which is essentially what you'd be doing. Besides, following through with a bet here sends a strong image message to the entire table that you are playing every hand to the hilt and they can't just call hoping you'll relent. You represented a big hand on the turn, follow through and bet it.

[Nightwish]

I would check-call here. The problem is that he won't fold any hand that beats you (except for possibly AK). If you bet, he'll call if he thinks that there's at least 1 in 8 chance that you'd bluff in this situation. If he's really tricky and senses that you're bluffing, he might even try a raise. What would you do then?

[Manzanita]

Clarkmeister,

You make some valid comments about how I played this hand. My deceptive play on the early streets was inappropriate given that I thought I had the best hand the whole way.

I should have phrased my question regarding how to play the river differently: Do I have enough of a hand to just check (and call a bet, of course) or is there a good chance that I'm behind (and need to bet to try to get a better hand to fold)? I chose the latter course and bet out; my opponent quickly folded.

Thanks for the response.

-- Manzanita

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet preflop. I don't mind deception but this is entirely too much hand given the situation.

I'd have checkraised the flop since you called preflop. This is exactly the flop that you benefit from your smoothcall on.

On the turn, I'd just bet out. The checkraise is too fishy looking, and in that game most players aren't betting the turn with a hand that will lay down against that board.

Given that he did call, I'd go ahead and bet the river. AK might fold, a worse ace might call. You really don't want to just give up by checking, which is essentially what you'd be doing. Besides, following through with a bet here sends a strong image message to the entire table that you are playing every hand to the hilt and they can't just call hoping you'll relent. You represented a big hand on the turn, follow through and bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree. following through and betting the river here after representing such a big hand means you'll really only be called when beaten and will be called down also with enough hands that would be better than yours to make a bluff unprofitable.

given the play of this particular hand i'd say check and give the button a chance to bluff at it and call him down. he can have high kings or aces or even qj. you profit MORE from letting him bluff than you do from betting and him calling with a worse hand.

typically a player only considers one play and thinks if that play has a good chance of working it will be profitable and i'll do it. that is the case with betting out. even if it is profitable, letting the button bluff here will win you many more hands and much more money. especially when there's even a chance he can raise you off the best hand if you bet. there's no chance of the latter happening if you check and call here.

in retrospect you need to take control of this hand, reraise preflop and bet out as you almost certainly have the best hand on the flop. c-r'ing the turn can be costly and it would be nice to know if you're behind ak or a pair here (which is why you should reraise preflop b/c a cap will let you know, most of the time, you're against a bigger hand and can facilitate the play on later streets)

questions? comments?
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

yes of course he folded his no holding here when a blank fell, and it might have been AK. but notice that given your play a bet here will ONLY be called by something that beats you and a bluff is only a bluff if you bet and get a better hand to fold. the only better hands here are a pair or ak. if he had any sort of higher pair hed have played differently. therefore, given the play of the hand you should still consider checking as he will bet with many hands you beat thinking you have a busted low draw here. then your call gets the bet from him you would not get the requisite # of times you bet out and he folds.

this is an almost perfect spot in which to induce a bluff from an aggressive player in a steal position after you've called for deception. let him think you're just pulling the old c-c flop and c-r turn move that idiots do all the time with low cards and nothing going for them. this is, of course, unless he truly respects your play...which also needs to be taken into account.

what do you think you'll do in the future?
-Barron

[Dreamer]

Sounds like he had A-10 to A-K.

Betting is a must as he might call with A-10 or A-J.
Before your river bet there is 14.5 small bets in the pot so a bet is a must if you think he will fold AK, AQ or a small pair hand such as A-3 or A-5.
If he raises its easy to fold as well.

[DcifrThs]

what you say has some merit but look at what happens when he has aj, at, or kj, kq, qj, kt, or any other high paint that he would play in that manner. you've given up a bet you'd win by checking b/c you want him to fold so badly...but DO you want him to fold here? well only if he has a better holding than you. i contend that it is likely you'll be called here by ANY pair given the heads up nature of this play and betting is not nearly as profitable as checking and allowing hiim the opportunity to bluff.

-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

They don't bluff the river in the Mirage 10-20. They do fold lots of winning hands though. Checking to induce a bluff is by and large a useless play in that game. His river bet was good, not only as a bluff, but for image and table control reasons. Checking would have been terrible, weak poker, especially in that game where they look for reasons to fold, and fear a good aggressive player.