Is Sklansky wrong?

[WyattErb]

I posted this one before...strangely i have never seen that post again!

I like to read them poker books over and over, and again, i have read something very strange...

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If the flop is J /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif thats an excellent flop to A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. thats true...but what he writes later kinda confuses me..."u r not even a big underdog to a flopped set of trips"

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well, as so often before, i used the odds calculator on www.cardplayer.com. (http://www.cardplayer.com.) man... u r a huge underdog to a flopped set of trips...did i get something wrong here? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Henke]

If we put the opponent on 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, then you're a 2.36:1 dog according to twodimes.net. If the flop would have come J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, you had the same cards and your opponent would have 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, then you would be a 61.5:1 dog. That's a huge dog.

[rayrns]

Trips win 70% to 30% for the nut flush draw. 70:30 = 2.3:1 underdog. I guess the answer lies in what a person deems as a "huge" underdog. If my math is wrong, I hope someone corrects me.

[Tosh]

No DS is correct you are not a huge underdog here.

[WyattErb]

yes...that was about the same i had calculated, i would say u r a big underdog when ur odds are 2.36:1. arent u?
Well, i would actually like to see what Mr. Sklansky has to say about this matter!?

[Tosh]

Come on, you're up against the nuts or second nuts on the flop and only a bit over 2/1 against, thats not a big dog.

[pudley4]

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Well, i would actually like to see what Mr. Sklansky has to say about this matter!?

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He's already said: "You're not a big underdog"

I think it's safe to assume he got the math part right, so all that's left is the difference of opinions. You think 2.3-1 is a huge underdog; Sklansky (and the majority of posters here) think it's not.

[BugsBunny]

You hold A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Opponent has 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Flop comes 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Are you a "huge" dog here? Would you fold? (assume the pot has 6 SB in it)

Huge is all relative. In poker you're often the underdog - but you have chances to win. If the odds don't favor you continuing that's huge. If the odds do favor you continuing then it's not huge.

[Mike Haven]

in practical terms, if neither of you improve, he wins

you need one of 9 diamonds to beat his 8c8s but then he still has 9 outs to river an 8, a 4, a J, or one of the three x's that flushed you

if you turn a Jack, he's filled his house and you need one of the three Aces, one of the three 4's, or the Jack to beat him - if you river an 8 you are really up shite creek without a paddle

if you turn an Ace, you are still chasing one of 4 outs

i must admit it doesn't seem like a great starting point to me

[Mikey]

hey... you're right!

[CrackerZack]

[ QUOTE ]
yes...that was about the same i had calculated, i would say u r a big underdog when ur odds are 2.36:1. arent u?

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yeah, huge. I'm often having trouble finding a pot laying me 2.36:1 odds.

[J.A.Sucker]

Against a set with top pair you're drawing about as close to dead as normally ever happens in holdem games. With the flush draw, you're not getting crushed, and by putting in excessive action, you're really not hurting yourself. Putting in lots of money as you are drawing dead (or close to it) is a mathematical disaster, whereas putting in money where it's costing you a fraction of a bet (which would be the case here) isn't. That's it.

[Spyder]

I think the 'huge' term is meant to reflect how likely it is that you'll get pot odds to continue. For instance, 2.5:1...it is fairly likely that you can get these odds from the pot. However, 65:1....it is not very likely to get proper pot odds to continue. So, wherever the break over point is in your general play that the average pot will cease to give you appropriate odds to play a draw would be where 'huge' begins. I'd say at about 7 or 8 to 1 would be about there....

Spyder

[WyattErb]

true, but the problem is, that there are occasions, where u get the flush and the other player buys the full, and now tell me, can u get away from the nut flush easily!?

[fluff]

Damn, I didn't think of that! Can't believe I didn't see that!

You're right, in situations like this (TPTK, with nut flush draw, up against a possible set), you are a HUGE underdog because even if you make your nutflush you're going to get beat by a full house, and should probably fold. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Warik]

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true, but the problem is, that there are occasions, where u get the flush and the other player buys the full, and now tell me, can u get away from the nut flush easily!?

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You're not supposed to get away from the nut flush in limit games. If you're going to fold or play passively with the nut flush just because someone MIGHT have a full house, it's best to just not play.

I don't think I'd be incorrect to say that it is +EV to ramg & jam a river that pairs the board and also makes your nut flush. Most of the time you will be up against a smaller flush, two pair, a straight, or something like that. The few times that you are up against a full house will cost you 4BB and the sum of all the times you AREN'T up against a full house will win you tons of BB that will far outweigh the BB lost betting against the new nuts.

And 2.35:1 is not a huge dog by any stretch of the imagination. My definition of "huge dog" varies with the size of the pot, number of players, and how many cards are to come. If I'm faced with a decision where the action with the highest EV is folding (+0 EV), then you can call yourself a huge dog. If it's multiway and there are 20BB in pot and you're drawing at a gutshot to the nuts, are you going to fold? Not me.

If you don't have the absolute best hand at all times, you are always the underdog. Whether you're a "huge" underdog depends on whether or not you have the odds to play on. If you do, you're not. If you don't, you are, and should fold.

[WyattErb]

please dont get me wrong, i wouldnt fold the nut flush, only because the board pairs, but the fact is, that when u have the nut flush draw, with the top pair, and somebody flopped a set, u r very likely to lose! think about it....not only can the suit that u need make him a full house, also think about what if u make trips? lets take the example from before: AJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the flop comes J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif what do u do, when the turn is the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif? u got top trips and he got the full house! dont tell me u wont give the other guys shitloads of action!!! lets just put it that way, u r an underdog with outs, but lots of ur outs also make ur opponent a better hand than urs!

[Warik]

Of course I'll give him lots of action. I have top trips and the nut flush draw, and now I have outs to a full house.

I don't understand the topic of this discussion. You asked: "is Sklansky wrong?" About what? About the person in the example NOT being a huge underdog? Well, he's not wrong. He's 2.35:1 and will have more than sufficient odds to continue playing. He's an underdog, but not a huge one.

The best hand at any given time has a chance of being drawn out on, and there could be a chance that the card that makes your hand makes someone else's hand... like fullhouse over flush. Doesn't mean we fold or slowdown when we have top pair and a draw to the nuts.

You make your money when you play your good hands aggressively and other people miss their draws. If you don't play your good hands aggressively, you will lose money when they do make their hands and you won't win much when they don't. You'll be a tight-passive player rather than a tight-aggressive player.

[fluff]

Sure he gets action in that scenario. Suppose he has 88, but then on the river another J comes or a 4, or an A! Who is top dog now, huh? Damn straight, I am! And I have all that action!

[pudley4]

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please dont get me wrong, i wouldnt fold the nut flush, only because the board pairs, but the fact is, that when u have the nut flush draw, with the top pair, and somebody flopped a set, u r very likely to lose! think about it....not only can the suit that u need make him a full house, also think about what if u make trips? lets take the example from before: AJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the flop comes J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif what do u do, when the turn is the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif? u got top trips and he got the full house!

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Do you not understand that the 2.3-1 odds of winning takes all of these scenraios into account?

Do you not realize that AJ vs 88 on J 8 4 J board still gives you seven outs to a bigger full house or quads?

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dont tell me u wont give the other guys shitloads of action!!!

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So if you have 44 in late position and everyone has called - are you going to fold preflop because you might flop a set when someone else flops a bigger set and you'll lose a lot of money? Or if the flop comes 654, are you going to fold because someone might have a straight and you'll lose a lot of money?

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lets just put it that way, u r an underdog with outs, but lots of ur outs also make ur opponent a better hand than urs!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is 100% incorrect.

In your example (A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif vs 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif flop J /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif), there are no cards that could come on the turn that would give you the flush and give your opponent a full house.

(And if you do hit the flush on the turn, there are only 9 cards left for him to hit the full house/quads on the river.)

[dansalmo]

[MicroBob]

"In your example (A J vs 8 8 flop J 8 4 ), there are no cards that could come on the turn that would give you the flush and give your opponent a full house. "


oh yeah??? what if another jack of diamonds comes on the turn??? there's your flush and he it a full-boat?? what about that possibility?? didn't consider that did you tough guy??

then again, you would STILL have outs because if ANOTHER jack of diamonds comes on the river then you have quads and the other guy only has jacks-over....so it's not so bad afterall.



by the way, i'm a huge dog if i'm looking for a gut-shot straight and the pot is only laying me 5:1 odds.
i'm NOT a huge dog if the pot is laying me 12:1 odds to make the same call.
i'm a huge-dog if i have 77 on a board of AK98 and i bet into a small-ish pot hoping to hit my 2-outer.
i'm NOT a huge-dog if the pot is laying me 25:1 odds to call and i have reason to believe i'm not already up against higher-trips (maybe 4 different players decided to cap pre-flop in the dark...i've seen it happen).

huge-dog is dependent on the pot-size in my view.
however, 2.5:1 or 2.38:1 or whatever is NOT a huge-dog...unless you are in a race in a NL-tourney, are already-all-in, and are one of the broadcaster trying to hype-up the action.

[WyattErb]

yep, u r right...in limit games is this automatic to call, but think about u play in a pot limit game...anyways, i dont like to be up against a set with top pair and nut flush draw!

[pudley4]

You're either a huge dog or you're not.

If you're 100-1 against hitting/winning, you're a huge dog.

If the pot is offering 1000-1, you're still a huge dog, but at least you have a positive expectation. /images/graemlins/grin.gif