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View Full Version : Good flop not good enough?


citizenkn
03-07-2004, 08:00 PM
$5 SNG at Poker Room, blinds 25-50. I have a big chip lead (4500 or so, 2nd stack is about 3000) I'm dealt Jh-Ah on the button. MP (stack of 1500 or so) raises to 125, LP calls, I call, SB calls, four to the flop.

Flop comes 4h-9h-Jc. I couldn't ask for a better flop---TPTK and the nut flush draw. Checked to initial raiser, who bets half his stack. Up to this point he had been very quiet, rarely raising, and almost never betting significantly into a pot. I call, everyone else folds. Next card is a rag, and he bets the rest of his stack. I put him on a big pair (QQ-KK-AA) and fold.

At what point did I screw this up?

a. Shouldn't have called the initial raise to begin with
b. should have folded to his bet on the flop
c. should have raised him all in on the flop
d. should have called his all in on the turn

NotMitch
03-07-2004, 08:24 PM
I would fold this preflop because I'm on my new tight is awesome kick. Too many hands that dominate you for my liking, but if you can get away from it when an A or J flops and are facing a large bet go ahead and play it.

On the flop reraise him all in and its not close. You are a favorie over KK and QQ, and are going to win 43% of the time even if he has AA. The only hands you are really far behind are sets. Plus even if you lose you still have a very good stack with T3000. So get it all in on the flop right away.

aces_full
03-08-2004, 01:41 PM
If you are the chip leader, I don't think there was anything wrong with calling a bet of 2.5XBB. It's not a substantial bet. You have an ace, and it is suited, and with AJ you also have the remote chance of a straight. Your opponent may have AA-QQ, AK, or since this is a $5 tournamnet, ATs, or maybe even a small pair. You like the flop, TP/TK with the nut flush draw. If I were your opponent, and I held AA-QQ I wouldn't be too happy about the possible flush draw on the board. I would do exactly as he did and put a lot of chips in to discourage drawing hands from trying to take the pot.

This is a case, in the words of many poker authors, where if you are considering calling his bet, ask yourself why folding or raisng is not a better option. If you call, you pretty much have to be committed to the river anyway, so why not raise all-in? You are giving your opponent a chance to release his hand, however he has already committed half his chips to the pot, so it's not very likely he won't call. Then it becomes a race to the river to see who wins. Or you could simply fold, you have only put 125 chips in, and the 500 chips he wins will still keep his stack less than half of yours.

citizenkn
03-08-2004, 03:33 PM
In low buy-in SNG's, I see far too many early chip leaders lose their advantage by getting greedy and trying to knock out the entire table on their own with mediocre hands (calling all-ins with small pairs and weak aces, etc).

I'm not sorry I called the initial raise, but my flop play was bad. Cold calling the flop bet was the worst thing I could do. If I had it to do over again, I would have folded on the flop (even if I was a slight statistical favorite to win the hand). With a big chip lead, the last thing I want to do is double someone up, especially someone who would be close to even with me if he won the hand. I'd rather wait for a bigger edge, and my big chip lead gives me plenty of time to wait for those opportunities.

NotMitch
03-08-2004, 03:57 PM
If you arent willing to play that flop, don't play AJs preflop. What else were you looking to hit on the flop?

citizenkn
03-08-2004, 05:22 PM
It's not that I'm not willing to play the flop, it's that I don't want to play that hand against that much action post flop. On the button, I don't mind seeing a flop with a mediocre A-J against a relatively small 2.5x raise. If an ace hits and there's a lot of action before it gets to me, I can fold with a relatively secure knowledge that my kicker is no good (especially if the raise comes from a very tight player).

In this case, if the initial raiser's post-flop betting had been weaker, I would have played the hand much more aggressively, since up to this point he had not been aggressive at all unless he had a monster hand (on an earlier hand he had made a 4xBB raise UTG, then check/folded when an ace and a king came on the flop). But his half-stack bet on the flop was screaming that the jack on the board didn't bother him at all (I think the two hearts on the board scared him worse). Therefore, given the nature of my oppponent, I felt that folding TPTK was a good move, even with the flush draw.

NotMitch
03-08-2004, 05:32 PM
If you are going to pass up situations where you are getting more than even money when you are likely to be a favorite against a stack that can't cripple you I think you are playing very bad poker.

jedi
03-08-2004, 08:45 PM
[ QUOTE ]

In this case, if the initial raiser's post-flop betting had been weaker, I would have played the hand much more aggressively, since up to this point he had not been aggressive at all unless he had a monster hand (on an earlier hand he had made a 4xBB raise UTG, then check/folded when an ace and a king came on the flop). But his half-stack bet on the flop was screaming that the jack on the board didn't bother him at all (I think the two hearts on the board scared him worse). Therefore, given the nature of my oppponent, I felt that folding TPTK was a good move, even with the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

You never know. The raiser might be overplaying AK. I've tried this move before, usually with little success.

cferejohn
03-08-2004, 09:20 PM
Any of b, c, or d would have been better than what you did. Personally, I'd raising all-in on that flop bet. I'm feel pretty good about having the best hand now, and even if I don't I have any heart, probably two jacks, and possibly three aces as outs.