interesting PLO hand

[crockpot]

note: crossposted on PL/NL forum.

i wasn't sitting when i witnessed this hand, but i'll put you in the driver's seat.

1/2 PLO. three callers in front of you, all on short money. you have everyone covered and 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the button. your move?

the button raised pot. big blind ($313) calls, two of the three short stacks call as well.

flop: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

big blind bets pot (~$55), short stack 1 calls all in for about $40, short stack 2 folds. your move?

[Buzz]

Crock - Interesting post. Thanks for cross posting it here. I rarely get over to the pot/no-limit forum.

Do you put Big Blind on a hand that fits the flop for the pot sized bet on the second beting round - or do you figure Big Blind for a bluff? Then Caller, completely out of position, goes all-in. Do you give Caller credit for a decent fit with the flop here or not?

The question foremost in my mind is “Do you put your two opponents on decent flop fits for their actions or not?”

I don’t really have any idea. If you do put them on decent flop fits, let’s give BB 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif and let’s give Caller 6/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif. If you do that, they’re all over Button’s outs and Button is the underdog to either one of them and to both of them. Or we could devise other hands for them (that would still fit the flop) such that Button would not so much of an underdog, or might even be favored.

This is a good flop for Button, with flopped top set and nut straight draw. IMHO, Button should not be playing T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif as a starting hand to begin with, if not prepared to play to a flop like this. Thus if Button is going to play the hand to begin with, I think Button has to at least call the pot sized bet and “take one off” to see the turn. Having decided to see the next card, the next question is, does Button want to raise here?

BB either has something or not. Since Caller is already all-in, a pot sized raise here will accomplish nothing. Why? Because of the amount of money BB has left to wager on this hand. If BB is bluffing, then Button will get no more than the amount already in the pot (because BB will fold to the raise). If BB has something, then BB probably will still call a pot sized bet on the next betting round, and will probably go all-in there or on the river. In any event, Button will not be able to get more than BB has. Thus there is no hurry with a bet to put BB all-in or practically all-in. Button can afford to see the turn and then re-assess the situation.

Therefore I vote for a call here from Button.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[crockpot]

though i'm a little disappointed in the lack of responses (maybe sunday was just a slow day), i posted this here largely because i wanted input from you and Rolf (or a debate if i was lucky).

folding is pretty clearly wrong here. like you said, this is a good flop for the hand, and with a decent amount of money left to be bet, the implied odds make the hand at least worth a call. you can't assume the bettor is sitting on something like 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T J, which might make your hand a correct muck.

i believe the situation warrants a raise on sheer value if there is no two-flush on board. also, if the third player had money left, i would consider a raise. but here, the all-in player helps to protect the pot, making it very unlikely that the bettor will represent a flush that he doesn't have if a third heart turns.

so the main argument for raising now is that if you intend to call the turn bet anyway, you may lose your market if you hit. but with position, i think there is a good chance that you will win some additional money if a jack or seven hits. a board pair will probably kill your action unless it makes trips or a full house for the bettor. if you run into a lower set, raising is also the best play.

but if you call and a heart turns, you can pass a bet, content that you are losing without enough outs to continue. if the heart doesn't make him a flush, it will probably get you a free card since he will be afraid to bet.

the reason i posted this was to see some good debate on the merits of raising vs. calling, considering how deep the money is. on the actual hand, the player (who is easily one of ub's best plo players) raised the pot, and the early player reraised all in with J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. the third player showed A /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif. so except for the fact that no flush draw is out, the others are right about where you would normally put them.

any additional thoughts, anyone?

[crockpot]

twodimes gives the T988 a .560 ev on the sidepot, down to .503 if the other hand is given a heart draw. so the question is whether you want to sacrifice your positional advantage playing that edge, or wait until the turn when you can play more accurately.

[sam h]

Crock,

You've got to raise it up here on the flop. With top set and OESD, the made straight is going to have to have some serious sidecards to really have you in trouble. If you just call, too many cards either hurt your hand or kill your action.

I have seen so many PLO games online where hero is ahead here. Two pair for the BB and a heart draw for the short stack is pretty typical. And the BB will go to war with that two pair a lot too.

[Buzz]

Crock - Basically, Button will be getting about 2.7 to 1 pot odds for a call (opposed by two opponents) and even money for a raise (opposed by one opponent).
Here’s the math:
(55+55+40)/55 = ~2.7
205/205 = 1.

If we are agreed that button will at least call here, the question becomes: Is Button a favorite over BB or not? I can make up reasonable hands for BB where Button is a favorite, and I can make up reasonable hands for BB where Button is an underdog. Thus there seems no way to know. I like to bet when the odds are in my favor, not when I don’t know if they are in my favor or not.

[ QUOTE ]
you can't assume the bettor is sitting on something like 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gifTJ, which might make your hand a correct muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

We create an even worse situation for the 889T if we switch a seven for the jack, putting BB on something like 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif, and taking away one of the outs for the board to pair,. And the one hand is just as reasonable as the other (maybe even more reasonable as a starting hand, since it only has a single gap instead of a double gap).

However, I agree we can’t assume BB is sitting on a perfect oppositional hand.

Does BB call a pot sized bet on the third betting round if the board pairs? That seems to be what Button would be worried about if he rushes to put his money in the pot on the second betting round. Right?

If so, consider that the odds against the board pairing on the turn, from Button’s vantage point, are 38 to 7. Do we want to bet even money on a 5.4 to 1 shot?

Buzz

[Buzz]

Hi Sam -

What does OESD mean?

(one eyed straight draw can't be correct) /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
If you just call, too many cards either hurt your hand or kill your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems valid - but I'm not sure it applies here. (I'm not sure it doesn't apply either).

[ QUOTE ]
I have seen so many PLO games online where hero is ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The question in my mind is "is Hero ahead here or not?"

I don't see how you can know.

[ QUOTE ]
Two pair for the BB and a heart draw for the short stack is pretty typical. And the BB will go to war with that two pair a lot too.

[/ QUOTE ]

If BB has two pair, then (1) Hero's outs are reduced, and (2) BB will hang in there if the board does pair.

BB only has a certain amount of money left which is avaiable for this pot. Hero can still get all or most of it on the next betting round - and if most of it, Hero can still get it all by the river.

There's no hurry!

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Phat Mack]

If so, consider that the odds against the board pairing on the turn, from Button’s vantage point, are 38 to 7. Do we want to bet even money on a 5.4 to 1 shot?

Let's say button calls and raises the pot. He gets 2.7:1 for the call, but his raise is only meaningfull if he gets action from BB, otherwise he gets it back. So there's $150 in the pot when it gets to him, he puts in 55+205=260 and gets a call of 205, then he is betting 205 to make 150+205=355, or 1.4:1.

A $205 bet will put BB close to all in, so Button gets two cards to straighten or fill up. I vote for popping it. If BB is weak, he may call with an overpair and a flush draw. If BB is a strong player, he may lay down a straight if he has no redraws. Plus, Button is never going to get a better flop for this hand. Might as well get paid for it.

On the other hand, if button just calls, he will either hit his full and get no more action, in which case he paid 1:2.7 for a 5:1 shot--or BB will go all in, giving him 2:1 to draw again.

JMO

Mack

[Big Dave D]

A point that no one has considered yet is what happens to the action when a heart comes, but no one has it...basically the action goes dead. The BB checks and the buttons is probably rateful for a free card. This is ok when BB has the str8 but a disaster when he has two pair or a str8 drawing hand like 89tj. So this is really a play the player call - if he is one of those guys, and there are plenty of them online, that see every raise as aces and make plays on "missed" flops accordingly, then a raise is by far the best play. If he's a solid player then just call. But in general I dont think the difference on these two plays is going to make a huge difference in the long term, as both are ok.

[DanS]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Sam -

What does OESD mean?


[/ QUOTE ]

Buzz,
Open Ended Straight Draw.

Dan

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say button calls and raises the pot. He gets 2.7:1 for the call, but his raise is only meaningful if he gets action from BB, otherwise he gets it back. So there's $150 in the pot when it gets to him, he puts in 55+205=260 and gets a call of 205, then he is betting 205 to make 150+205=355, or 1.4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mack - I see what you’re doing. You can add it all together if you want. However, in truth, assuming Button puts $260 in the pot and thus makes a maximum raise, Button is getting different odds for the first $55 than for the remaining $205.

The reason is, Button doesn’t have to put $260 in the pot. Button can either put $55 in the pot or can put ($205+$55) in the pot.

Assuming BB calls a maximum raise, and assuming Button wins, Button is getting $150 for ($55 of the $260 bet) and $205 for ($205 of the $260 bet).

As you know, when you raise the pot in pot limit there really are two distinct steps involved. You may push your money in all at once, but it’s figured as a two step process: (1) the amount it would cost you to call is added to what is already in the pot. (2) the total value of the pot after step one is how much you can raise.

Since it’s a two step process, I think you should figure the odds for each step separately.

You can add it all together if you want, but I think you get a clearer picture if you consider the $55 separately from the $205.

[ QUOTE ]
A $205 bet will put BB close to all in, so Button gets two cards to straighten or fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
I vote for popping it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, evidently, does everybody else but me.

[ QUOTE ]
If BB is weak, he may call with an overpair and a flush draw. If BB is a strong player, he may lay down a straight if he has no redraws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two good points, in my humble opinion.

(1) “If BB is weak, he may call with an overpair and a flush draw.”

It’s difficult to read a poor player, it’s difficult to know what a poor player will do and there are various types of poor players. I wonder how much more likely any particular poor player is to call a pot-sized raise with an overpair and a flush draw on the second betting round than to call a pot-sized bet on the third betting round. You may (probably do) have a clearer feeling for this than I do.

My original thinking was that it wouldn’t make much of a difference, that a poor playing opponent would be about as likely to make a bad call on fourth street as on third street. But maybe it does make a difference. Maybe Button would miss a bet by not making the $205 raise here. Maybe a poor player would call the raise but not call a bet on the next betting round.

But on the other hand, maybe the poor player would fold to a pot sized raise on the second betting round but would call a bet of the same amount, or even make a bet of the same amount on the third betting round. Maybe by just calling here, Button would induce a poor but overly aggressive player to bet on the third betting round, even if the board paired.

And there’s no guarantee a poor player would have an overpair and a flush draw. What if the poor player only has a straight, and plans to go all-in if possible on the second betting round, but will check and fold to a bet if the board pairs or flushes on the turn. In that case, if the board flushed on the turn and the poor player checked, Button could bet and induce the poor player to fold a straight. In other words, the raise with no flush on the board might not get the poor player to fold the flopped straight, but a pot sized bet on the next betting round, after the board flushed might do the trick. But any such 3rd betting round play using position evaporates when Button forces BB all-in on the 2nd betting round.

There are a lot of possibilities here, aren’t there? But Button loses all that third betting round positional leverage when he makes the big bet on the second betting round. Make the big bet on the second betting round and you’re reducing the advantage of superior skill. You’re just gambling.

Think of it this way. Don’t you hate it when you have a mediocre but playable starting hand and a poor playing opponent goes all in before the flop? You’re forced to make a guess after seeing only four cards and having no idea how your hand will fit with the flop. You’d much rather look at the flop and be able to make a more intelligent decision about where to wager your money - but instead, you either gamble or you don’t.

On the other hand, if you were playing a world champion with an incredibly analytical mind, wouldn’t you like to get all your money in early and take away some of the skill advantage of your world class opponent?

(2) “If BB is a strong player, he may lay down a straight if he has no redraws.”

Assuming BB is a player who would lay down a straight with no re-draws, is BB any more likely to fold on the second betting round than on the third? In this case, if a scare card appears on the turn, BB would seem even more likely to lay down the straight. On the other hand, if a neutral card appears on the turn, whether BB bets or not, Button has more information to process in making an intelligent decision.

[ QUOTE ]
Plus, Button is never going to get a better flop for this hand. Might as well get paid for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do agree this is a good flop for Button’s hand. I do agree with getting pair for it.

But there are things that can go wrong for Button on the turn. Assuming Button is the more skilled player, seeing one more card may make a big ($205) difference. For example, I think one might make a strong argument for folding T988 to a pot sized bet from BB if the turn here is any heart but a five. (Admittedly all these things depend on your assessment of BB).

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand, if button just calls, he will either hit his full and get no more action.......or BB will go all in, giving him 2:1 to draw again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your experience with pot limit play puts you way ahead of me in having a feeling for what BB will do. It’s honestly not at all clear to me what BB will do if the board pairs (or flushes) on the turn. Will BB, assuming that Button has made a full house or better, check and fold a flopped straight to a bet from Button? With an overpair plus a flopped straight will BB make a praying call?

Or, based on the betting, I can visualize a hand BB could be holding where BB would make a full house (but a losing one) if the board pairs. There seem lots of possibilities to me.

I’ve argued with you here, but I can see the advantages you have clearly pointed out for making a pot sized raise on the second betting round. (However, I also can see, and hope I have pointed out, possible advantages to waiting one more round and then possibly out-playing BB).

regards,

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
what happens to the action when a heart comes, but no one has it...basically the action goes dead. The BB checks and the buttons is probably grateful for a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Big Dave - Maybe.

I think what Button should do here depends on Button's assessment of BB.

Some players slow play hands when they make their draws. If BB is one of these players, then Button should be grateful for the free card.

Other players bet when they make their draws. If BB is one of these players, then when BB checks to Button, Button should assume BB must have either (1) flopped a straight with no flush draw, (2) flopped a full house draw with no flush draw, or (3) BB's pot-sized bet on the second betting round was an attempt to steal the pot.

Button has position and gets to act after BB. If BB is a player who would bet a flush made on the turn, and if BB (1) flopped a straight with no flush draw, then BB (if not purely stupid) will be hard pressed to call a pot sized bet on the third betting round after the board flushes.

A very difficult aspect of this analysis for me is I don't know how BB plays. If nothing else, this post accents the need for knowing how your opponents play.

[ QUOTE ]
if he is one of those guys...that see every raise as aces and make plays on "missed" flops accordingly, then a raise is by far the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how it follows that a raise here is the best play. Keep in mind that there are many other hands BB could have. But, even if holding 89TJ, does it follow that BB would fold to a raise on the second betting round? And should Button even want someone with 89TJ folding to a bet on the second betting round? (I agree 889T doesn't want to see a nine or a ten on the turn against 89TJ - but all the other cards are good for 889T). How about sucking in (for another bet) someone, who has 89TJ and who's putting you on aces?

But more importantly, there are many other hands BB could have here, other than 89TJ - hands that actually make BB the favorite.

As it turns out BB didn't have one of them. That info is filed for the future, but doesn't help Button on this hand - unless Button already knows how BB plays. On the basis of Crock's assessment of Button, I suspect Button might have already known how BB plays.

Without that knowledge, we can't tell, on the basis of the betting, who is the favorite here: Button or BB. If BB actually is the favorite, do you think Button does better by putting in a raise and trying to blow BB away on the second betting round, or might Button do better by simply calling, and then, depending on the turn card and also depending on BB's action at the start of the third betting round, making a more informed, more intelligent decision after BB has acted on the third betting round?

(I don't know the answer, Dave. Maybe Button loses a bet by not raising on the second betting round - or maybe Button either gains a bet or saves a bet by not raising on the second betting round).

[ QUOTE ]
"if he is one of those guys, and there are plenty of them online, that see every raise as aces and make plays on "missed" flops accordingly"

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the interesting insight into how some people play. I'm always wondering what my opponents might be thinking.

Buzz

[Big Dave D]

"I don't see how it follows that a raise here is the best play. Keep in mind that there are many other hands BB could have. But, even if holding 89TJ, does it follow that BB would fold to a raise on the second betting round? And should Button even want someone with 89TJ folding to a bet on the second betting round?"

Buzz, you dont want them to pass and by and large the run-of-the-mill online plo player simply will not. He will put you on AA or at best AA with a flush draw and shovel all his stack in. So you raise the weaker players not because you want them to pass, but because you will lose the market, potentially, if a flush or pair up comes. You would be surprised how thin people will call in plo games online.

gl

dd

[Phat Mack]

Buzz, Excellent post! I've learned another way to think about odds...

As you know, when you raise the pot in pot limit there really are two distinct steps involved. You may push your money in all at once, but it’s figured as a two step process: (1) the amount it would cost you to call is added to what is already in the pot.

Right. Once this money goes in, it's gone; dead money. I consider it a "sunk cost."

(2) the total value of the pot after step one is how much you can raise.

Right. There's 205 in the pot, and that's what I can fire at it.

Since it’s a two step process, I think you should figure the odds for each step separately.

This is actually what I do, but I come up with a different answer. As you point out, betting 205 will bring an additional 205 to the pot, if called, for a ratio of 1:1 (my bet to additional money). But I consider the pot as a "sunk cost," so my bet is 205 to win the 205 pot plus the 205 called: 205 to win 410, or 2:1. I think of it as 2:1 for my 205 bet but it may be a psychological figure, rather than a mathematical one. Mathematically, it is probably between the two figures.

It should be noted that BB IS getting 2:1 to call, which is what he is thinking in a PL game (or should be) and either the next bet to come at him will be for three times that amount, or if he bets, will offer his opponent 2:1 or better. (He's close to all in here.)

It’s difficult to read a poor player, it’s difficult to know what a poor player will do and there are various types of poor players. I wonder how much more likely any particular poor player is to call a pot-sized raise with an overpair and a flush draw on the second betting round than to call a pot-sized bet on the third betting round. You may (probably do) have a clearer feeling for this than I do.

Actually I don't. Each one is different. I do look for players who overplay big pairs, however, and it's nice to find them.

What if the poor player only has a straight, and plans to go all-in if possible on the second betting round, but will check and fold to a bet if the board pairs or flushes on the turn. In that case, if the board flushed on the turn and the poor player checked, Button could bet and induce the poor player to fold a straight. In other words, the raise with no flush on the board might not get the poor player to fold the flopped straight, but a pot sized bet on the next betting round, after the board flushed might do the trick. But any such 3rd betting round play using position evaporates when Button forces BB all-in on the 2nd betting round.

This is true, if I knew the player had a staight and no flush draw, and would check/fold a scare-card turn, I could bluff him out if a non-pairing flush card came. But generally I don't have this information and don't want to give him an opportunity to fold. I want his money. Good poker players who are new to PLO often don't recognize the need to fold the nuts on the flop, but are more likely to get away from their hands on later rounds. BTW, I'm not saying BB should fold here, but if he had a thousand more in chips in front of him, he would have problems.

But Button loses all that third betting round positional leverage when he makes the big bet on the second betting round. Make the big bet on the second betting round and you’re reducing the advantage of superior skill. You’re just gambling.

"Just gambling" is a little strong, but these are good points. If I was reading BB well from the button, it would behoove me to bide my time, but as you point out...

On the other hand, if you were playing a world champion with an incredibly analytical mind, wouldn’t you like to get all your money in early and take away some of the skill advantage of your world class opponent?

Well said, and true when against extremely bad players as well as WC's. If I don't think I will know any more about my opponent after the flop, I might want to get my money in when I perceive an advantage, and add to my hand the advantage that being a bettor gives me.

Assuming BB is a player who would lay down a straight with no re-draws, is BB any more likely to fold on the second betting round than on the third?

If a neutral card hit the turn, he'd be less likely to surrender.

I do agree this is a good flop for Button’s hand.

I sort of regret bringing this up. Not letting go of a hand because of hitting the flop hard is, how shall we put this, a leak. I was implying that it wasn't, which, as my wife likes to point out, is "simply wrong, dear."

For example, I think one might make a strong argument for folding T988 to a pot sized bet from BB if the turn here is any heart but a five. (Admittedly all these things depend on your assessment of BB).

Yeah, it would be tough to stand much pressure if the heart comes, especially in omaha: ten outs out of 44 unknowns and a 2:1 bet coming at you. This leads to the crux of my argument. If a heart comes when I haven't raised on the flop, I have to make a decision and I might make the wrong one. If I raise the flop, my opponent makes the decision and he might make a wrong one. So much in poker is solved my betting!

I'll add one last thought. A lot of my PL bet and raise ammounts are intended to manipulte the pot size so as to get my opponent all in if I have the goods. This may be coloring my thinking on this hand. With different amounts in front of us, I might think differently. It's impossible to know what is correct without being at the table and experiencing the players.

As always,

Mack

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
"Just gambling" is a little strong

[/ QUOTE ]

Mack - Yeah. Sorry. I honestly didn't mean it to be that strong. I should have chosen my words more carefully.

[ QUOTE ]
This leads to the crux of my argument. If a heart comes when I haven't raised on the flop, I have to make a decision and I might make the wrong one. If I raise the flop, my opponent makes the decision and he might make a wrong one. So much in poker is solved my betting!

[/ QUOTE ]

I get it. And that, in my humble opinion, is a very strong argument for raising on the second betting round. Indeed, in my humble opinion, that makes the case for raising!

Thanks, as always, for your well thought out response.

Buzz

[luckycharms]

You hit your flop.

You have the nuts, and the nut straight draw. Make your move. The heart could be a killer, but it could also pair the board.