where I get lost when reading DAVID SKLANSKY

[Mikey]

ok, here is where I get lost....

"When you think your opponent might beat you, even if you make your hand, you must adjust your odds of winning before comparing them to the pot odds you are getting. Let's say you are a 5 to 1 underdog to make your hand, and you are getting 7 to 1 from the pot. On the surface, your hand is worth a call. But suppose you feel there is a 30 percent chance your opponent will make a hand that beats the one you are trying to make. Should you still call??"

Here is where I get hazy..... "SUPPOSE YOU FEEL THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE YOUR OPPONNENT WILL MAKE A HAND THAT BEATS THE ONE YOU ARE TRYING TO MAKE"

I don't understand the context of the word "feel" in that sentence.

Also I don't understand how I can incorporate 30% into a poker equation and not some other percentage.

By the way I pulled this from "Poker Gaming and Life" on pg.67

[cepstrum]

Hi Mikey -

Substitute "think," "estimate," or some other word for "feel" if it makes things easier. Sklansky isn't talking about "feel for the game" necessarily; he's talking about reading hands and thinking about what's going to happen.

Anyway, if you are a 5-1 dog, that means you are going to make your hand 1 time in 6, or 16.67%, right? And if there is a 30% chance that your opponent has that draw beat already, or will beat that draw, now you're happy only .1667 x .7 = 11.7% of the time, right? So now getting 7-1 doesn't look so hot, because it looks like you're not a 5-1 dog to win the hand, but more like 7.5-1.

I'm not sure what you mean by your second question about incorporating 30% and not some other percentage. Do you mean, "How do I come up with 30%," or something else?

Good luck

cepstrum

[uuDevil]

Mikey,

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Also I don't understand how I can incorporate 30% into a poker equation and not some other percentage.


[/ QUOTE ]
If your problem is the same as mine, cepstrum gave a good answer. For me, confusion arises right away because Sklansky tends to mix his use of probabilities, percentages, and odds. Fine for a mathematician, but for ordinary mortals who are trying to understand new concepts, it would be better to be consistent. Maybe it is a way of saying "can you see why?" to force us to go through the math ourselves.

As for where the specific percentage comes from, experience tells you that in these circumstances, against this type of opponent, such-and-such a situation will occur about so often (30%). This is just a guesstimate.

David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth have written great poker books. That's different from being great writers (if I recall correctly they actually acknowledge this).

[Anadrol 50]

Just go to the back of the book and read the story of the robots....

[EVIL]

[ QUOTE ]

Also I don't understand how I can incorporate 30% into a poker equation and not some other percentage.


[/ QUOTE ]
The 30% value he uses is just an example. Depending on the situation, it could be any value between 0% and 100%.