15/30 Laying down a set on the turn?

[DcifrThs]

Here's something i would never have considered in my earlier times playing this game. but i played a hand where it was a legitimate concern.

fairly tight party game (going through a tight spell) all fold to me 3 or 4 off button with 88. i raise hoping to just take the blinds next hand. button reraises. now button i have not seen in any pots...in fact, this may be the first time he's raised, bet or called (other than in the sb or bb) in about 2 or 3 rounds (even when the game was loose he still wasn't too involved). blinds fold.

flop Qh8d3c, wow...i think i must be dreaming lol. i bet expecting to be raised by his kk, aa, aq, aks or whatever. he JUST calls!!! uh, oh...for some reason i immediately think he may have the ladies! i dont know why but just something in my gut says hes got em but i'm gunna play the hand as if he didn't for now.

turn comes kh. i bet, he raises. now i think its likely that he might have had aks and hit his king. i make it 3 bets back to him and he CAPS!!

[explative deleted]...who lays this hand down here and save 2 bets???

i didn't, i called and c-c'd river to see his QQ.

my gut said be careful after he just called after not being in any pots for a long time and then threebetting preflop and jst calling the flop.

COMMENTS PLEASE!!
-Barron

[astroglide]

not only would i call the turn without a second thought, i would bet the river and call a raise back.

[Diplomatdcm]

I think you played it well, and he will have AK, AQ, or AA enough to make it worth calling the river.

[DcifrThs]

normally thats what i would do but in this hand i just had a 'feeling.'

it resulted from this guys noticably tight play and the fact that he just called the flop and i guess me possibly having a defeatist attitude here. but when he called on the flop something inside me said hes got queens!!! the poker player inside me then slapped the person who said hes got queens and said, "what did the 5 fingers say tot he face??-SLAP!" lol, no seriously though, the poker player said 'snap out of it, are you really gunna underplay your monster here because you have some willy nilly "feeling"?'

at that point i 'snapped out of it' and bet raised and called but after the cap i had to revisit my initial feeling about what he had...maybe its just one of those things but for some reason that initial read was dead on and i consciously chose not to listen because it would SUCk to be wrong andunderplay a hand you don't get too often.

What do you think?
-Barron

[astroglide]

if i thought he had queens that much, i would call the turn and check/call the river. there's virtually no way i would make this fold online, and it would be *EXTREMELY* rare of me to do it in-person.

cocaine is a hell of a drug...

i got my chappelle's show box set in the mail from comedy central. great stuff, but i'm really looking forward to season 2 on dvd. funniest show on television for my money.

[glen]

". . .i would bet the river and call a raise back."

I don't get this thinking. Even if he has AK or AA here, he is still going to bet the river, but you are not going to get raised unless you are beat, unless he's a tool, of course.

[astroglide]

i've been raised on the river by much worse. sets aren't that common, and set-over-set is even less so. if i bet, get raised, and lose to a set i think, 'well that sucks'. i would feel dumb if he checked through or i check/called a worse hand.

[secret156]

I agree about calling the turn, but I'm less sure about betting out on the river. I'm just trying to put him on possible hands here. The original post said that the guy seemed to be fairly tight. So, he probably doesn't have KQ because not only would he not have 3-bet it pre-flop, but even if we assume that he would 3-bet it pre-flop, he would almost certainly raise on the flop with that. So, what else could he have? AK and AQ are quite possible. The only question is whether he would cap the turn with AQ. Almost certainly not. How about AK? Maybe, but unlikely. Now we come to big pairs like AA, KK, QQ, and JJ. He certainly won't play JJ this way. But the pattern of play certainly fits KK and QQ! It also fits AA, except for perhaps the turn cap (really depends on how the opponent plays). I would say that our hero now has to seriously consider the possibility that the opponent has either KK or QQ.

Having said all that, I would call the turn and check-call the river. Comments? Where am I going wrong here?

[DcifrThs]

Careful now!! you're encroaching on blasphemy here as you are talking to a huge simpsons/family guy buff!! 'funniest show on tv'??? ummmmm, its good, but not THAT good.

in any case i couldn't bring myself to fold and i shouldn't have. but what if...and this is a BIIIG "WHAT IF"...i could be correct like that more often?? imagine how many bets id save (assuming i was right enough to compensate for the few times id be wrong and cost a pot plus many bets) if i could be right like this a whole lot in many different instances....

either Sklansky or Malmuth discuss how great players got to be great players (i'm sure they both agree with whatever the other said here so i'll attribute it to both of 'em). in that essay it is said that great players say you need to be tight but aggressive...S&M then ask how many times did the 'great players' really follow their own advice?? meaning that in order to GET TO BE great players, they had to have played loose at some point to get to know what it feels like to be in danger a lot.

one way to be in danger a lot is playing any pair at any time...that way you'll see set over set much more often. but unfortunately by the time you know, all your money'll be gone from playing 22 UTG against aggressive players.

i was HOPING and PRAYING that somebody would tell me to lay it down so i could mentally imagine what it would be like to be able to make that kind of correct laydown in other situations and thus be like the great psychic of party poker 15/30 lol...

i guess i was in a dream world for a little bit and i'm sure i played it like many many many people would...boo hoo right?

-Barron

[astroglide]

you wouldn't have to be wrong very often for folding here to be a signifigant mistake. i don't see what the obsession is with heroic folds - i would much rather earn my "expert money" with value betting and still see a showdown with my great (but still possibly losing) hands.

[DcifrThs]

HEY!! we both know you're right. we both know i did the right thing...but can't a man dream!??? huh? i mean come on...why rain on my parade like that lol

of course those 'feelings' are gunna be wrong sometimes and the times they are, its like giving away the family jewels for fity cents. ouch...but imagine if you can get away from every set over set you ever face ;-) hmmm....not such a craaazy dream now ...

ok, ok..i'm done now...shackled back to reality by the probabilistic nature of our mutual endeavor...thanks for the responses and you best recognize the simpsons and family guy along with chapelle(sp?).

also, do you play party poker 15/30 under "astroglide"? (if you'd rather PM me about this so the whole world doesn't have to see thats fine and i'll let you know my name or handle or whatever)

-Barron

[astroglide]

no, i don't use the name astroglide. i use 2 different names because i play 6 tables at once. afaik, only one person on 2+2 knows what they are.

[DcifrThs]

what is "afaik"...or is that the one person who knows?
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

what is "afaik"...or is that the one person who knows?
-Barron

[astroglide]

http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=afaik

[risen]

Thank you astro, next to the people lecturing fish on how to play the game 'correctly', 'The Legendary Heroic Expert Laydown Master' is my most hated type of advanced player. We all know it feels good when you lay down a losing monster, it makes you feel like you actually know what you're doing in this game. But unless you're playing No Limit ring or tourney, it is rarely correct to lay down a possible winning poker hand on the river at least. You are more than likely getting more than 10 to 1 odds on a check call, being wrong about your opponent even once in a while is quite a mistake, and not that our original poster did it, but often 'experts' will announce what a monster they laid down, and cause the table to take many more shots at pots they may have given to you before.

[Kenrick]

I think Major Kong posted a similar thing in the microlimits forum a few months back. "Limit Holdem is simply not a game of tough laydowns." That's also one of the better things I got out of Phil Hellmuth's book, when he says he's a calling station on the river.

I doubt I would have reraised the guy if I had the same read on him as you did, but no way am I laying down a set against one opponent. Lots of guys try to get tricky here and only have something like AQ.