Small Pocket Pairs

[southerndog]

Are hands like two's and three's almost not worth playing when you consider the times the flop does hit you, and you end up running into a bigger set? How are people who are using poker tracker doing with these hands?

[cepstrum]

hi southerndog -

hitting the flop with your small pair and running into a higher set is quite a parlay. you are only going to flop your set 11.5% of the time, and so is the other guy. this makes set-over-set happen about 1.3% of the time that you are dealt dueces against one opponent, but only in case he also holds a pair - so it's a lot more rare than 1.3% of the time. obviously, as your pair gets bigger, the probability of being on the wrong end of set-over-set gets smaller, and as the number of opponents increases, the probability gets larger. so don't worry too much about set-over-set when deciding to play these tiny pairs. it happens, but it's rare. worry instead about whether your implied odds are there if you hit.

good luck

cepstrum

[southerndog]

Cepstrum,

Thanks for the reply. Your advice seems sound.

[ColoradoHarv]

I'm not clear on this.

The odds of set over set on any given hand are .00600466 or about 1/167. (See Set Over Set (http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/))

However, the odds of set over set if one player has a set is .02467, or about 1 in 41. This is almost twice the percentage you state. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[cepstrum]

Hi Harv -

The number you quote from the article, ~2.46%, includes a full 5-card board, not just the flop. So there's probably nothing contradictory here.

Running through the calculations again, assuming that we are against exactly one pocket pair which is higher than ours...

There are 2 x 2 x 46 ways = 184 to have set-over-set on the flop.
There are 2 x 46C2 ways = 2070 to flop your set and not face a higher set.
There are 48C3 = 17296 to miss entirely.

So, of the 19550 ways for the flop to come, a shade less than one percent are set-over-set.

Good luck

cepstrum

[ZAC]

I don't know the math of set over set but it is rare enough for me to worry about. If I spike a set of 3's on a flop like A T 9 with 3 or 4 players on board, I'll jam it and pay the consequences. Seriously, I susbcribe to a HPFAP theory, (I can't exactly recall where in the book) that small pairs like 3's, need only a raiser and a caller to be playable. I don't have Poker Tracker, but in my experience, if played correctly, small pairs are profitable for me.

[LetsRock]

I don't think the big problem with small pairs is the set over set possibility. If you get your set, you're ususally in good shape (straights and flushes be damned!). The bigger problem with small pairs is that if they miss the set, they are pretty useless - there's not a lot of other ways for them to help. If you do get a straight flop (for example), you'll be on the low end of it and won't be confident that your cards are good.

They're best played from late position with lots of limpers ahead of you (at least 4) and with pretty good chances that it won't be raised. (If you have maniac to your left, fugetaboutem.)

If you're feeling really bold, you can try stealing the blinds with them from the button (if no one else has limped), but don't get carried away with this.

(In repsonse to one of the other posts, I'd sure like to see how you flop a set of 3s with a AT9 flop /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif)

[DcifrThs]

If you are playing 33 in late position after one limper and a raise (meaning you cold call) or a raise and one cold caller i think you are playing WAAAAYYY too loose unless these players are truly attrocious and will pay off to river without a doubt in your mind. it would take at least 88 or above for me to cold call in this instance and it would only happen with 88 or 99, tt i reraise but cold calling with less than 88 is a dangerous and expensive proposition...

obviously exceptions have to be made based on the game you're in but in general muck those 3's
-barron

[cepstrum]

ZAC -

According to the book, small pairs are only playable against a raiser and caller if you are in the big blind and not in general. It's a huge difference, as when you are in the bb you are getting 5-1 on your call (which is enough with your implied odds). You are only getting 2-1 when you call from late position, and your implied odds are all shot.

Good luck

cepstrum

[ZAC]

OK, I guess I'll have to brush up on HPFAP as I have not touched it in a while. Thanks.

[N4CER1]

You flop a set 1 in 8.5 times.....you see flop if it is unraised and either hit your set or muck after the flop...If you flop a set you are usually good....imo