Hypothetical Question - Your on the button in the WSOP

[SaintAces]

First hand and Scotty Nguyen goes over the top for 2.5k more of a no-namer's 1k raise. You see red cowboys staring at your. What do you do?

[TheGrifter]

Push.

[Gamblor]

Anyone who's raising 1K to win T75 in blinds has a monster.

Anyone who's reraising 2.5K on top of such a retarded raise has an even bigger monster. At best I'm tied, at worst I have $10K less than I started with.

I fold.

[daryn]

definitely push. he might even fold AA! hahaha... probably not, but think about it. you are scotty nguyen... do you really want to bust out on the first hand? you know you're better than most in the tourney.

of course he wouldn't fold AA but you gotta love a push here.

[SaintAces]

[Zonify]

I'd fold. IF you saw the hand of Varkyoni vs Nyugen when Ngyuen had AA, he played it like he had AA. Now, if Nyguen started talking and says to me "you can't call, it's too much for you", I'd call in a heartbeat /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SaintAces]

BLUFF!

"you can't call buddy... too... too... much for you"

And it worked!

[Nottom]

Yeah and if he ever tells you "If you call, its all over baby." you should immediately call.


Ummm ... or maybe not.

[daryn]

you gotta love nguyen!

[ZeeJustin]

If this was the 20th hand, it would be an easy fold. The no-namer could just be a known retard though, so I would probably shove here.

[LetsRock]

Against Nquyen (or another very solid player) I'd probably have to shove them in. He would definatly have the advantage in postflop play so I'd take the play out of the equation post flop. If he has AA, oh well. I seriously doubt a player of this caliber would put such a big raise on AA with such a small pot at stake.

If it's not a premier player, I'd probably call and see what the flop brings, ready to lay down if an Ace flops.

[scotnt73]

id push them all in

[spamuell]

If he has AA, oh well.

In a ring game, OK, rebuy, bla bla.

This is the Big One, 10k buy-in WSOP which happens only once a year and is a substantial amount of your bankroll! I'm impressed if you can feel this way.

Also, he's not calling with less than AA here.

[cepstrum]

Hi trh214 -

The more skilled you are in relation to the competition (i.e. the higher your expectation for the tournament), the more you want to fold. The less skilled you are, the more you want to push the stacks. Further, if there's a juicy sidegame where your hourly earn is higher than what you can expect to make in the tournament, the more you want to push the stacks.

I doubt my expectation in that tournament would be positive, especially sitting with Nguyen, so I might push the stacks.

Then again, Nguyen is certainly familiar with this concept, so I toss it in the muck and don't worry about it.

Good luck

cepstrum

[DanZ]

A player this good is going to risk his stack defending tiny blinds from a mammoth raise? This should be an automatic fold. See "Getting the best of it".

Dan Z.

[ElSapo]

I agree with Gamblor here that the initial raise is out of proportion to the blinds, to the extent that the re-raise absolutely must mean a monster.

[Wayne]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Gamblor here that the initial raise is out of proportion to the blinds, to the extent that the re-raise absolutely must mean a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could Scotty be bluffing here, trying to put a move on the no-namer raiser? Probably much more likely than AA. I'd be more afraid of what the no-namer is holding. I'd definately fold if Howard L. made the raise instead of Scotty.

I'm dead money at the WSOP. My EV is probably $50. Assume I triple up and my EV goes to $150 (or more). It is not worth risking going home on the first hand for another $100 of EV. I'd want to play at least a few hours at the WSOP, even if it meant giving up some EV. Easy fold for me here. Logically, I should fold AA as well, but I'd have a difficult time doing that.

If I wasn't dead money or was likely to play in the WSOP year after year, I probably would play KK here. Against Scotty, I'd call and be prepared to fold to an Ace on the flop. When Scotty bets (bluffs?) into me, I raise all-in. If Scotty checks to me, I make a weak bet (T2000?) to encourage Scotty to bluff checkraise me.

If the original no-name raiser goes all-in, I'd muck expecting him to have AA.

[Gamblor]

The first raise was so insanely large relative to the tiny blinds, that it screamed monster.

That someone, even Scotty, who's smart enough to know this, re-raised him, means we are all but cooked with KK, and not even a big enough favourite against AK to risk all of your chips on the first hand.

Fold.

[Jeremy'sSpoken]

How does whether or not its the first hand play a role in the decision making?

[slavic]

fold, your not going to call and try to bust him with his bet size and you know what he has. Heck he even put in a huge raise so that you would know what he has.

[umdpoker]

the problem with scotty nguyen is that he is a very good player that bluffs a lot. i remember him making some crazy moves on espn. he is very good at being overaggressive. he loves to steal pots from people he thinks are willing to fold. he absolutely will put a lot of his chips on the line at any time with anything. i think he put like a fifth of his chips in on a complete river bluff against sam farha. therefore, you can't read him. that means you have to play your cards. therefore, i push all in. hell, even if he has aa, you might suck out on him and then get to rag on him like he does to everybody after his crazy moves work. if you win this matchup with him, you might not have to deal with his crazy moves because he knows you'll fight back. oh yeah, the fact that i suck at nl might also have something to with my preference to go all in. if i doubled up i wouldn't have to deal with the possibility of losing all my chips for a while (well at least 2 hands).

[jasonHoldEm]

I push. I didn't pay $10,000 to fold [censored] cowboys. If Scotty has AA so be it, I got outs.

jHE

[HavanaBanana]

[ QUOTE ]
I push. I didn't pay $10,000 to fold [censored] cowboys. If Scotty has AA so be it, I got outs.

jHE

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

I'll fold, my 10k is worth maybe 15k so do not want in on this crapshoot.
If Jason was backing me 100%, ok I'll call /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[jasonHoldEm]

Heh...my $10k is worth about $1.63.

Of course if this really happened, the no-name would call me, Scotty would say "Aaaah...you got me baby" and fold, no-name would turn over AA and I'd be walking.

/images/graemlins/crazy.gif
jHE

[cepstrum]

Hi umdpoker -

Yes, Scotty is very good, and he makes lots of big moves. But I assure you that he is not going to put a lot of his chips on the line _at_any_time_ with anything. It's a huge mistake for him to make a big move at a 1k pot without being an overwhelming favorite to win the hand. Why? Doubling up on the first hand isn't going to change Nguyen's chances in this tournament very much, but obviously losing all his chips, even if only 5% of the time, is very, very costly to him.

Good luck

cepstrum