QQ against a loose caller

[PrayingMantis]

Hi all,

1-table 33$, blinds 10/20, I'm with T1380. 9 players still around. I hold Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif UTG, and raise to 100. MP (T1610), very very loose, and semi-aggressive, calls. SB (T1690) calls too.

Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, I bet 400. I know MP might call with any bizzare draw, and I want him to pay, not fold. He calls. He can be on practically anything, including hands like J7o. He can also be on the flush draw or some straight draw, of course. SB folds.

Turn: 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

What's your move and why?

PrayingMantis

[PrayingMantis]

Well, 0 replies so far, but I still think it is an interesting hand, and would be glad to get some feedback.

Results:

I decided it's more probable he was on an another hand on the flop, than the 4 to a flush or exactly A4, so I pushed, in order to charge him if he has *now* the 4-flush, or still waiting for something else to hit. I reasoned he might call me with a weaker pair, or fold, which was fine with me. I also knew I might be beaten to the flush, but I didn't want to bet small or check, and by that let him the opportunity to sense weakness and push me out.

He thought for a while and folded.

I don't know exactly how to define my move here. It is something between a bluff, a protection bet and a value bet. I guess it's a combination of all three. (Bluff in the sense that I'm representing I'm not afraid of the flush, although I sure was).

Any thoughts about this move?

PrayingMantis

[Che]

I'm sorry to see that no one has responded to this since I agree that it is a very interesting hand. I hate to see it go by without comment, so here's my two cents...

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I decided it's more probable he was on an another hand on the flop, than the 4 to a flush or exactly A4,

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If he will play any two cards this way, you're probably right. However, the way this has played out I think the probability of a made flush is much higher than random chance would indicate.

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so I pushed, in order to charge him if he has *now* the 4-flush, or still waiting for something else to hit.

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This makes sense given your read. There are lots of hands that have 12 or more outs against you so betting anything less than allin doesn't get it done.

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Any thoughts about this move?

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It's gutsy, to say the least.

Perhaps the reason that no one has commented on this hand is that this is a situation where making the correct decision would be difficult if you had a good read on your opponent, and we clearly do not have that (and you probably don't either this early in the SnG, unless you've played with the villain before).

In the end, I think the decision comes down to whether or not you're willing to risk your remaining ~800 chips to win ~1100 even though you might be drawing dead (flush or straight) or almost dead (set). Since calling and losing will leave the opponent with ~T230, I don't think you'll get a call from a hand you're beating other than AJ and if it's the A /images/graemlins/club.gif, he almost has odds to call so you'd probably prefer he fold.

My gut tells me pushing is +EV but it is hard to say without a better read on the opponent.

BTW I guess this is an example of why you should push in rather than bet the pot if the pot-sized bet is a large chunk of your stack. Pushing in on the flop would have forced your opponent to make a difficult decision on the flop and saved you from having to make this difficult decision on the turn. That doesn't make it right, of course, but that's probably what I would have done.

Here ends my rambling,
Che

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for the reply. That was brave! Yes, you are probably right about this being a very much read-dependant hand. However, many of our decisions in those NL SNGs are based, in some way or another, on reads. And this is not an exception, IMO.

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Perhaps the reason that no one has commented on this hand is that this is a situation where making the correct decision would be difficult if you had a good read on your opponent, and we clearly do not have that (and you probably don't either this early in the SnG, unless you've played with the villain before).


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That was my first game with this guy, and this hand took place at the very end of the first level, so we were playing together for about 10 minutes. True, it is very short time, but with a pretty tight table, you just couldn't miss how this guy plays: he limped and called raises PF from any position, and made some very questionable calls post-flops, won some and lost some and managed to stay a bit above avarage stack. It was obvious he is a very very loose caller, and that was my read of him. On the other hand, I saw him bluff once of twice, and realized he's capable of pushing me out of the hand if I check to him on the turn. Sure enough, he was the 1st or 2nd to bust from this SNG, which is not very surprising (I guess that in other games he becomes early big-stack, and busts on the bubble or something).

That was my read of him. I don't think it's something you can't have after playing 10 minutes with a *this* kind of a player. That's why I posted it here, because I think we all have a general idea of how players like him play.

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Since calling and losing will leave the opponent with ~T230, I don't think you'll get a call from a hand you're beating other than AJ and if it's the A , he almost has odds to call so you'd probably prefer he fold.


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I'm not sure this guy wouldn't call me down with KJ, QJ, or even TJ. TT is also possible, or other PP. Actually, he busted (later on) when calling all-in post flop to an over pair, with his PP, 3rd pair or so. So my read was pretty accurate in that sense. You don't meet many players like this on the 33$ level, that's for sure.

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My gut tells me pushing is +EV but it is hard to say without a better read on the opponent.


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Yes, I beleive the EV here is completely dependant on the read you have of the player. The looser he is, the higher the EV is (he will call with more hand on the flop, i.e., less chances for a flush, and he'll call more on the turn, with hands that you beat). My read of him was of a very very loose caller, and that's why I believe it's a +EV move.

Regarding pushing on the flop - against loose callers I try to break it into smaller bets, in-order to convince them to stay with their garbage. I think they are more ready to make a few smaller mistakes than one big one. I do it sometimes when I suspect a flush draw on the flop. Of course, I'm taking the risk of the flush card falling (like in this case), but usualy it's a good way to make more money out of them, IMO.


Thanks for the good points,

PrayingMantis