QQ on turn when ace falls and its checked to you.

[DcifrThs]

Party 15/30. fairly loose aggressive game, you all know the type. i sit and wait for hands with which i can punish these people. occassionally i'll be in late position and can limp after a few people with a nice suited connector or low pair (in a more passive game id probably raise those a few times to build a pot but any raise seems to trigger many mmore raises).

i'm on the button with qq. utg open raises and its called in 2 places cold by unknown players (this is literally my first time on the button as i just posted big and small blind. even though i was watching the table for some time i didn't see too much from them, they seemed to not show down many hands but simply call and call until they made something and even then they just call with it to let others bet their hands)

so a raise and two calls to me, i 3bet blinds fold all call. 4 players for 3.5+1&2/3 sb's=15&2/3s or just call it 15.

9c7d2h flop, beauty. bet out from utg raiser call call i raise all call. 23sb's on turn=12.5bb's.

Ac falls and its checked to me. what is the action plan here???

do i bet and fold for a c-r?, do i check so i can see the river cheaply and give up the possible 3 big bets here that i could win since they'll just call? do you check here and bet river if checked to? what if your bet into on the river?

betting seems to be both good and bad. good because you will get called by worse hands here and on river BUT by the same token, those passive callers to my right who cold called preflop could easily have an ace and then just call with it forcing me to lose 2 bets where i could lose 1ess by checking.

hmmm. it seems i just answered my own question, or at least realized what had to be the right play. this answer below. i tried to put it in white but it didn't work at all. how does one do that? (i hit color and the code for white came up and i tried many things to try to get the preview post to be white there and none of em worked).


comments?
-Barron





My thoughts now after writing the post:
i should certainly bet here because when i'm wrong and am called by the ace both times i lose two bb's but when i'm right and have the best hand i gain 6 big bets assuming all call both times with less than q's. plus by not checking i don't give a naked king the chance to hit for free (unlikely since only king would do it if i'm not beat already). so it seems the gain when right is >>cost when wrong. and since this is party 15/30 the probability of being right here is higher than normal.

[astroglide]

i think it's important to bet the turn with 3 opponents here because it's quite possible you'll be facing a bet and a raise from a hand without an ace on a blank river. multiple people will call with worse pairs because of the size of the pot. when you're leading in a decent-sized pot and you back down like this, it can prompt people to take serious shots at you (and at each other). if you get raised on the turn it's safe to let it go if one of them cold calls. if that makes it heads up, it depends on your opponent.

[dansalmo]

In a typical situation, I would check the turn and call a bet on the river. Your main reasons to bet turn would be to get more money when you know you are ahead and to prevent people from drawing out on you for free. Neither of these reasons is very strong in this case. Many players will play Ax in a game like this, even for a raise, and a less likely holding of a King is the only over card that can come. If you did bet, you would be lucky if you got raised, because then you could throw it away (you may have also opened yourself up to steal from me), but I have seen may times where the Ax just calls, because he is afraid of your preflop 3 bet, and then checks on the end. By Checking the turn and calling the river, you cost yourself the same amount, but you may induce a lesser hand to bet the river, which is why you must call one bet at the end after checking the turn, unless both other players call, then you have a tough decision.

I would not expect to see more than 1 caller most of the time on the turn with a flop like this. Players with over cards are not going to call once the Ace hits. There just isn't much to draw for with most hands that would be in for two bets. You are either against an Ax, a set or total crap that can not outdraw you by now.

The above allows to lose the same amount as betting when you are already beat, but gives you a free draw o your third queen or a second pair on the board in case the Ax also made two pair, and gives you extra money on the occasion when are ahead and someone bets the lesser hand, which will happen in an aggressive game.

[tpir90036]

depending on the opponents i could see arguments for checking the turn and calling on the end *or* betting the turn and taking a free showdown on the end. i would not bet both streets unless of course i brtually spiked a Q on the river. if you get check-raised and someone else calls i think it's safe to bail out.

i would probably bet the turn and hopefully get a chance to check through on the river. i wouldn't expect to win this hand a vast majority of the time....but the pot is big so it's defintely going to be +EV to show it down....and hopefully for only one more BB.

[DcifrThs]

Well as you can probably tell from my thoughts after the post i was looking to gain many bets here by betting both turn and river. i obviously thought this because i saw everybody's hands. i bet the turn and checked the river but was upset when shown tt, top pair (on flop), and middle pair (on flop) king kicker.

i guess 'upset' isn't the right word because i didn't htink it could POSSIBLY be right to bet it at the time given the ace on board and what not since its the combined probability of all three hands calling with less than a pair of aces. and even though those two cold callers were bad i didn't realize how bad.

Louis Landale or vince lapore in the older archives also sparked a lot of thought after the hand (i read his stuff a while back and continue to do so). one of them used to say in his game that he could bet middle pair on board for value INTO 4 people knowing he'd get called and win!! "CHA-CHING" was the expression used.

i passed up a "CHA-CHING" because i didn't feel confident enough about my situation even though i'm sure this game was similar to that described in those old posts. and if he can BET INTO 4 people and get called in that kinda game, why shouldn't i bet AFTER 3 check to me with better than second button???.

If im wrong here and bet turn all call and then all check and i bet river i cost myself 1 extra bet since i was betting turn either way. but if i'm right i win 3 whole big bets!! thats $90! so how often do i have to be 'right' to make that bet profitable? just more than 33% of the time (if i did it 3 times and was right once thats enough).

anyways, thanks for the help guys
-Barron

[astroglide]

i still think checking the river is correct

[webiggy]

Simple - keep firing bets until someone tells you you're beaten, then call it down to be sure.

[ActionBob]

so it seems the gain when right is >>cost when wrong. and since this is party 15/30 the probability of being right here is higher than normal.

I almost fell off my chair laughing while reading the last part of this statement. How very true it is.

-ActionBob

[ALL1N]

Bet the turn, fold to a checkraise, and check the river.

Only bet the river if:
-a queen falls (obv)
-an ace falls
-you are headsup with the preflop raiser.

[DcifrThs]

glad i could provide you with your exercise for the day as laughing burns more calories than poker /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

-Barron

[Kenrick]

[ QUOTE ]

Ac falls and its checked to me. what is the action plan here???

[/ QUOTE ]

If you show weakness and check the turn, the UTG preflop raiser will probably bet on the river, which you will have to call after checking the turn, so a showdown costs you one bet. If you bet the turn and he calls, he'll probably check again on the river and you can check as well. It's the same one-bet showdown, but betting the turn gives everyone an opportunity to fold against you. And with your preflop reraise, many people will think you have AK (or better), and a bet on the turn will cement that belief.

I'd fold to a checkraise, though.

[astroglide]

betting the turn also has the ability to net more money if a queen falls on the river

[DcifrThs]

that is something i did not consider. although i did bet the turn it was not for this reason.

as i said i was a little disappointed i missed a "CHA-CHING" there but you can't win 'em all. but in this similar situation i will now have a cacauphony of reasons to bet the turn, hitting a set being one i didn't think of prior.
thanks
-Barron

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
betting the turn also has the ability to net more money if a queen falls on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

This has to be balanced by the fact that when you fold to a checkraise, you are giving up this same chance to hit your Q on the river.

[astroglide]

This has to be balanced by the fact that when you fold to a checkraise, you are giving up this same chance to hit your Q on the river.

it doesn't change the decision, so i don't see the need to balance anything.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
This has to be balanced by the fact that when you fold to a checkraise, you are giving up this same chance to hit your Q on the river.

it doesn't change the decision, so i don't see the need to balance anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

This does change the decision. There are frequently situations (though obviously this is more common in NL and PL) where you check because you don't want to get raised and have to give up your outs to win the pot. When you get checkraised with no outs you can fold and be happy about it, when you get checkraised with outs but not enough outs to make the call correct it sucks.

[astroglide]

limit post!

[uuDevil]

If you use BisonBison's hand converter, it can do the results in white thing for you. Of course, it also makes it easier to post and read a hand. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

It is here:
http://www.stompandcrush.com/cgi-bin/hhparser.cgi

If you want to do it manually and the font color buttons don't seem to be working, try inserting your text between the code delimiters:

(color:white) your text here (/color)

Except replace the parentheses () with square brackets []. This should result in (in white):

<font color="white"> your text here</font>

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
i think it's important to bet the turn with 3 opponents here because it's quite possible you'll be facing a bet and a raise from a hand without an ace on a blank river. multiple people will call with worse pairs because of the size of the pot. when you're leading in a decent-sized pot and you back down like this, it can prompt people to take serious shots at you (and at each other). if you get raised on the turn it's safe to let it go if one of them cold calls. if that makes it heads up, it depends on your opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like taking a free card assuming the worst that happens is it's one bet to me on the river, in that case I think this one is easy. As Astro points out though, you're setting yourself up for a really difficult decision on the river by doing this.

With 3 opponents, a check-raise from someone is a pretty reliable indicator of whether or not you're beat, so you're probably unlikely to throw away the best hand because of it. Bet the turn, if you are raised and it's called cold by someone it's an easy fold. If everyone folds to a bet but the last person to act and he decides to raise, I think it's a judgment call. Regardless, your decision on the turn should be a lot clearer than the one you'd have to make on the river after checking across.

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This has to be balanced by the fact that when you fold to a checkraise, you are giving up this same chance to hit your Q on the river.

it doesn't change the decision, so i don't see the need to balance anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

This does change the decision. There are frequently situations (though obviously this is more common in NL and PL) where you check because you don't want to get raised and have to give up your outs to win the pot. When you get checkraised with no outs you can fold and be happy about it, when you get checkraised with outs but not enough outs to make the call correct it sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a lot less important in limit, but you still do have 2 outs by checking when beat compared to none if someone plans on check-raising you.

Having said that, it's unlikely that the 4% of the time you're going to hit your 2 outer when behind and about to be check-raised is going to change a decision like this one, unless you really thought it was a coin flip.

[Ray Zee]

you want to bet here for these reasons.-- most likely you do have the best hand and would want to get the money in if they would call anyway.-- plus what no one i think mentioned is that you bet for one very big reason. that is people dont know if you have made two pair or not and may fold a five outer against you if you bet. with 12.5 bets in the pot you want them to fold these hands and many or most will.
if you get check raised it isnt an auto matic fold either. count the pot. it is getting close to the odds needed to draw out if you are beat. and if you are beat many of those times they have two small pair and you want to stay in then dont you. plus add to that the chance the player suspects you may fold and is raising on a draw or something.
i bet on 4th and the river unless i suspect someone hit the ace from their actions.

[DcifrThs]

This is why i love this forum. without that post, ray, i would not more completly have understood all the reasons to bet here.

this situation is faily common when playing big pairs from late position in loose party 15/30 type games and it is now a situation that i feel much more comfortable with.

its good because its so practical. sometimes i post here very theoretical thoughts that i keep in a kind of vacuum since they interest me and many other people in that theoretical way. but these types of posts are what really adds to your play.

ty all for answering this one.
-Barron