Odds in small blind (Texas holdem)

[PugX]

I'm a new Poker player that mostly play online tournaments. I have a question about probability when I'm in the small blind (also applies to big blind after a raise).

Most times in the blinds you get the common crappy hands, which a tight player dont play. For example 94o. I often pay for seeing the flop when in small blind but I
have a feeling it's is a leak in my play? What do I wan't to get by playing? It's not to flop a pair... 99 top pair weak 4 kicker is really not that great.

I want to get three of a kind with one of my cards or pair both of my cards so I get two-pair.

My questions.

1) How big is the probability for for pairing my both two cards or get my three of a kind?

2) In which way do I calculate this?

Best Regards, Pug

[bigpooch]

Forget about the probabilities here! If you are playing
anything other than 15-30, you should muck 94o in the SB
and even hands like K2o and Q5o if there are limpers in
early or middle position. The exception will only be in
15-30 as the SB is $10 and it's only another $5 to see the
flop unless the BB is a frequent raiser.

Yes, playing 94o routinely in the SB is a big leak in your
play!

Well, if you have two unrelated cards like 94o, you can
enumerate the possibilities of okay flops:

There are C(50,3)=19600 possible flops. Here, I am not
considering what your opponents may limp in with (it's
obvious that they are less likely to hold deuces and threes
rather than queens and jacks!).

1) quads: 2
2) full house: 2x3x3=18
3) trips: 2x3x44=264
4) two pairs: 3x3x44=396

So altogether that's 680 combinations out of 19600 or about
0.03469388 which seems quite dismal. Now, if you were
suited (I am not recommending that you routinely play it if
it were suited, but there is a much better case to play it
in the SB for half a small bet!), there would be some more
flops that would seem favorable:

5) flush: C(11,3)=165
6) flush draw: 39xC(11,2)=2145

Then altogether, there would be 2990 somewhat favorable
flops out of 19600 or about 0.1525510 of them. Thus, it
seems that being suited is a good enough excuse in most
situations to take the flop (one exception would be a very
early position limper who likes to limp in with pairs and
nobody else plays!).

[PugX]

This is great stuff, Exactly what I needed!

It seems that "suited" is a key-word if the blind hand is not one of the normally good hands.

Thank you very much!

Best Regards, Pug

[BradleyT]

Very nice, I need to print this one out!