DcifrThs
03-02-2004, 03:33 AM
since game seleciton (when possible, and on party 15/30 it is) is a large part of anybody's profits, the goal of this post is to start a discussion of how best to approach game selection when many games are available. What objective facts do we have to look at and to what degree should we be looking at them?
Further, how is the best way to go about estimating (what variables are the most probable determinants of) game quality with respect to the cyclical nature of a game.
clearly the value of the game to you (the general you) is the sum of the cost of the mistakes the poor players make (or poorer players make) minus the cost of your mistakes.
now taking that as our dependent variable, why does that value change so much (this is in reference to ONLINE poker games where turnover is very high) through short periods, or rather, how can we best use our superior knowledge of these determinants (if we're lucky enough to isolate and observe them...i want to know which are the most important ones so i can do that) to maximize our earn???
Most people would immediately look for the size of the pot on party since the %seeing flop is not available. i think everyone will agree that there is a striking positive correlation between the # of players on a given waiting list and the size of the average pot for that table. since most people look at that and join long wait lists, they are disapointed when their turn comes up and the game has totally died down.
but sometimes you can join that game and it will pick up quite rapidly...and sometimes it doesn't and you leave.
but what if picking a different average pot size could lead to a higher proportion of times you enter agame closer to its peak (max. value for our dependent variable above)?
this is just a thought, and is meant to trigger discussion but there might be some optimal average pot at which to join a game b/c that correlates with the factors that make a game good. obviously a very aggressive game with MASSIVE pots is not what would maximize our dependent variable because aggressive pots will make our mistakes more costly when we make them even though others are making many mistakes as well. and a too tight game doesn't provide anybody the opportunity to make many mistakes since they're not in many pots.
so i ask, at what point does entrance into a given game tend to maximize the dependent variable above?
By the way, serious thinking about this could yield great dividends for everybody and therefore i wish to state that all serious thought put into this and communicated will be sincerely appreciated.
thanks
-Barron
Further, how is the best way to go about estimating (what variables are the most probable determinants of) game quality with respect to the cyclical nature of a game.
clearly the value of the game to you (the general you) is the sum of the cost of the mistakes the poor players make (or poorer players make) minus the cost of your mistakes.
now taking that as our dependent variable, why does that value change so much (this is in reference to ONLINE poker games where turnover is very high) through short periods, or rather, how can we best use our superior knowledge of these determinants (if we're lucky enough to isolate and observe them...i want to know which are the most important ones so i can do that) to maximize our earn???
Most people would immediately look for the size of the pot on party since the %seeing flop is not available. i think everyone will agree that there is a striking positive correlation between the # of players on a given waiting list and the size of the average pot for that table. since most people look at that and join long wait lists, they are disapointed when their turn comes up and the game has totally died down.
but sometimes you can join that game and it will pick up quite rapidly...and sometimes it doesn't and you leave.
but what if picking a different average pot size could lead to a higher proportion of times you enter agame closer to its peak (max. value for our dependent variable above)?
this is just a thought, and is meant to trigger discussion but there might be some optimal average pot at which to join a game b/c that correlates with the factors that make a game good. obviously a very aggressive game with MASSIVE pots is not what would maximize our dependent variable because aggressive pots will make our mistakes more costly when we make them even though others are making many mistakes as well. and a too tight game doesn't provide anybody the opportunity to make many mistakes since they're not in many pots.
so i ask, at what point does entrance into a given game tend to maximize the dependent variable above?
By the way, serious thinking about this could yield great dividends for everybody and therefore i wish to state that all serious thought put into this and communicated will be sincerely appreciated.
thanks
-Barron