How much can "The Passion of the Christ" earn at the box office?

[Dynasty]

Mel Gibson's film The Passion of the Christ had a very big opening week and weekend. It grossed $117 million in the U.S. in its first five days. $76.2 million came on the weekend. I believe I heard that's the second biggest opening (but, it seems to me that would have to be for non-holiday weekends).

Everytime a new blockbuster comes out, there's discussion among its fans about whether it can break Titanic's box office records of $600 million domestic (http://www.imdb.com/Charts/usatopmovies) and $1.835 billion worldwide (http://www.imdb.com/Charts/worldtopmovies). Usually, I quickly dismiss any possibility of breaking those incredible records.

But, for the first time since Titanic set those records, I think they're in jeopardy of being broken. The Passion of the Christ is obviously a unique film. Unlike the sci-fi/fantasy films which dominate the box office records, Passion has a much broader base of people who are interested in seeing the film. There were lots of stories about people who hadn't been to the theatre to see a film in more than a decade. There were many more stories about church groups seeing the film together.

More importantly, I think this film is going to have incredible legs. Even big films tend to have big opening weekends and then drop off quickly and are out of most theatres two months later. Passion feels like something which is going to be a cultural phenomenon. The interest in the film is only increasing with its success. As it gets more and more positive reviews, I think those who only initially had mild interest in seeing the film are going to be drawn in.

Also, the film is going to have lots and lots of repeat viewings among those who are very religous and are deeply moved by the film. Repeat views from women (and guys taking women out on dates) is what created Titanic's record.

I was sure it was going to take something special to sink Titanic again. This may be it.

[slavic]

I doubt you see it make the year long run that Titanic made. This is the worst date movie ever made.

When you go to see this movie you are in a certain mindset and many of the things that the theater districts live on are not going to be available. Concession sales will not be as high, local food venders won't see the same draw. Mall shopping traffic won't be as high because the dynamics of the people do not fit the normal marketting. So in this aspect I don't think it will last as long.

Now when it goes to video I think it will blow every record ever written. I'm talking more copies sold than AOL distributes CD's. Why? Well the film is causing quite a revival among the Christian community and churches will pay the price to distribute this movie among the masses.

[elwoodblues]

I think the question is whether people will go see it multiple times. My suspicion is that not many will. Titanic, for some unknown reason, had tons of people seeing it multiple times (a friend of mine saw it 7 times in the theatre.)

[gonores]

My prediction is it dies right after Easter. It'll have a great run up till then though.

[andyfox]

I think you may be right. This movie may be considered the most important motion picture since The Birth of a Nation, as well as breaking all box office records.

Assuming Mel Gibson's religious beliefs/passions are sincere, how moral is it for him to have made those awful, racist Lethal Weapon movies, and to make what will probably be hundreds of millions of dollars on The Passion of the Christ?

[Six_of_One]

Interesting...I've never heard Lethal Weapon called racist before. I'm curious, what do you feel makes it so?

[B-Man]

Granted, it's been a long time since I've seen them, but why do you say the Lethal Weapon movies are racist? I haven't heard that claim before.

I have plenty of issues with Mel Gibson as a person (though I do think he's a great actor and director), but that had not been one of them. Please enlighten me.

[Robk]

This movie has some intense support.



As Christians we are called upon by our Lord not only to promote His Kingdom and righteousness (Matt. 6:33) -- the work of cultural renewal and reconstruction -- but also to "strengthen the things that remain" (Rev. 3:2). Here's one way in which we can actually participate in the cultural mandate. Unfortunately, the success of any movie in the eyes of Hollywood studios is determined by the box office numbers of the first two weeks. Many good movies don't make much money and disappear into video oblivion because they don't have the marketing support that big blockbusters do. This makes those good movies harder to produce because the studios don't see the profit in it. Christians are always complaining about how Hollywood doesn't make movies that share their values. Well, the best way to change that is to go to the few movies that do. and buy the videos. You vote with your dollars. Mel Gibson is not releasing his movie through a big studio, so he doesn't have the mega-marketing support behind him. If a ton of people don't see this movie in the first couple weeks of release it may die in the box office.


Here's how we can change all that. Here's how we can be a reforming force of cultural influence. If Christians go see The Passion of the Christ in droves on the first two weeks of its release, then Mr. Gibson will have the box office proof that will enable him to release it to even more theaters (this happened with "sleeper films" like The Blair Witch Project and Memento), and believe it or not, studios will sit up and notice. The Passion of the Christ opens everywhere on February 25, 2004. If you want to make a difference, if you want Hollywood to make more movies with a Christian worldview, then go see The Passion of the Christ within its opening two weeks. Schedule it on your calendar now, so you don't forget. But don't just go by yourself, get a group of friends. And don't just go once, go twice. It's the multiple viewings that skyrocket a film's numbers (i.e., The Lord of the Rings). And last of all, buy the video or DVD when it comes out.


Let's not just critique culture, let's actually transform it by being involved in it. I call that redemptive interaction with culture. I call that The Passion of the Church.

[jokerswild]

Nutcake Christians will spend and spend and spend. It may well mark a revival of apocalyptic believers. I bet that the Christian right will ask Bush to blow up the world so that Jesus can return. I've never heard of any sicker idea in religious thought than those that believe that nuclear holocaust has to transpire before their savior returns.

[slavic]

those that believe that nuclear holocaust has to transpire before their savior returns

umm who believes this?

[jokerswild]

Many Chrisitan sects, inluding Catholics , advocate cannibalism. They believe in eating Jesus, This has to be the 2nd sickest religious idea ever concocted.

[andyfox]

The last time I saw one on TV, Gibson's and Glover's characters busted into some kind of restaurant and Gibson talked about "flied lice" to a Chinese bad guy and otherwise made fun of the Asian characters because they were Asian.

I think Gibson's a great filmmaker. Obviously the movie he directed that won the Oscar and for which he won the best director award was a prime example (Braveheart), but a little movie he made, The Man Without a Face, was, IMO, also superb. I'm less impressed by his acting skills.

[andyfox]

See my reply to B-Man.

[slavic]

aiyaa, you are very misguided person. Many people make much more of revelations than what is there. No problem it makes for good film, but to say it says that Christ's return will be in a nuclear apocalypse is likely misguided. There are 3 views debated on the book and the more popular two are kind of, well, boring. Oh well. [It's been a while since I studied the churches views on the book so new theories are possible.]

As for cannibalism. um no, the sacraments are presented to remind Christian of the sacrafice taken in the name of their sins. It is not the actual eating of the flesh, and even at the last supper Jesus did not widdle of pieces of himself to pass around the table.

The religion itself is quite eligant, it is very simple compared to early religions [try being a Pagan], the end game is quite well worth it, and the main commandment is quite simple, Love.

Now if you want to get into things that the different organized churches have done over time, and some continue to do, well yes there are some screwy things there. [if not flat out evil]

I think your main dig was to go after the Baptist or more likely the Southern Baptist and their constant driving of the thought of the "Second Death". I have great reservations with the idea that you have to scare people into being good. Some you do but they won't likely be sitting in church anyway and I find this method of ministering misguided.

[jokerswild]

No, I've simply been preached at my Revelations crack pots..

Bush himself is one of these apocalyptic persons. He is very misguided. So are all apocalyptic Christians. If Christians love, then I'd hate to see what they call hate. They murder. That is what they do historically. They murder in the name of their lord. They then reject responsibility for murder by claiming Jesus assumes responsibility for their sins. They kill and ask Jesus to forgive them if they have a conscious. If they have no conscious, then they claim that they did the murder victim a favor by saving the soul instead of the body. They are mentally ill. The millenia of pogroms have been filled with the same prejudiced tone of Gibson's film. I think Gibson is a true believer, yet his father denies the holocaust. Perhaps Gibson is just relating his upbringing in casting the Jews as evil and the ROmans as benevolent. Nothing could be further from the truth. The end game is a make believe fantasy, just as the supposed resurrection of Yeshua.

Christians are much more deluded than any pagan that I've ever met.They don't even use the given name in addressing their lord. His given name , Yeshua, is Jewish. Jesus is a Greek name. Clearly, the Christians "love" so much that they can't stand to use a Jewish name to describe a Jew.

[MMMMMM]

I don't think mild racial jokes are always or necessarily racist; I think they are either: 1) in bad taste and not funny, and hurtful, or 2) in good taste and funny, and not hurtful. Since I didn't see [/i]Lethal Weapon[/i] I can't comment on the joke(s) you mention, but...I think you might be overreacting a bit if you automatically categorize ALL racial jokes as bad and hurtful (which simply isn't so, else how could people tell racial jokes of [/i]their own[/i] race and be funny and not offensive about it?)

I suppose there are also even some who would find John Cleese's [/i]Ministry of Silly Walks[/i], or his sketch of the Village Idiot and the Country Idiot, highly offensive somehow (not you, though, I would presume;-)). Humor is by its very nature usually making fun of someone; is it so bad to make fun of a odd accent or difference? I really think most racial jokes are offensive or not depending primarily on the spirit in which they are presented. Caricatures usually exist for a reason; whether the caricature is presented in a good spirit or a mean spirit often makes all the difference, IMO.

Also, I don't know when Lethal Weapon came out, but I did read that before Gibson became very religious, he lived a lifestyle in Hollywood of which he was ashamed and did many things he would not do today.

[baggins]

[ QUOTE ]
Nutcake Christians will spend and spend and spend. It may well mark a revival of apocalyptic believers. I bet that the Christian right will ask Bush to blow up the world so that Jesus can return. I've never heard of any sicker idea in religious thought than those that believe that nuclear holocaust has to transpire before their savior returns.

[/ QUOTE ]

most of us don't believe this. but, then again, you were talking abou the nutcake Christians...

[Dynasty]

Passion of the Christ has been out three weeks and is going very strong. Passion is at about $264 million and ranked 23rd all-time in the U.S. box office. It is only a little behind the pace set by Lord of the Rings: Return of the King which is currently 6th all-time and climbing.

Passion of the Christ

Week 1: 125,185,971
Week 2: 88,702,769
Week 3: 50,111,260 (total: 264,000,000)- estimate

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

Week 1: 124,100,534
Week 2: 98,168,174
Week 3: 68,142,253 (total: 290,410,961)
Week 4: 21,909,975
Week 5: 16,719,457

After three weeks, LotR: RotK started to slow down considerably. I think Passion has stronger legs. The next few weeks should be a good indication of how far the film could go.

[DonWaade]

not me, only a "nutcake" could believe this

[DonWaade]

I dont think that this is true. I know of SEVERAL Christians that will not see this movie soley because their faith is such that they already "know" (agree to disagree) what happened and therefore do not need, or rather, wish to see it "re-broadcast." All of that being said, I do not believe it will be as big as Titanic when comparing tickets sold. However, it will be bigger because of DVD sales and rents.

[andyfox]

I heard an estimate of perhaps $400,000,000 in domestic gross B.O. Seems low to me, what with Easter coming up.

Poor Mel, he put up $25,000,000 of his own dough. Jesus Christ, he's going to make a fortune.

[elwoodblues]

I guess that means we can expect The Passion II - God Strikes Back

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Poor Mel, he put up $25,000,000 of his own dough. Jesus Christ, he's going to make a fortune.

[/ QUOTE ]

A film industry analayst said he expected Mel Gibson to net $500 million dollars just from the worldwide box office. This guy expected a $1 billion box office gross.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
I heard an estimate of perhaps $400,000,000 in domestic gross B.O. Seems low to me, what with Easter coming up.

Poor Mel, he put up $25,000,000 of his own dough. Jesus Christ, he's going to make a fortune.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nicely done Andy. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[andyfox]

"Mel Gibson to net $500 million"

The meek might inherit the earth, but they'll have to rent portions of it from Gibson. Planned or not, the greatest PR campaign for a movie I've seen in my lifetime, with the possible exception of The Godfather.