substantial vs expected string of losses

[jaydoggie]

in my last 13 games i havent finished in 1st once.

1) 4th. KQ vs 55 cf
2) 3rd. AJ vs 55 cf
3) 5th. A8s vs KK 30%
4) 6th. 99 vs 66 allinpreflop 85%
5) 3rd. blinded to desperation
6) 2nd. no complaints
7) 7th. ATs vs QJs 60% (same suit)
8) 6th. KQ vs A6o 40%
9) 4th. top pair vs middle pair pushed on flop. he rivered 2 pair.
10) 3rd. AKs vs QJs (same suit) 66%
11) 9th. AQ vs Q7 flop Q77. see post "two quick questions"
12) 4th. Q8 vs KQ flop 9TJ
13) 9th. QQ vs AKo 400 preflop. flop was 9 high i pushed he called. river K.

just a run of bad fortune, beings i have had strings of good fortune? (placing 1st 6 of 7) or is it possible theres a leak in my game.

in addition my previous 56 games i finished
1st 15
2nd 9
3rd 4



P.S. live single table tournament, i play ultra tight aggressive for 2 hours. 1600 in chips. blinds 30/60. i raise to 200 utg with QQ. mp raises to 400. i push. he calls with 55 same suits as my QQ. sucks out a 5 on the turn to cut the story short. blah then i come home to this losing streak.

[t_perkin]

No obvious pattern - that is not too much of a bad run it can get a lot worse /images/graemlins/smile.gif

no. 3 and no. 8 were probably a mistake - but very hard to tell with any of them without more detail.

Tim

[Crispyk]

I'm having a similar problem, In my last 20 games or so i've all in'd with the best hand probably 17-20 times and won only about 40% of the time. AK vs KQ -lose, A10 vs A5, lost, QQ vs 77 =lost, AK vs 55 after K on the flop - lost, AA vs 33 = lost, Q10 vs Q4 = lost, and so on and so on, i've looked up the statistics i'm between 60-80% favorite in every hand. I watched the WPT a few weeks back, 5 or 6 all in's the better hand when flipped over never lost. I played in a home game about 2 weeks ago also, 7 or 8 all ins, best hand won 100% of the time. I watch all the time as people get outdrawn, I'm like Ouch man oh mighty that sucks for that guy. But why in the hell does it happen so freakin often?, More then the statistics say it should. People always tell me, "over time things will even out" but as of yet, that hasn't happened. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jaydoggie]

i definately see alot more harsh beats on pokerstars than i see on dynamitepoker, home games, tv, so on. occassionally someone makes a horrible call and backdoors a straight/flush but not near as much as i see it happen on stars.

people can agree or disagree all they like, or give me any reasoning they want, but i know in a live game when i push with a set, top pair mediaocre kicker doesnt runner runner me or anyone else as it does on stars. or underpairs moving in on the flop and hitting a running flush. somethings going on whether it be in or out of pokerstars control.

[Poker Jon]

Jay,

I have to say that i went through exactly what you are going through at the turn of the year. Every single time when I had the best hand pre or post flop someone would suck out on me.

It can leave you in desperation!! However looking back at my stats again, you do begin to realise that things even eachother out.

In my last 7 tourneys (1 and 2 table SNG's on Stars) I have won 5 and come third in another. The only time I lost was on a previous post here, where my two pair Q's and 6's on the flop was beaten by trips Q's - it happens.

I look back at my last 5 victories, and it seems I have won the important coin flips about 80% of the time - I even managed to beat AA with QJs when the short stack and on the button (QJ10 flop - nice). But when I look back at my series of losses, I lost all the coinflips and got outdrawn so many times it was unreal - I didn't place in a SNG for about 9 SNG's, had a third place, then continued for another 6 SNG's before getting a 2nd place - I bubbled, 5 times in that period as well.

If things arn't going your way, do what I did, leave it for a few days (maybe a week) then come back and drop down a level, play tight but aggresively and things will come back.

The worst thing about going on a bad run, is that you start to doubt your ability in judging other peoples hands. If you think you have the best of it then believe you have the best of it and don't be afraid of the niggling doubts in your mind.

Hope this helps

Jon