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View Full Version : "I don't want to play against fish" (Rant #5)


Lori
02-27-2004, 10:15 PM
Okay, for those who don't know me yet, I mean no offense.
For goodness sakes don't stop asking questions because of anything I post, almost everyone here is more polite than me, and anyway, I'm just a visitor in this forum.

Anyway, this one is for those of you that don't want to play against idiots.

I've posted about idiots before, there are different breeds of idiot.

idiots (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=537 833&Forum=All_Forums&Words=idiots&Match=Entire%20P hrase&Searchpage=1&Limit=25&Old=2weeks&Main=535989 &Search=true#Post537833)

Anyway, assuming you can change your style, you always always want to be playing against idiots.

"But Lori, idiots hit their hands more often"

Well, I concede, idiots might seem to raise your varience, but as they also raise your win rate this cancels out your downside to some degree.

Today's analogy is a field goal kicker.
Imagine you are the best field goal kicker in the world.
You and some other kickers get together and have a bet.
Each of you puts $1000 into the kitty, and all successful attempts get a split of the money.
The kick takes place in a dome from 27 yards (Is that still the 10 yard line? anyway, it's a short kick and you get to have someone hold the ball for you)

So you line up with the kicking idiots, and every time someone misses, very nice $111 per kick win rate, you never miss, you're the world's best.

Suddenly one of the idiots works it out, he doesn't want to kick with you anymore, you never miss, why should he.
Next thing you know the idiots have demanded the dome be taken off and you play in the howling wind and kick 45 yards.

Of course, you don't get 100% anymore, in fact sometimes the wind is so stupid it blows the ball into the crowd.
However, you still adjust better to the conditions than the idiots and score maybe 5/10 to their 2/10
Edit: for numbers to work, the idiots score 2/9

Now, when you score, you are picking up $333, but you are only doing it half of the time.
It's still $166.5 per kick, even though sometimes your ball ends in the crowd and sometimes an idiot scores wind assisted.

Even better, the idiots now see you can be beaten, they want to play you more often. You hear them chatting "Ha, clever-pants over there can't beat us nearly so often anymore"

The moral to the story is, if you are the best player, the harder it is for you, the harder still it is for the idiots.
Seek out those idiots who like to make it hard for themselves and raise with their 27o.
Don't play against the idiots who make it easy by playing closer to the book, just do your best in the wind.
Next time the wind catches your ball and sends it wide, remember that it is the very thing that is making you even more money than you were before AND it's making you more popular.

Dont ask for the dome back.

Lori

Gramps
02-27-2004, 10:28 PM
Exactly.

How about you're the house in a craps game. The good players play the pass line, and when they can bet odds on their numbers, they make the max bet (since that's an even money bet). Your edge overall is less than 1%.

Now an idiot comes along and only puts bets down on whether double 6s will be rolled or not, getting 30 to 1 on his money. For every $36 bet bets, you're getting $5 positive expectation, way more than the Pass Line players.

If he spikes a couple of rolls back to back, that may really suck, and the variance swings could be brutal, but you REALLY want this "customer" in the long run. Don't berate him and make him go away.

MaxPower
02-27-2004, 11:11 PM
Nice post and good analogy.

Unfortunately, we will continue to see these types of "I can't beat the fish" posts, because people get frustrated and think that losing a hand is a tragedy.

CrackerZack
02-28-2004, 12:44 AM
Um... I didn't think the Britains knew what a place kicker was.