Wingnut
02-27-2004, 11:53 AM
Party $10+1 SNG. Blinds are 15/30 (level 2), there are 8 players left. I have the smallest stack on the table (T605), about half of "villian", and about 1/3 of chip leader.
I am UTG with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I raise to 120, all fold to villian on button who calls, blinds fold.
Flop A /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Here is my thought process. From what I've seen of this players play, the likelihood of calling a 4xBB raise with just two suited cards (or exactly 54) is very low. He has been mostly limping into pots, but calling raises with pocket pairs and maybe big As.
So I figure I'm either way behind, or comfortably ahead. If I'm behind (to a set or made flush), I'm dead to perfect-perfect. If he has a PP (w/o a set), he has 2 outs, 11 if he has a single heart. If he has a big A, he's got 3 outs, or 12 if he has a heart.
Pot is 275, I have 485 left, and he has me well-covered. I figure that this is either an all-in or check-fold situation, because I don't think I can possibly call any kind of bet over the minimum.
Was this a good thought process, or am I missing something fundamental? Results in white:
<font color="white"> I push in, villian calls. Qh on the turn [board is Ah2h3hQh], villian has AcJh and I go out in 8th. Guess he had 12 outs and called a 3-to-1 shot getting barely 3-to-2. </font>
Thanks,
-David
I am UTG with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I raise to 120, all fold to villian on button who calls, blinds fold.
Flop A /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Here is my thought process. From what I've seen of this players play, the likelihood of calling a 4xBB raise with just two suited cards (or exactly 54) is very low. He has been mostly limping into pots, but calling raises with pocket pairs and maybe big As.
So I figure I'm either way behind, or comfortably ahead. If I'm behind (to a set or made flush), I'm dead to perfect-perfect. If he has a PP (w/o a set), he has 2 outs, 11 if he has a single heart. If he has a big A, he's got 3 outs, or 12 if he has a heart.
Pot is 275, I have 485 left, and he has me well-covered. I figure that this is either an all-in or check-fold situation, because I don't think I can possibly call any kind of bet over the minimum.
Was this a good thought process, or am I missing something fundamental? Results in white:
<font color="white"> I push in, villian calls. Qh on the turn [board is Ah2h3hQh], villian has AcJh and I go out in 8th. Guess he had 12 outs and called a 3-to-1 shot getting barely 3-to-2. </font>
Thanks,
-David