Big Slick Decision

[Prickly Pete]

Party $100 NLHE SNG. 7 Left, blinds 50-100. 3 with 2000 chips (including me) and 4 with 1000.

Fold, fold and a raise to 500 (seems like a reasonable player, but no solid read). Folded to me on button with AKo. What would you do in this situation and why?

[La Brujita]

This is a very tough hand you posted. What makes it difficutlt for me is the bet to you is 25% of your stack and in many instances you may be holding the worst hand. I guess the following are your range of reasonable choices:

1. Fold
2. Raise all in
3. Flat call and bet any flop
4. Flat call and bet any flop with A or K

The difficulty I have with the hand is a solid player would likely make that raise only on a steal (maybe unlikely from ep at this stage of the game) or with JJ through AA or AK. I assume he has 2000 chips to start (and not 1000).

If you reraise all in, it seems like he will call when you are a huge dog or release in the unlikely event he is bluffing.

A flat call and no A or K on the flop leaves you vulnerable to any PP, an A or a K and he may have flopped a monster.

Don't know it this is a weak tight play but I muck here and wait for a better spot.

Regards

[Prickly Pete]

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I assume he has 2000 chips to start (and not 1000

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Your assumption is correct - I forgot to mention that.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I would fold as well, I would probably consider playing if the AK was suited. AK is a hand that gets me in a lot of trouble, especially not suited. With this hand I would much rather lead with a big bet, then call one.

[Bluff1]

I acutally call with this hand. You have position on him and can crush him if the flop is to your liking, get out if the flop is scary, and bluff him should he decided to check. For me I call with this hand.

[steeser]

It would depend on my read of the player, but I definitely at least call with this hand. The bet screams of 99-JJ to me. So raise all-in with what you think may be a coin flip, or call and see a flop and play from there. I think it's too weak tight to much though. At this stage of the tourney, this raise could be made with AJ or AQ as well.

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
The difficulty I have with the hand is a solid player would likely make that raise only on a steal (maybe unlikely from ep at this stage of the game) or with JJ through AA or AK.

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Good point, and good response, but I think it's a little too facile; IMO the analyis is a little more involved. I think the move is to push here.

Brujita assumes a solid player, per the original post. But the original post also indicated no solid read. If it's NOT a solid player and the raise was made with less than a premium holding then moving all in will probably get a fold.

Now, if the raiser is in fact solid, then I agree he likely would make the raise he did only with the hands you list (although if it were a slightly more LAG solid player, and depending on the table texture you might add TT and AQ to the list). Now, let's think about what a solid player would do with each of those hands if he were faced with an all-in raise at this point in the tourney. He'd obviously call with AA. Probably call with KK as well. QQ-JJ is, I think, UNlikely, if the player really is solid and if your table image is reasonable. A solid player would probably fold AK and AQ. Since there are only 3 ways to make AA and 3 to make KK (since you have an A and a K in your hand), it's considerably more likely that he holds QQ, JJ, AK, or maybe something like AQ or TT, all of which he's likely to fold and which, even if he doesn't, you're either way ahead of or only slightly behind.

So, my inclination would be to move all in, but it's a tough call to make when the raiser has you essentially covered.

Add one last consideration: how much better than the table are you? If you are much better then maybe you don't push this edge here.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[Bluff1]

I still think a call is in order his positional advantage is just too great here. The raise does seem odd I will give you that. But the raiser only has 2000 and raised 500 so he probably has something he likes. If Pete calls and the flop is not to his liking he can get away for 500 and still have 1500.

If the flop is to Pete’s liking then he has a couple options.
The raiser might bet and therefore Pete can play the hand accordingly; either raising or waiting to the turn to get even more money in the pot.

If the raiser checks, Pete can check behind him to induce a bluff at the turn. A lot of players will check an A or K high flop, with an underpair, and bet the turn if it’s checked back to them.

We also can’t rule out the raiser my have Aq, or Aj and will be unable to release his hand if an ace flops. But he might fold these hands, which you really want him to play, if you move all in on him.

[Prickly Pete]

I ended up calling and the blinds folded. The flop came JT4 rainbow. He bets 500 and I fold.

I know this is results-oriented, but it stuck with me later as I was bubbling out in 4th that those extra 500 chips would have been helpful.

I think that folding or raising allin would've maybe both been better options, since I'm only going to hit my hand 1 out of 3 times on the flop.

Would anyone continue with the hand after the flop bet? I felt like the only hand I could be ahead of would be AQ and that would be wishful thinking to expect him to have that.

[La Brujita]

Interesting thread. Hockey, definitely the thinking is more involved than as set forth in my response, I was hoping to give a reasonably detailed response in a short time.

Just wanted to add one or two other thoughts:

1. As someone else mentioned, the raise amount is a bit odd. If he were trying to steal wouldn't 3-4x the bb do it for him?

2. Just a wild shot in the dark but this indicates a hand he likes but doesn't want a call with ie JJ or QQ. I don't know about you all but I rarely fold QQ to a reraise against internet oppostion. In the WSOP I would, but in my experience I have found to many shoddy hands playing back at me.

3. You have postion but it is not as helpful since the money is shallow and you will only have it for one more round. Position is best when you have it for all rounds of betting.

I try not to get results oriented Pete, but what happened (a flat call, a flop that missed and a big bet) is the most frequent scenario, it has happened to me many times and it is damn difficult to call with AK.

Again, very interesting thread.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Pete,

I'd call. I don't like to raise huge on AK early, as with deep money I play AK as a drawing hand. On shallow money, and especially short-handed, it's a monster. But early on, it's only Ace-high.

I read the results, and I don't think you should beat yourself up over this one. Folding AK on the button vs. only one raiser is, to my mind, a mistake. You had to give the hand a chance. It missed. You got out. That happens.

And while you're kicking yourself over the 500 chips you called off there, you might as easily be kicking yourself if you'd folded, wondering if you might have had a few more chips to get through the bubble if you'd just played that AK on the button....

Cris